Europe’s finest will pack all manner of feelings, alongside the passports and good behaviour guides, as they depart for a three-pronged assault on the southern hemisphere.
There will be excitement, trepidation and perhaps a touch of less-than-sincere gratitude to their administrators for arranging the a three-Test series at the end of a gruelling schedule that reads World Cup, domestic grind through winter, Six Nations, domestic finals and outbound tour.
Emanating from each camp will be the usual reassurances that they are getting on that plane to win every Test, but I suspect a truer state of affairs can be summed up like this: expectation (Wales), hope (Ireland) and wishful thinking (England).
Predictions about this Wallabies v Wales series are based on shifting sands, which seem to be moving almost daily based on a flurry of medical updates: first Kurtley Beale is on the surgeon’s slab and then suddenly in contention again; Ben Lucas is initially excluded but now has proved his fitness; and Warren Gatland might make it out of his wheelchair for the second Test.
The Wallabies’ news might be enough to send fans with a nervous disposition scurrying towards the drinks cabinet. The unpleasant footage of James Horwill’s injury immediately made you wonder about its severity and those fears appear to be justified. There is no obvious replacement for the big man and Nathan Sharpe’s pace around the park is befitting of a man now in the final stages of a long race.
The reason why Horwill will be missed so much is because – despite a bewildering array of names being proposed this week – the Wallabies are, in reality, fairly settled in terms of selection. There is a core of about a dozen players who, injury permitting, will play most games and the captain is clearly at that top table. Additionally, while there might be up to four options of comparable quality to cover No.6/No.8, the shelf directly below Horwill is emptier.
It is just speculation but his demise adds to the feeling that any potential physical advantage enjoyed by Australia, due to the length of the Welsh players’ season and their long trek from home, might be dwindling.
The Welsh, moreover, have developed a reputation for being one of the most meticulously prepared teams in the world. It does not always tally with a previous reputation of relishing the game’s more social aspects, but sports science has become one of their weapons.
Their whip-cracker is a former AIS man, Adam Beard, and their cryotherapy sessions have entered folklore. Crucially, their players believe they are the fittest in the world. They believe they can go into the last 20 minutes with enough in the tank to close out the tight games. And belief is half the battle for sides heading to the southern hemisphere.
The Irish mood as they head to New Zealand is much less sanguine.
Leinster might have won a third consecutive Heineken Cup but all that has done is cast a light on the contradiction between sustained provincial success and Test mediocrity. Coach Declan Kidney is a man under pressure, with questions being asked about how the Kiwi coaching set-up at Leinster can get the best out of Johnny Sexton and company while they struggle to reproduce that in green shirts.
And despite the strong links between the countries, the Irish don’t give much attention to chatter about the departure of Jerome Kaino and the form of Ali Williams. The presumption is that the 22 men the All Blacks put out will be ready to play come Test time. Besides, the Irish win column remains naked in contests between the two. Expectations are being played down, especially as Stephen Ferris has been lost to injury and Paul O’Connell is a major doubt. But that might not be a bad thing this time around.
England, however, are in a different position.
Perhaps emboldened by an entertaining final (take note, Brumbies and Reds) to wrap up their domestic season and a run in the sun against the Barbarians, commentators such as Will Greenwood have been wondering aloud if England could do something in South Africa.
Green shoots of recovery under new coach Stuart Lancaster have been detected after a comical World Cup campaign.
I am not so sure. The English were coming off a very low base post-New Zealand and although they destroyed Ireland in the final Six Nations game, Andy Farrell’s subsequent rejection of the back-line coaching job has muddied the waters. Wayne Smith also declined the opportunity so Mike Catt is now in charge of attack. From the outside the coaching set-up looks a little green.
They have also lost blindside breakaway Tom Croft, who flourished on the hard South African grounds during the Lions tour of 2009, and are sweating on the availability of Manu Tuilagi, probably their only back who can consistently challenge the gainline.
