There is something unique about this season, and no, I’m not talking about the fact that the AFL has 18 teams in it for the first time in its 115-year history.
I believe we are witnessing the most open premiership race in years.
Yes, it’s true that we have two new teams who are likely occupy the bottom two rungs, unless the Demons beat them to it first, and Brisbane and Port aren’t faring much better.
But there’s a lot to like about what’s happening among the next 13 teams, and when you sit down and think about it, 13 teams are a lot of teams.
First thing’s first, let’s have some context. How do we determine how open this season is?
Let us start with the pre-season predictions that invariably had three teams raffling the premiership amongst themselves: Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn.
It has long been said that at the end of round seven, you get a pretty good gauge of how the top eight will end up by season’s end.
As it happens, at the end of round seven, we have Collingwood sitting in the seventh spot and both of Geelong and Hawthorn sitting outside of the top eight.
Next, it was only a couple of weeks ago when West Coast, Carlton and Sydney were being hailed as the next contenders, and all three have suffered big defeats in the past two weeks.
What’s more, some of those defeats have been against teams who, at the start of the season, were universally declared as belonging in a tier below the flag favourites, who themselves are now knocking on the door of flag favouritism themselves.
Enter Essendon and Adelaide, now sitting equal top with the Eagles on six wins and a loss.
Now we may have witnessed such things in other seasons, of course, but this is the thing – we have not been witnessing this sort of unpredictability over the last four seasons.
In the last four seasons, we have witnessed the top two and three teams go on big undefeated runs, only losing games when they met each other, but sweeping all else before them.
There are early signs that that will not be the case this season, that top clubs might be expecting tough battles all the way down to 13th position on the ladder, and that teams on the edge of the eight are every chance of knocking off teams in the top four.
Let me give you another benchmark. Exactly 20 seasons ago, the top three sides ended the season with 16 wins apiece, or 48 wins in total.
For much of the 20 seasons since, the top three teams have had total wins slightly below that, occasionally slightly above that, until we reach 2008, and then that figure jumps to 53 wins, and stays there the following season.
This is an interesting indicator, because the more concentrated the wins in the top three, the more predictable the season is and the narrower the range of contenders for the flag.
In 2011, the top three’s wins jumped to an all-time high of 57, as follows; Collingwood with 20 wins, Geelong (19 wins) and Hawthorn (18 wins).
Incredibly, West Coast rounded off the top four with 17 wins, which is indicative of the domination of those teams over the rest of the competition.
Contrasted against that we have the 1993 season, which comprised only 20 rounds that year. The top 3 sides have 39 wins in total, a very low number, so low, that Footscray in ninth spot was only two wins behind, indicating perhaps the most open season of the modern era.
With Hawthorn and Geelong currently sitting outside the top eight, and below them North, Richmond and the Bulldogs showing already that they can mix it with teams above them, I have a feeling that this season will be the most open and even since that 1993 season.
And who knows – an Essendon vs Carlton grand final wouldn’t surprise me either.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Just watching On the Couch. Their big story? The AFL Ladder! 1. WCE 8 1 2. Dons 8 1 3. Crows 7 2 4. Pies 7 2 5. Swans 6 3 6. Blues 6 3 7. Sts 5 4 8. Hawks 5 4 9. Cats 5 4 10. Freo 5 4 11. Nth 4 5 12. tiges 4 5 13. dogs 4 5 I'd love to know the last time we had a spread of teams like that in Rd 9, all the way down to 13th?
micka
Guest
Don't listen to these guys Republican, I'm very interested in your virulently anti Kiwi stance... Do you have some kind of xeroxed pamphlet? Will you be organising any meetings at "the docks"? Have you perfected that method of affixing razor blades to sheep?
The Cattery
Roar Guru
This is the Denver news interviewing Nolan Ellis on his selection to the World XVIII: http://www.worldfootynews.com/article.php/20120522080032386
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Foxtel Cup Quarter final on right now between NT and Port Melbourne.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Cadbury's AFL9s competition will be officially launched tonigh at at half time at the MCG: http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/135260/default.aspx Looks and sounds like a terrific concept, even an old bloke like me with bung legs could give this a go.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
The South Pacific side to play in the NAB U16 Championships has been announced. 13 players are from NZ, 11 from PNG, 2 each from Tonga and Vanuatu, and 1 each from Nauru and Fiji. There is also one from Samoa included as an emergency.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
HK Jack It's definitely a factor - but one we're constantly forgetting about! I can remember years when the dogs looked like they were on fire for the first third of the season, and then as the season wore on, they'd slip, and slip, and then by finals time, well, we all know the story by now. No doubt - it's a factor! But it also underscores that even if the three teams you mention make a late run (odds on), they will be beating teams above them, overtaking them, maybe, and you are going to have the mother of all log jams from 1 to 9th!
The Cattery
Roar Guru
The Cattery
Roar Guru
I agree with all that. 1. it's about personal development, preparing teenagers for a hard road as a professional footballer, physically and mentally; and 2. the more we do it, the higher the odds that players will be unearthed amongst the opposition - why not?
