Mark this in your diary – August 2nd, 12:30am AEST. It’s the start time for the biggest sporting event this year: Frankel versus Black Caviar.
A clash between the undefeated world number one Frankel and Australia’s unbeaten wonder mare Black Caviar is yet to be confirmed but it’s becoming blatantly obvious that if the match race is to ever occur it will be in the 2012 Sussex Stakes.
The Sussex Stakes is run over 1609 metres on a one-turn track at Goodwood Racecourse in West Sussex, England. It is the showpiece event of the annual Glorious Goodwood Carnival.
Frankel won the 2011 Sussex and is scheduled to defend his crown at this year’s meeting.
Black Caviar’s trainer Peter Moody has declared that if his mare – who has competed at a maximum distance of 1400 metres – was to race at a mile while in England it would only be in the Sussex.
And to help seal the deal, owner of Dunaden – the winner of last year’s Melbourne Cup – Sheik Fahad Al Thani, has guaranteed a one million pound prize packet for the race.
But who would prevail? Would Frankel affirm his world number one rating with victory or would Black Caviar reign supreme and be welcomed into immortality by Phar Lap, Makybe Diva and company as a legend of Australian racing?
The contrast of styles between five-year old mare Black Caviar and four-year old colt Frankel is alarming.
Frankel (trained by Sir Henry Cecil and ridden by Tom Queally) is a bold front runner that likes to be in control. Frankel (a winner from 1408 to 1609 metres) takes his opponents out of their comfort zone by sprinting off an ever-increasing tempo. He has the aerobic capacity and acceleration to soul-destroy his opponents.
Black Caviar (trained by Peter Moody and ridden by Luke Nolen) has an engine like no horse to have ever graced the turf. She goes through the gears like a Formula 1 car. Black Caviar has a higher cruising speed than any opponent she has met. With doubt, Black Caviar (having reached a top speed of 72 kilometres per hour) is the fastest professional athlete in the world.
But at a distance of a mile, it will be Black Caviar’s ability to stay, not her speed that will decide the result of this race.
Because, as far as I’m concerned, if Black Caviar does not run out a strong 1609 metres, not only will she suffer defeat but she will get destroyed by Frankel.
Frankel’s victory in the 2011 Sussex is arguably the most dominant win against world-class horses in any country, by any horse, in the modern era.
Frankel met the then world-number three Canford Cliffs. It was meant to a closely-fought contest.
After enjoying a soft lead through the first 600 metres, Queally steadily increased the tempo over the final five furlongs and Frankel came clear in the straight to win by a widening margin of five lengths.
Having had an easy run behind Frankel, Canford Cliffs – a five-time Group One winner – speared to the outside of the track in the final 200 metres. Quite clearly, Canford Cliffs’ spirit was broken.
With the obvious distance query, Nolen cannot afford to race on Frankel’s tail in the Sussex. If Black Caviar is forced to chase over the final 1000 metres, she may crack at her first try over the mile.
Black Caviar, therefore, must race from the front.
The 2011 St James’ Palace Stakes during Royal Ascot was the last time Frankel was led in a race.
Cecil employed a pacemaker for Frankel and after being ridden ‘with a sit’, the undefeated colt was flat in the final furlong, hanging on to win by the relatively slender margin of three-quarters of a length.
Black Caviar has the natural early speed to lead Frankel. She is coming from Australia where races are generally run quickly at the start and at the finish. The middle section of a race is often the slowest.
Conversely, however, the pace in a lot of European races progressively increases from a slow tempo at the beginning. That means Frankel would not be comfortable running the first 600 metres of a race in the time Black Caviar usually does.
If Black Caviar was able to get an easy lead she would be incredibly difficult to get past. So who wins?
If Frankel is allowed to control proceedings as he did in the 2011 Sussex, not only will he win but he could smash Black Caviar.
To beat Frankel, Black Caviar must lead.
And if Black Caviar got an uncontested lead, I believe she would run out a strong mile and have too much speed for Frankel in the straight.
Ideally, Black Caviar leads with Frankel applying the acid test, on her outside, from the 1200 metre-mark. Such tactics would not only leave both horses partially exposed but would give them a relatively even chance at victory. And in such a scenario, the winner (most likely Frankel) would undoubtedly prove themselves to be the best.