Conversely, expect the South Africans to have a lot of clarity about their work, even though they are under a new coach. With preparation time limited they will keep it simple. And while Northern Hemisphere journalists still make a sport of taunting Super Rugby about a lack of tackling, the South Africans have enough heavy ball carriers to pummel England into submission and resist any counter punches.
England will do well to avoid a whitewash in the Republic.
Indeed, of the nine Tests played in the three series, it is difficult to find more than a combined total of two, perhaps three, wins for the touring sides.
I think Australia have enough to win their series, but it’s a belief founded on those uncertain and shifting sands mentioned earlier.
reds fan
Guest
TBA now = Big Momma with Eddie Murphy. So I guess that's no....
Coxinator
Guest
Having lived and worked with many Scottish sports teams and players, rugby had some real issues in terms of player numbers when I left in 2007. National league clubs had on average just two senior teams each (including colts!), having had 6-7 sides each in the 90s. The SRU and it's staff seemed to be entirely made up of the old elite schools brigade. Add to that that that it was £20 to go see a Edinburgh match with less than 5000 in attendance (at a 67000 capacity stadium) and you could easily see how the fall was happening. I remember at that time a news report showed Scotland cricket had even more juniors than rugby so I hope this new schools plan is a success.
Coxinator
Guest
Plantaris tendon? I don't think he had any calf symptoms or swelling. Perhaps you mean gracilis or semtendinosis?
Kevinmeath
Guest
Rugby is played in most (if not all) schools in Wales, the Welsh team is young-- the oldest back is Philips (30) and the youngest is a teenager and the rest are in their early to mid-20's, the Captain is 22 and is the oldest of the backrow. One of the comments about this season has been that where before Wales really struggled beyond their match day 22 (15 even) now they are developing some strength in depth (although not at tighthead where they have 1!). I don't think that can be said for Scotland who have a much smaller pool of players. Rugby is not played in all Irish schools (private boys schools yes) GAA is but the clubs and some schools (St Pats in Navan is a prime example) are trying to 'spread the word'. However first came to Ireland in the mid-90's and you would hardly see a rugby ball or jersey now 2012 you will see Munster and Leinster jerseys everywhere and on greens its not unusual to see lads playing a quick game of rugby. At my school the Nuns even come up to me to discuss 'the game' on saturday not soccer or GAA but the Leinster-Ospreys game. Thinks to Munster/Leinster winning I would say rugby in Ireland is in very good health. Now a question would be with Leinster and Munster dominating the European cup why hasn't the international side dominated Europe?
Ivan
Guest
Bekker is injured. Fourie du Preez and frans steyn will start.
Kevinmeath
Guest
Isn't there a 'European' cup each year? its just called the six nations.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Cheers.
Spencer
Guest
Chilliboy is the new Bok captain.
Rory
Guest
England have beaten aus the last two times they have played, home and away but why let the truth get in the way? I'm sure the NH teams (which incidentally includes Scotland!) are enjoying being written off. The arrogance displayed in some of these comments and parts of the article are breathtaking. Clearly the author didn't watch much of the 6 nations. England and Wales showed some real quality as did Ireland early in the tournament albeit to a lesser extent. SA had a poor RWC and NZ looked to have peaked by the final. Yes there is a gap but it's far narrower than most seem to think. Wales will push us close England will take at least one test against the boks. I don't know enough about the Irish team to predict but NZ is the toughest place to tour...
Johnno
Guest
I have a plan for a global rugby calendar. basically runs from March-November each year like global rugby league. Scrap the 6 nations, and every 4 years this is the timetable -British Lions tour/ and NH or SH tour -European championship -Rest year -Rugby union world cup MID OCT-END OF NOVEMBER And if the world cup is held in SH you just play the matches at night, and they have played matches world cups, rugby league tri nations in oct-november for years anyway.
allblackfan
Guest
KPM, the top Argentinian players are already running into problems renewing contracts with their European clubs, who realise that the RC will deprivve them of these players for some time! Hopefully, this may discourage them from picking up current inform SH reps and go for those blokes whose test careers are over. In any case, expect Argentina to field a full-strength RC squad. Given how much passion drives the Pumas, expect nothing less!
