So the Dauphine is all done and Bradley Wiggins has taken Yellow. Cadel Evans has finished third, taking the Green Jersey.
Now, how does this affect the predictions going into the Tour de France? At the outset it is easy to say that Wiggins is the favourite and based on how he rode and how Sky went overall, I think this is a fair call.
Wiggins can TT, no doubt about that. And he also climbed quite well.
However, I think an important point to note is that the climbs at Dauphine are very short and there are not many of them compared to the Tour. Let’s see how Wiggins goes on the big climbs and also how his legs look in the TTs after some serious time in the saddle up the climbs.
I think he will be very competitive and there is no doubt Sky look very strong.
There is also a question over Wiggins’ ability to be a leader for the Sky team. It is also not clear what Mark Cavendish’s intentions are but if he decides to go after Green then Wiggins team is one, possibly two less. Wiggins comments after Stage 1 of the Dauphine did not strike me as a guy who copes very well with the media scrutiny either
Cadel on the other hand is a proven leader and humble in the face of the media. BMC is a strong team that have good unity. Their agenda is very clear. They nailed it last year and this was also when Cadel had a major mechanical that almost cost him his tour. Cadel was also pretty isolated in certain parts of the climbs last year and responded very strongly.
I also think a lot of the BMC guys used the Dauphine as a way to run into their last training block. They spent a lot of time on the front controlling the bunch and working.
The Green Jersey, the race within the race, also promises to be an absolute cracker. If Cav does go for it, he will have other Teams like Orica-GreenEdge and Rabobank there will a goal to committing a team to taking the Green Jersey. Cav would have not been thrilled to ride the entire Giro and win several stages and not come up with the Green.
Personally I think he will do a week or so at the Tour and then pull out and focus on the Olympics, where he is desperate to take Gold after missing out in Beijing in 2008 and then onto the Worlds. He has plenty of years left to take the Stage win records but Olympics in another four years might be a stretch.
Going to be a great Tour with plenty of big moments.
Until next time, clip in!
Frenky
Guest
The intentions of Rabobank have been clear since the beginning of the season.. Competing for a top 5 spot in the Tour the France with 3 of their best riders. The Giro was for stage victories and new and upcoming talent.. Gesink has won the Tour of California last month, is a former Top 5 finisher. Mollema finished 4th in last years Vuelta.. Both of them are preparing in the Tour de Suisse at the moment.. with mixed results but the climbing stages will be for upcoming weekend... The points for Rabobank are the least of a worry.. It is actually showing their capability, that's what is going to be important for them.. The way Saxo is performing and AG2R / FDJ.. you won't end last with the squad Rabobank has.. Even so, you get accredited for a WT-status by the performance of the last 3 years as well. (new but extremely complicated set-up)..
Bones506
Roar Guru
Frenky, Unclear about Rabobank intentions right now. Their GC riders really failed to fire in the Giro and Renshaw and Bos have really shown some ability in the sprints - important to remember that you need a certain amount of points to remain a top tier pro team that is automatically selected for the Grand Tours so Rabobank will need to take stage wins and chase points. Cavendish has been on the record and said he will finish the tour so Sky's team is down
Frenky
Guest
Rabobank won't contend for the green jersey.. (at least as a primary goal..) Yes, it is more than likely that Renshaw will make it into the squad but with Gesink, Mollema, Kruijswijk, Sanchez and Ten Dam they have a main focus on the GC.. Especially with Gesink and Mollema Surprised that Hesjedal keeps showing up as a main contender.. Yes, he won the Giro with a great display of power and strength.. but you cannot compare this years Giro with the Tour.. The Tour is a race on its own.. Sky is the team to beat at the moment.. however, there are many riders and teams ready to take over the lead.. Saw SBS's ad for the Tour on TV today.. can't wait..
hamleyn
Roar Guru
Nope, in largely the same way Porte won't get to compete. Their time and energy will be largely taken up by riding for Wiggins. I think Rogers' result at the Dauphine was rather exaggerated by the time trials.
liquorbox_
Guest
unless Wiggins crashes in the first stage or before the first mountain stage, Rogers wont get a chance to compete
Laurie
Guest
I thought Cadel was third and Wiggo was first....somethings missing....oh yeah, second..you know that invisible guy Michael something, come on dont cheapen his ride. 'He coulda been a contender' except for his off a few years ago, and that Californian win, and those world time trial wins.
Bones506
Roar Guru
I do think it is a two Horse race between the two - if both can stay upright. Look - plenty can go wrong in a tour. A couple of crashes (and sometimes one) and it is all over. There are always a few riders around the fringes who can challenge - Nibali is one such rider. A good leader shows his true mark when his back is against the wall. Cadel is always humble and Calm. Have a listen to Wiggins after Stage 1 at Dauphine. He cracked it in the post race interview and his comments did not come from a guy who appears to be handling the expectations well. There are a lot of very big name riders in the Sky team and if they do not think their leader is coping or is able to deliver then I suspect there could be some internal conflicts.
tommy
Guest
Bones, can you elaborate on why you think there is a question over Wiggin's leadership abilities? Also do you think this is a 2 horse race between Wiggins & Cadel?
Darryl Kotyk
Roar Pro
Yes, bring on le Tour. We're in for some fantastic racing and I can't wait.