Tactics will decide the result of this race. Black Caviar is a more versatile horse because she can lead or chase from behind. That versatility means Black Caviar is perfectly suited in a strategic affair. But Frankel is severely advanced by having the race run at his favourite distance.
My heart says Black Caviar wins but my head says there’s more chance of a Frankel victory.
All we need now is for the race to eventuate!
Makybe
Guest
Hi there, I am not a punter but I am trying to find out why Frankel is considered the World Number One and Black Caviar is only a wonder? She has won 22 now.. does that help?
Bill
Guest
Yeats was probably the best horse sent to compete in the Melbourne Cup, although for some inexplicable reason he ran well below his true form. The vast majority of European based horses that compete in Australia are not top class. Americain, Dunaden, Manighar et al were very average middle distance performers in Europe. The truly top class animals trained in Europe are trained with the English Derby, King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and America's Breeders Cup in mind. The good staying handicappers and group 2 & 3 stayers are usually the ones aimed for the Melbourne Cup. Our top stayer at the moment is Aidan O'Brien's Fame and Glory, last year's Ascot Gold Cup winner and current favourite for this year's race.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
They get tried at middle distance because thats what they are bred for. The whole European breeding industry is built around the middle distance races because they are the most prestigious and hence have the most prize money and stud value for the horses. Coolmore, the Aga Khan,Godophin and all the other Sheikhs are in racing to win the Derby, the Arc, the Guineas, the Eclipse, the King George and Queen Elizabeth diamond stakes,the Champion stakes, the Breeders Cup races, the Dubai World Cup and Hong Kong to name a few. If they win staying races with these horses such as the Ascot Gold Cup or the Melbourne Cup its incidental. They generally don't breed horses for these races. Yeats winner of the Ascot Gold Cup was bred for Derby distance, he was not fast enough for this distance so he was put in the staying races.
Ben Z
Guest
Some great horses can run middle distance and stay some great horses can run middle distance but can't stay and some great horses can stay but can't run middle distance. Has it also occurred to you that in Europe there is more prize money in middle distance than in staying meaning that borderline horses will get tried at middle distance and when they don't do as well get moved back to staying distances and prove to do alright?
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Maybe its not the belief in Australia but I think as do most of those who follow European racing that a true test of a horses class is at the middle distances. At these distances a horse has to show both speed and stamina, this why the majority of the best races worlwide are at middle distance 1800-2400m. The majority of European horses are bred for this distance and if they are too slow or not progressive enough they are put in the staying races. Thats not to say there hasnt been good stayers, Yeats and Vinnie Roe were good horses back home but they wouldn't be rated as high as top middle distance horses, no matter what they did on the race track. As for Manighar I have enough said about a horse Timeform have rated 126, that means he's an average Group 1 winner.
Ben Z
Guest
I think we would have to say that the Europeans would always be bringing their best Stayers to the Melbourne Cup carnival but their isn't much point in international contenders bringing middle distance horses out for the most part. However to say that they aren't the best horse in the stable is hard to determine. Trying to determine who is the better athlete out of a middle distance horse and a long distance horse is kinda hard because they might meet but never at optimum distances. Look Bauer ran well and was so close to winning the Melbourne cup that we should cut the stable some slack (yes I understand that I'm contradicting myself) and he was one of the first horses to almost pull off the Melbourne-Geelong Cup double but he bought out Manighar and Manighar sucked even in Australia. Now: http://www.theage.com.au/sport/horseracing/punters-only-have-eyes-for-manighar-20120517-1ytle.html
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Bauer won the Geelong Cup in 2008. Bauer was a handy enough handicapper over the years but nothing special. He wouldn't of been the best horse in Cumani's stable last year or back in 2008. Generally the horses the European trainers brought to the Melbourne Cup wouldn't of been their best in the stable. They'd be handy stayers and handicappers but the trainers would probably have better horses at middle distance. The exception to this would probably be Dermot Weld with Vintage Crop and Vinnie Roe ( placed in the Melbourne Cup at a big weight). These were the best horses he had in training at the time.
Ben Z
Guest
Except that those handful of runners have been the best he can bring. But I don't think there is anyway an Australian can argue there 3000m horses are the best in the world outside of a couple of freakish occurrences at the moment.The focus on sprint racing and fact that sprinters race earlier than stayers probably makes them more attractive to owners and until something changes in the schedule and there are more longer distance group 1's this is unlikely to change.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Maybe, I would have thought a 2nd in a Melbourne Cup is not a bad return for a trainer whos probably had a handful of runners in Australia over the years.