Ben Carter
Roar Guru
Hi Paul - just a 'daft question' moment... Has anyone ever considered, particularly given the amount of interest generated on the continent, as to why the IRB has never held a Euro Cup along FIFA/UEFA lines, in the every-second-off-year from the IRB World Cup? Just a thought..... Cut the thing to half the World Cup sides (a la the UEFA event), split the Six Nations teams plus the European Nations Cup (the second-tier comp) into two groups of five, then semis and a final. Host it in Italy for starters, perhaps? How about this (based on IRB rankings) in 2013? GROUP A: Italy (as hypothetical hosts), Wales, Ireland, Georgia, Spain GROUP B: England, France, Scotland, Romania, Russia Why not?...
allblackfan
Guest
haskell will be part of the team so expect the record to fall!!
Ben S
Roar Guru
You really know your England players, Hugo. How can you expect South Africa to win when they can't even beat Scotland? Did you see what I did there?
Ben S
Roar Guru
Not one of those players can inject himself into the game like Ashton can. They're pure speedsters with bad core skills. Alberts is a big ball carrier, and Etzebeh is useful down the middle, but Deysel, Stander, Oosthuizen and Greyling are unlikely to be near the Test side. Last season when the Boks started playing hard down the middle it was Smit and Burger taking on the hard yards again and again. Bismarck du Plessis is a fantastic athlete, but he tends to take on the ball too much and ignores support. I see Coetzee more of a worker than a carrier like Alberts. I could basically say the same thing with regard to Marler, Palmer, Haskell, Morgan, Waldrom, but I doubt the author has heard of them.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Good gag, but it didn't actually happen. Just saying...
Ben S
Roar Guru
I have seen the training squad, Steve, but I only read about Pienaar being included, and not the others. It's your typical SA squad tbh: big athletic men, some kickers, some pace. There's some promising young talent in the back five of the scrum - I'm hoping to see Etzebeh and Coetzee get a run against England, but I think there's a lack of depth in the midfield and back three, with the SA wingers out and out wingers rather than being able to cover 15 too - apart from Aplon. I'd like to see De Jongh get a start because I think his footwork is outstanding. I am a big fan of Frans Steyn, but I'd start JdV at 12 for his Stormers connection with De Jongh. The main issue, IMHO, is what tactics Meyer employs. The last time SA met and Flood and Croft went off injured SA could kick for territory and we couldn't challenge Matfield. I'm not sure Bekker could replicate that dominance in the air, but I think Kruger could, and he has also spent a lot of time playing and training with Dylan Hartley. With Hougaard not being the sort of kicker that Du Preez was I think Morne Steyn will have a lot of responsibility, but equally Hougaard could really create problems around the ruck and get over the gainline, bringing players like Alberts on to the ball. It's going to be an interesting series. Can't wait.
Ben S
Roar Guru
They like their pay cheques and themselves. They certainly don't seem to pay much attention to rugby.
matthew
Guest
Great article, Paul. Beale and Horwills injuries are big blows for the Wallabies, we'll see if Kurtley can recover in time as he is absolutely vital to their cause (probably the greatest natural talent in the game at the moment). I still think Wales wont have the mentality and the belief to pull off a series or even a solitary win but their's no doubt they have some potential. The England series will be the next most interesting. They seem to have some belief now and are playing well as a team- the first test will be their best chance but I'm still bullish for the Boks and expect a relatively comfortable series win. The Irish are absolutely not going to get close to the AB's despite definite vulnerabilities in the team notably its new coaching and an exodus of test physicality.
Matthew Skellett
Guest
It will be interesting to see how England fare in the Republic -a dark horse against an old favourite -probably the most even of the june tours i'd say - I also want to mention with a bit of joy that the expansion of the Pacific Nations Cup with the USA and Canada included with Tonga, Fiji , Samoa and Japan seems 'set in stone' from 2013 hoorayy !!!!! Onya Mr Melville !!!!!