With so much emphasis on the upcoming Ashes, one would be forgiven for failing to realise that Australia will take on South Africa in three home Tests in November.
The national team won’t travel to England until next year June. The reports we keep hearing, like that Ricky Ponting will play on until the Ashes, are made even though no-one can be sure that he will survive South Africa.
It is almost as if South Africa’s visit, and the other Test matches until then, are mere tune-ups for the all-important Ashes series.
One could understand if it were Bangladesh, or Zimbabwe, or even the West Indies that were scheduled to visit, but South Africa is a most formidable side. And considering the difficulty Australia had in disposing of West Indies recently, they should be worried about their prospects.
My thinking is that their batting unit will have a difficult time repelling a very good South African pace bowling attack.
Armed with a new ball, Dale Steyn is one of the most lethal fast bowlers that the game has ever seen. His strike rate has recently risen to 40.3 because he has not been at his destructive best. That places him fourth on the all-time list, ahead of greats like McGrath, Lillee, and Marshall.
His wickedly late away swing at the top of the innings is guaranteed to test even the best batsmen. The one thing in Australia’s favour is that her current openers are lefthanders, and he is less effective against batsmen of that variety.
Vernon Philander has had a fairytale beginning to his Test career. Indeed, only one bowler has taken to 50 wickets in fewer Test matches. Of all the fast bowlers I have seen – and I have seen McGrath and Ambrose – I would say that he bowls the most consistent line.
In a five or six over spell at the Basin Reserve, I counted only four deliveries that the batsmen did not attempt to play. He will be a handful.
As will Morne Morkel. His high pace and steep bounce is bound to cause concern, especially since he has shown signs that he might be returning to good form.
So the Australian batting line-up, which I think has real deficiencies, will not have an easy time of it this coming summer.
Both openers are vulnerable.
Apart from the pull shot Cowan is often strokeless, while Warner, despite his two hundreds, just does not seem to posses the technique of a good Test match opener.
Ponting at four has been a champion player for Australia over many years, but on the evidence of his play in the West Indies and against New Zealand and South Africa recently, he appears to be well past his best.
My guess is that Australia’s batting might come to rely too heavily on Clarke and Hussey, the latter of whom should bat at five rather than six. If the current line-up is the one that will play this summer then South Africa will fancy their chances of wiping away the top order fairly quickly, so the pressure on the middle and lower order will be tremendous.
In the West Indies they got quite a few runs from the lower order, but they cannot rely on that happening against a far superior bowling unit.
Last November the same sides shared a two-Test series in South Africa. Australia won the second test by two wickets mainly due to some good fast bowling from Patrick Cummins, who hasn’t played since due to injury.
Vital to that victory also, was a 174-run opening partnership out of an eventual score of 296 in the first innings, compiled by Shane Watson and Phillip Hughes. There was also a 122-run third-wicket partnership between Usman Khawaja and Ponting in the second innings.
If Australia is to do well in November, they will need similarly good service from the first four men in the order.
Disco
Roar Guru
Based on his stint at Tasmania, I used to think Watson had the game to bat very successfully in the Test top order, but he seemingly doesn't. He should bat at six, so long as he's fit to bowl. I'm not convinced by Cowan but think he's done just enough to be given a bit more og a go. I'd have Khawaja somewhere in the side and if he's been persevered with and backed earlier he might be a successful Test No.3 by now. Otherwise maybe Hussey or Clarke could bat at 3. Clarke struggled at No.4 but has since done very well at 5, so perhaps he could take more responsibility. Perhaps the A tour will throw up other possible alternatives.
Disco
Roar Guru
Quite so. Khawaja's younger and has achieved more at his current age than the older, preferred options.
AndyMack
Guest
Love Khawaja, thought he should have played the 1st Ashes test in Brisbane. Was overlooked when in great form (for M North!!) and then never given a chance really. Still think he is the long term solution and should be in the side. Why "develop" Cowen (and possibly Bailey) when they are not long term option???
Pope Paul VII
Guest
No worries, the ROARers leave cricinfo in the shade. You are quite right, Huss will certainly give it his all. Like you I think he's too low but the Holy Trinity, as one of my friends calls them, seem to be welded into 4,5, and 6. I'm sure Usi will be back and things will get worse before they get better but it's all part of the fun.
Garfield Robinson
Guest
Thanks for taking the time to comment pope. For some reason I see Hussey as still being able to perform in tests. He still looked like he had it to me in the Caribbean so thats why I even suggested that he bats at 5. But looking back on his recent figures I see that they have not been all that impressive. Still I think he looks able to carry on a bit. I liked the looks of Khawaja the few times I saw him, but it seems Australia, unusually, is suffering from a dearth of good batting talent. Their pace bowling seems ok for the near future but the batting will cause them a hard time in the near future.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
A good question Sir Garfield. Historically, genuinely fast bowling packs will prevail regardless of the opposition, especially aged ones. Most recently England stitched up Australia in 2005, 2009, and 2010/11 on the back of their pace attack. Like England, SA have a good spinner and a couple of spare quickies so there is no let up. Best group of fast men since the West Indians long reign I reckon, not withstanding the individual mastery of the brilliant Glenny McGrath. If it weren't for SA's own indifferent batting they would be raging favourites. If they learnt anything from Australia's epic win in SA, they probably are raging favourites. Australia's own speedsters are more than handy which is a big counterpoint. The top three will be under the gun but I think the lower middle order is more vulnerable. Huss and Ponting are not getting any younger and have struggled against genuine pace and swing recently. Huss was in a hole too until the Indians arrive. Clarkey too has been dodgy against quickies. If they manage to win then it will be a truly great achievement. If they don't then it's the old guard that have to give way because if they can't get past SA they won't beat England either. Even replacing Ponting and Hussey probably won't change the result but it's an opportunity to build for the future. Hughes and Khawaja got scant credit or reward for their contribution to a great victory over SA and deserve a clear run at establishing themselves. Hughes was indeed edging everything that moved but he's got cred against SA I still think he's worth coming back to. Khawaja has just been treated abysmally. So have the NZeders who won a great test on a sporting wicket. As it stands, with this top six Australia will lose handsomely.
Garfield Robinson
Guest
Disco, what do you think of Watson at 3? And do you think there are replacements who can occupy the top order should replacements be required say after the SA series?
Disco
Guest
If South Africa bowl accurately, I think Australia will struggle and generally be depending on Clarke, Hussey and the lower-order to scrape together scores of around 250-280. Against good attacks, that's been the pattern over the last few years with a top-order collapse being the norm rather than the exception.
Garfield Robinson
Guest
I guess Ponting could still come good though I doubt that he can still shine against the best bowling. Do you think Andy that the selectors could take a look again at someone like Khawaja?
Lolly
Guest
I think the big question mark around Morne still is his ability to keep his head, but he's a much improved bowler and his control is usually pretty good now.. It will be a fascinating series.
AndyMack
Guest
Hi Garfield Have to think on the face of it the Aussie top order will struggle. Steyn is world class and will trouble anyone. Morkel struggled in Oz last time around (9 wickets at 42) despite the hype around him, and Philander has started like a house on fire, but has played his tests on pretty bowler friendly wickets in SA and NZ. So I'm holding onto a little hope that our top order wont be blown away. But then I'm still in the "Ricky will come good" camp.