Ben Z
Guest
No I'm not saying he isn't a good trainer I'm saying something about his routine didn't work for Manighar and the horse is travelling much better with Peter Moody. As well as he hasn't won in Australia. Clearly there is something that happens here that beats him.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
I'm not sure, I remember Bauer came 2nd in a Melbourne Cup I was at in 2008. Look it up yourself. Whats your point anyway, if he hasn't won in Australia he has no value as a trainer? How insular is that.
Ben Z
Guest
I concede your point though. It would however point to the fact that he has never been able to train a horse to run in Australian conditions and his methods did not suit Manighar. As Manighar is not that old he would have been young when he was trained by De Royer-Dupre but it is possible that he is a quirky horse who was able to be unlocked by Peter Moody. There are plenty of horses across three hundred years of racing who a new approach has got the best out of. It might simply be a change in the stable routine. Horses are very interesting animals and sometimes the smallest issues make a large difference. For instance a horse is coughing consistently but is not sick. Its worrying and it needs to be solved and then one day you witness it shoving its head in a round bail. Problem solved. The horse coughs because the dust from the round bail creates a minor allergic reaction when it shoves its head into the bail. What vet would think of that? Maybe Manighar walks further to the truck. Maybe his oats are of a different kind. Training horses is about far more than just working them. (The round bail example doesn't apply to most racehorses but is an example of the small things counting)
Ben Z
Guest
Thats wondeful for him but I did ask what he has won in Australia did I not?
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Bauer best days are behind him alright. Luca Cumani has had Group 1 winners in Hong Kong, Japan, U.K, France, Ireland, Dubai and the Breeders Cup. Plus his daughter Francesca is hot so hes not a bad sire himself.
Ben Z
Guest
Thank you for correcting me however has Luca Cumani ever won anything in Australia. Yes I accept Bauer was good but their attempt to run him in the Melbourne Cup last year as a 9 year old was slightly ridiculous.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Manighar was trained first by A De Royer-Dupre (trained Americain to a Melbourne Cup) and then Luca Cumani. These 2 a top class trainers so if they thought Manighar had the class and speed for middle distance he wouldn't of been racing in stayers races. Yeh I agree with you So You Thinks 3rd in the Melbourne carrying a big weight at that distance was very impressive. Whether Bart Cummings is better than Aidan O'Brien, these things are opinions.
Ben Z
Guest
Manighar had one trainer in Europe? And So You Think ran 3rd in the Melbourne cup as a three year old. A week and a half after winning the cox plate. Aiden O'brien is not as good a trainer as Bart its a fact.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Granted a change in trainer can improve a horses form but theres not a trainer in Europe that could get Manighar winning or even challenging for European Group 1 races at 2000m. He was an average stayer, now hes a top middle distance horse over here, these are facts. Maybe Cummings could of done a better job with So You Think than Aidan O'Brien, who knows. But who had So You Think beaten in Australia? Inconsistent performers like Descarado and Zipping. Last year he came up against better horses, some of them he defeated and some of them defeated him. Theres no disputing he's still a very good horse, I enjoyed watching him, but hes not the wonder horse he was over here. I love watching Black Caviar, her effortless changing through the gears is awesome, but she'll never be rated number 1 horse in the world by beating the average performers she has met lately.
Ben Z
Guest
It is very true that Black Caviar's form over longer distance is unknown but one could argue her potential at shorter distances is unknown as well given the ease she has managed to canter in with several times. i'm talking about her best day ever stuff. Also she looks pretty comfortable over 1400 and she has until august to add the extra furlong. It should be a good race but the unknown is the unknown for a reason. Also if the race was taking place in Australia the odds would be reversed so I think they have have to be viewed with some caution.
Ben Z
Guest
Horses aren't like humans. They do improve that much. The effect a change in trainer can have on a horse is evident. For example if "So You Think' was still trained by Cummings and the old bloke had taken him overseas his form would look a lot better. This 'your group 1 horses wouldn't win our group 1 races' is ridiculous. The rating system may be fair but it still overlooks the fact that Black Caviar has won 21 races in a country where sprinters are regarded as the best in the world. If an Australian sprinter that good can't get number one then how the bloody hell does a stayer? I don't know if you've watched Black Caviar race, but if you haven't you need to.