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It’s that time of the year again: international selection time. As such, it’s also time for conjecture, opinion, analysis and bias.
I have chipkicked the first international of the season against Scotland on the grounds that two-thirds of the squad are not available.
Here is my backline, with a three-man bench, for the Welsh series.
My selection strategy starts with the best goal kicker. In filling in the rest of my squad I’ve made liberal use of existing combinations, looked for a balance of flair and “muscle”, selected players who are in form and who desperately want the jersey and picked a blend of youth and experience.
Back line
9. Genia
10. Cooper (goal kicker two)
11. Ioane
12. Harris (goal kicker one)
13. Horne
14. Monahan
15: McCabe
20: Phipps
21: Fainga’a
22: Foley
Halfback: Genia
Genia is miles ahead of every other candidate, now that he has come back into form. His running game has re-emerged and his service continues to be excellent.
He is tough on his forwards and gets their attention and respect when he needs it.
There are a healthy number of genuine options at flyhalf.
Cooper, Beale, Barnes and O’Connor have all performed well in the number 10 jersey in the recent past. Barnes and O’Connor shade Cooper and Beale as goal kickers.
Cooper’s selection presumes that his injury is healing well and that his confidence is growing. Clearly, he is not back to his “jumping-bean” best in attack.
Even on one-and-a-half legs, he throws the best pass of the four candidates. He is also the best at deciding how to ignite this potent backline.
Harris is my choice for inside centre. This is the most difficult and contentious selection decision.
The candidates for the number 12 include the hard running and hard tackling McCabe, Fainga’a and even Rob Horne or Adam Ashley-Cooper.
Barnes is an excellent tackler and tries very hard, but he is both out of form and doesn’t read the game well enough. Why didn’t the Waratahs continue to attack the Bulls back-line defence after they split them wide open for a try to Horne early in the recent game?
Worse still, Barnes visibly lost composure in the Brumbies, Bulls and Cheetahs games. Huffing and puffing has no place in professional rugby.
I am a confirmed Pat McCabe fan. He is a fully committed and consistent rugby player.
He is both very physical and intelligent, possessing enough speed to also play wing. He is becoming the current day Stirling Mortlock.
McCabe could play at number 12 but he is better on the bench as cover for 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15. I see him as an integral part of this team and getting 25 minutes game time.
Harris is a Test-standard player, if given the chance. Most importantly, he has a proven, high functioning combination with Genia and Cooper.
With the short preparation time, existing proven combinations are essential from the first whistle.
Rather than a compromise, it is an opportunity. Harris is a typical New Zealand-raised player. He does everything well without being spectacular.
He has been through some adversity on his rugby journey and will value the opportunity. He needs to balance his play, so as to avoid the “too many cooks” syndrome of Cooper, Beale, O’Connor and Genia. Someone has to eat the broth.
Horne gets selected at outside centre. The other candidates included Ioane, Fainga’a or Ashley Cooper.
Ashley-Cooper has been a fabulous player for Australia and he can be again. He needs a wake-up call.
Hopefully, by being dropped and spending some time running around for Northern Suburbs in the Shute Shield’s lower tier he will rediscover his mojo and play his way back into the team.
Fainga’a is still on the way back from injury and not yet back to his previous form or work rate of last season.
Horne has put together three strong performances in the past three weeks. He is free from injury and will benefit from being in a cohesive, confident back-line unit.
However, the Welsh series is his last chance to make the number 13 jersey his own. Otherwise, Ioane will move to 13 and a newbie will come onto the wing in the rugby championship.
Ioane, McCabe take the wings. The other candidates include Shipperley, Tomane, Kingston, Mitchell and Vuna. Because O’Connor is injured, McCabe comes off the bench onto the wing.
Monahan is my full back. The other candidates include Foley, Mogg, Barnes and Adam Ashley-Cooper.
Beale is the standout. He is a true fullback and the one player who maximises the space that is on offer at number 15.
Foley and Mogg, in that order, need some game time off the bench as soon as possible.
Had Beale and O’Connor been fit, they would have been 15 and 14 respectively, with McCabe and Monahan bumping Fainga’a and Foley out.
While Ashley-Cooper could play 15 in Beale’s absence, I am showing him some tough love by leaving him out.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.