The NRL’s controversial Contribution Value Rating (CVR) system was thrown into the spotlight again this week, with the Newcastle Herald revealing that incoming Knights back-rower Beau Scott is outshone in every aspect of his game by incumbent Knights back-rower Zeb Taia, the man Scott is set to replace.
The CVR system is the brain child of NRL statistician Andrew Moufarrige and current New South Wales Blues video analyst Will Badel.
The CVR system takes into account over 50 different aspects of the game, broadening the statistical horizon which traditionally only measured tackles, line breaks and metres gained.
Thanks to the CVR system players are now held accountable for ineffective tackles, causing line breaks and their efforts over every minute they are on-field, with the CVR system producing a per minute score.
Since the CVR systems creation, at the request of then-Manly Coach Des Hasler, it has been regarded as the tool that turned the Sea Eagles from eighth place table dwellers in 2010 to a premiership winning side in 2011.
Blues coach Ricky Stuart is also said to be a firm believer in the CVR system, while Super Coach Wayne Bennett is yet to weigh in on the statistics versus gut feeling debate.
What the CVR system doesn’t take into account is player attitude, pairing with other players, off-field behaviour and relationships with coaching staff and teammates. While many would argue that on-field performances should be the number one contributing factor when it comes to team naming day, in professional sport that is not always the case.
This month alone has seen Michael Jennings demoted to New South Wales Cup after an ANZAC Day drinking incident, young Bronco’s gun Dane Gagai released by the club for an unspecified string of off-field incidents and NRL’s most infamous off-field offender Todd Carney thrive under the tutelage of Shane Flanagan, named in the New South Wales Blues team for the State of Origin opener.
A lot goes on behind the scenes that can see a player fall out of favour with those who select the team. I have heard of a player not being selected for a team due to his inability to clean up after himself in the team kitchen and changing sheds.
The coach’s philosophy was if the player caused more work for his teammates off the field, he would probably do the same on-field and needed to learn to be a team player.
The decision to omit players from the team due to off-field incidents is a contentious issue among league followers. While the CVR system and similar statistics gives a great picture of a player’s skills and game, it doesn’t paint the whole picture in terms of who the player is, and how easily he gets along with those who hold his future in their hands.
Until a system is developed that takes these factors into consideration, gut-feeling and the player’s ability to maintain positive relationships with their colleagues will always play into team selection.
mushi
Guest
I think the key second line to “stats don’t lie” should be “but we rarely ask them the right questions”.
Noel
Guest
Statistics are something that should be taken into account , but tempered with attitudes and influence in the way players create opportunities for the team to put itself in a better position to score points , or perhaps prevent points being scored . Few would not agree that Wally Lewis was a player of worth to a team , even the ultimate example . However Wally spent a lot of his time on the field being a rover watching and analysing the opposition looking for a chink in their armour , placing players in advantageous positions to perhaps put the team in a better position to have the upper hand . Wally also was not the most earnest trainer , and maybe not the fittest player on the paddock , but who would deny him a place on the team . Statistics have a place but they are not the only way of assessing players , and certainly not the only criteria needed to create a successful team . A team needs players to be in harmony with one another , who want to put in the extra effort to help out a mate who is struggling to get it right on the day , who puts success in uppermost in his or her aims and even in front of personal care , who leaves his problems on the sideline . Players like Paul Gallon like Billy Slater Like Wally Lewis like Nathan Hindmarsh and so many more that to mention all of them would take up too much time and paper . Wayne Bennett places personal attitude and aptitude very highly in his assessment of a player , and probably along with playing statistics .
Danelle Mouat
Roar Rookie
Thanks Mantis. It seems to be quite difficult to find an easily accessible list of CVR ratings, I am unsure if it may be something that is privy only to those who have a relationship with Sportsdata? In the below article by Brad Walter it shows Paul Gallen is leading the charge with the highest CVR. This is backed up by Robert Dillon in his article about Taia/Scott. Walters also outlines some of the other players leading the charge for highest CVR's. If anyone does have any further info on how to access the full NRL CVR's it would be interesting to hear! Brad Walter's article in the SMH: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/gallen-marooned-a-look-at-the-top-performers-will-give-nsw-the-blues-20120511-1yi38.html Robert Dillon's article in the Newcastle Herald: http://www.theherald.com.au/news/local/sport/rugby-league/numbering-up-unwanted-taia-outranks-scott-on-player-rating-system/2557350.aspx?storypage=2
Pot Stirrer
Guest
I wonder if they are carreer stats or just this season? Lockyer never seemed to score well in fantasy leagues but would have been just about everyones first choice if he was on the open market.
David Heidelberg
Guest
Nice to hear Zeb Taia is rated so highly, much better player than most realise.
itsuckstobeyou
Roar Pro
Moneyball anyone? I tend not to argue with results. If Hasler has endorsed it, then won a premiership, you can't ignore that fact. All stats need to be put in perspective. You can't even look at a guys missed tackles, for instance, without looking at his completed tackles. If he's making 40+ tackles a game he's bound to miss a few. If a player is hiding on the wing or behing the line in defense he is bound to miss fewer tackles. I'm certain the data is being used with an adequate amount of common sense. In this instance, it is the Newcastle Herald who are giving the stats too much credence.
Mantis
Roar Guru
Interesting article Danelle. One question which you may or may not have the answer to; Which players are rated best under the system?
turbodewd
Guest
Id like to see whats in this CVR and who the top 10 players are. and Jarryd Hayne's too.
mushi
Guest
I’ve got some issues with this measure a big one being that if it relies on the basic stats we have at hand it is clunky at best. Not saying useless, but should be given a large pile of salt. The current crop of stats has been built on giving us the widest range of easily collectable data, but it doesn’t give any consideration to how this data reflects the game. Take tackles and effective tackle percentage. There is very little correlation between effective tackle percentage and any defensive measure. My gut feel is because of how the measures are recorded. If you initiate contact with a big hit and stop a guy dead in his tracks but someone else has to make the tackle then you had an ineffective tackle despite being the primary reason the player was stopped and actually giving your team more time to reset the defensive line. Similar to missing tackles within the ruck area where someone is getting gang tackled anyway and is still brought to ground due to you slowing them down. These get represented in the same way as being shrugged off and scored on. Also all the value is placed on the guy accredited with the tackle and not the other players who assist in the tackle expending energy and slowing the play of the ball. As a stat it has limited application for judging the effectiveness of a player particularly a forward who makes tackles around the ruck area. Then you get into the problem of different players have different base line statistical expectations given their position on the field and should be judged as such. Personally if I were running a team I’d do this in house rather than the one size fits all sports data solution. My first thought would be judging work rate by tackle percentage involvement when on the field. For effectiveness I’d do a change in expected outcome it would be time consuming but essentially takes years of data and map from that area of the field on that tackle what was the end result of that set of six and then map the change after the next tackle and apply that to each of the players. I’d even go a tackle further as well to see if any trends develop (from quick play of the balls etc). You could then also look at how different systems use different types of players etc for further tailoring.