TW
Guest
Cattery, Have just found this article by Kevin Sheehan from April 24. KS is defending the AFL/AIS program and its overseas tours - International Scholarships - The Aussie Rules Leagues overseas and so on. He is replying to an article in The Age by Greg Baum who apparently criticised the AFL`` overseas activities and the Academy. I think everyone is missing the point - Searching for more talent is behind it all. 18 Clubs have to be supplied now so as to speak. http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/134023/default.aspx
HK Jack
Guest
Cattery, why does no-one seem to mention the effect that the wet weather in Jul/Aug will have on the teams aiming for September action? Apart from the Perth based teams and to a lesser extent the Etihad Stadium based teams, l would have thought that Cats/Hawks/Pies will have a real advantage during the second half of the season when the grounds are wetter and those bigger bodied teams have a big advantage. Blues and Bombers look great at the mom but think their midfielders will not quite be as quick and effective in the wet. Or maybe l am just dreaming!
BigAl
Guest
My my Red, I can't recall you ever being so reticent about the Bombers chances - when it has looked like they are really flying ? Do you know something that we don't ?i
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Just to correct you: it's called the International Cup, and it is open to all nations who play the game at an amateur level. What I am talking about above is something different again. It is fantastic news. We are talking about the second generation of Americans to play the game at club, state and international level - so it's a significant milestone. Of course this has already happened in places like PNG and Nauru, but it's very exciting to have it happen in a place like the US - the next tier of nations who play our national game, if you like. It's truly very exciting news. In fact, I would put it right up there as the biggest sporting news for the week.
ItsCalled AussieRules
Roar Rookie
Great news. Looking forward to the next AFL World Cup TC.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
The USAFL site is running a story today about two American boys who have made the World XVIII and they are terrific stories. http://www.usafl.com/node/26559 Nolan Ellis represents a 2nd generation aussie rules footballer in the US, his father and uncle both played for the Denver Bulldogs and the US Revolution, and Nolan has played the game since he was 3 years old. Now aged 16, he made his senior debut with the bulldogs in the past year. Quote: Proud father Tom shared Nolan’s reaction to being selected, “He is excited to meet all the other players and just absorb all he can while he is there. He just wants to represent the USA, USAFL and the Denver Bulldogs well both on and off the field. The outpour from family, friends and teammates has been awesome. He just can't wait to get there! “ Brandon Heicklen of LA has a slightly different story. At age 11, Brandon was flipping television channels at his grandmother’s house when he came across a footy game on ESPN. Like most Americans, he thought it was Rugby – and was just about to turn it off when one of the players punted a 55 meter goal. He yelled out, “Dad, you’ve got to see this!” They watched the rest of the game together. The next day, Brandon researched local leagues and discovered that the SCAFL (Southern California AFL) Beachside Sharks played close to his home. The team, comprised of adults ages 19-40, adopted him as the team mascot and developed him for two years before letting him play in a game. In 2011, at age 13, he became the team’s back-up full-forward. Brandon says: “I’m ecstatic to be playing for the World Team. First, to work with some of the best coaches in Australia for 14 days straight - that's just really exciting, and second, I can’t wait to see where I stand in comparison to other kids my own age. I, like every other player at the U-16 Nationals, dream of some day getting drafted by the Australian Football League. This is my chance to see, first hand, how I stack up. I can't wait. I would like to thank the Los Angeles Sharks and the AFL for believing in me. I promise, I’ll do my best not to let you guys down!” Two absolutely sensational stories!! Dear friends - this is what it's all about!!
The Cattery
Roar Guru
The NAB U16 Championships start on July 7 this year. The South Pacific and World XVIII will field teams for the third time, but this time, they will all be at the same age, which represents good progress. Div. 1 Vic Metro Vic Country WA SA Div. 2 Qld Tas NSW/ACT NT Div. 3 Flying Boomerangs WA North-West World XVIII South Pacific
Jaceman
Guest
Just to prove Republican is correct and its all about TV, its a shame the TV rights discussions arent being held this year with an even comp and high ratings..
Jaceman
Guest
Republican Sheesh do you believe in anything or are you a permanent naysayer...
The Cattery
Roar Guru
This is the thing - kids enjoy kicking a footy around - let's encourage them to do it, even if it's only for a few weeks at a time - some will stick with it - the vast majority will move on to something else or return to their favourite sport (or do them concurrently) - it's not a big deal either way - it's an absolute drop in the ocean at the end of the day. No reason to get over optimistic, but no reason to put it down either.
TW
Guest
Republican, I have been following international footy since about 2000 when I discoverd that footy had been established in the USA. This discovery came about when I was reading the Football Record at a Eagles match in Perth. I thought what a great idea for our game - To go international and spread the enjoyment around of our sport. Then reality set in when it became apparent at that time that the AFL was only offering token financial and moral support for the concept. The International Rules project was uppermost in their minds and still is to a reduced degree. After doing some research I discovered the game had been in NZ and South Africa in the early 1900`s and had several opportunities to get established internationally elsewhere but were not taken up for various reasons. To get to the current situation - The AFL had been dragged kicking and screaming into their International funding expenditure because expats and others have been doing the growing overseas and needed support. Then in a change of direction they (AFL) in circa 2008 decided that the AFL Clubs can drive the game overseas by offering scholarships to promising international players. So we have had a flurry of expansion into various international areas deemed to have potential for same said players which of course includes NZ. To me personally NZ is just another market they are concentrating on and is no big deal as a new market. The point is NZ kids like the game when they get exposed to it just like kids in South Africa - PNG - Canada - Denmark etc etc. I will be honest here about 5/6 years ago NZ parents did not want to know about the game when Kiwikick was tried the first time. However different approaches and co-operation from local sports groups since have obviously done the trick because a target of 500 Kiwikick Coaches (Mainly parents it seems) is planned for 2012.