The second match of the 2012 State of Origin series will be played in Sydney tomorrow night. Down one nil in the series after losing the opening game in Melbourne, the New South Wales Blues are staring at the reality of losing seven series in a row.
Meanwhile, all of Queensland will be hoping this champion Maroons side continues its unprecedented winning run.
Who’s going to win? We analyse the four keys to the game.
1. The benches
I don’t think either coach used his bench to its full potential in game one.
Blues coach Ricky Stuart brought Tony Williams on late, and he certainly had the desired impact, breaking tackles a whopping 13 times, despite only playing 23 minutes. Conversely, Trent Merrin received 38 minutes, which was actually a surprise when I looked it up, such was his lack of impact on the game.
Meanwhile, Ben Creagh played just 24 minutes, which seems counter-intuitive when you consider the Dragons’ strengths are his athleticism and fitness.
Then rounding out the Blues bench use was Jamie Buhrer’s inglorious seven minutes of play.
Seeming as the Blues picked a side to counteract Queensland’s size, it was a strange decision by Stuart to underuse his bench. Michael Jennings sin bin may have caused some disruption to the rotation strategy, but fresh players would have better capitalised on Queensland’s one weakness: fatigue late in the game.
And make no mistake; the Maroons were really struggling in the last 15 minutes of the match.
Mal Meninga used his bench better than Stuart, with David Shillington playing 37 minutes and Ben Hannant 31 minutes. However, David Taylor and Matt Gillett were both under-utilised, registering 24 and 17 minutes respectively.
Considering how out on their feet the Maroons were in the last quarter of game I, I expect Meninga to use his bench more astutely in game II, to help prevent tiredness late in the match.
Meanwhile, Stuart needs to have an improved game plan on how to best utilise the minutes available to him.
Who wins the game may well be dictated by which coach uses his bench the best.
2. The referees
In basketball there is a term named a ‘make-up call’, which basically occurs when a referee all but admits they made a mistake, and follows a bad call with an equally bad call. It’s basically an evening out of the poor decisions.
There is a slight danger that the entire game of Origin II becomes a ‘make-up call’, with the referees giving the Blues more 50/50 calls than they are warranted.
It’s not a conspiracy theory, it’s merely human nature. Much was made of the Blues not receiving much luck in game I, yet luck has a way of evening out over the course of a series. The referees won’t consciously favour the Blues, as that would be outright cheating. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if, by sheer coincidence, the Blues get an unfair share of decisions going their way in Sydney.
The Maroons cannot become preoccupied with this, and I’m sure they’re not. But my number one concern heading into Origin II is that Queensland get screwed by the referees, thereby ruining rugby league’s biggest spectacle once again.
3. Execution
The Blues may have had more possession and a higher completion rate in game I, but the Maroons executed much better when presented with scoring opportunities.
On far too many occasions, the Blues squandered their attacking chances. Whether it was kicking down Brent Tate’s throat for easy diffusions, attempting a shot at goal from forty metres out, or forcing the pass late, the Blues struggled to keep their composure in attack.
Meanwhile, in what has become a hallmark of their success, the Maroons capitalised when presented the opportunity to score. Led by the precision, skill and patience of Johnathan Thurtson, Queensland make every attacking raid count.
The real concern for the Blues will be that the Maroons were well below their best in Melbourne. They actually played pretty poorly in patches, and looked very sluggish. There is next to no chance Queensland will play that badly again.
Billy Slater, in particular, would be unlikely to repeat his performance in game I, which should be a major concern for the Blues, since they only looked like scoring because of Slater’s mistakes.
The Blues will require more than luck as a strategy to succeed in game two. They’ll need to execute with Maroon-like efficiency.
4. NSW personnel changes
While it may seem like a fairly small change on the surface, the selection of an additional prop will have a drastic effect on the Blues, and their game plan.
The addition of Tim Grant enables Paul Gallen to move back to lock. However, this will alter very little to Gallen’s game, as regardless of what number he wears on his jersey, he plays exactly the same way, and in the same area on the field – the middle.
Where the changes will be felt is with the NSW backrowers, many who were asked to play as makeshift props in game I, which hindered their effectiveness.
However, with Grant, Tamou, Gallen and Merrin taking responsibility for the middle of the ground, the Blues backrowers will be able to utilise their athleticism and speed on the fringes. Look for Bird, Stewart, Watmough, Lewis and Creagh to play and run wider.
This will ask more tackling of Cronk, Inglis, Hodges, and especially Thurston, who will be missing his bodyguard, Sam Thaiday. While all of those players are certainly up to the task defensively, the added work may affect their attacking potency.
Prediction
Despite an improved Queensland performance, I think the home ground advantage, and better use of their bench, will see the Blues win an absolute Origin classic, thus squaring up the series.
NSW Blues: 21
Queensland Maroons: 18
Meesta Cool
Guest
Wow how wrong was I... thuggery from both sides was not stopped, NSW had a stacked deck -- good call!. I apologise to Fonzie and Ricky your 'bring in the thugs theory' really worked.!.
Meesta Cool
Guest
OOops Fonzie.. we use technology at all games that detects everything.. gone are the days of a stray swinging arm being undetected. Result from your wish =,, Gallen walks to the sheds, Queensland get a penalty, Inglis scores a try and Queensland get another 3 or 4 because NSW now have 12 men defending.. Yeah Fomz, great idea, -- I bet the sharkies fans would love you to, for the following 5-6 week suspension.. Funny mate, you are a real comedian, sorta dark humour, I just failed to see it... Best of luck with the cheerleaders, they'll probably get a bigger larf out of you than we did..
A1
Guest
Cmon guys he's joking. I hope.
Queensland's Game Is Rugby League
Guest
I thought the comment about the cheerleaders was more low browish than humorous. I don't think there's any need for it to be brought into a sports forum. 14yo boys say that sort of thing to make themselves look big in front of their mates.
Queensland's Game Is Rugby League
Guest
Pearce doesn't have the creativity to be a great halback. I cannot recall seeing him read the game very astutely. Maybe it's because I don't watch many Roosters matches -- I only tune in when they're playing the Queensland sides -- but the times I've seen him he play he hasn't looked like a halfback that can make the right decision at the right time to create space for his ball runners, which is what all great ballplayers need to be able to do if they are to win the big matches when they are there to be won. Anasta seems to be better at reading the game. When he sees a player or two out of position or tiring he puts himself at first receiver on that side of the field, calls for the ball, runs it at the line so he can draw a player or two in, then passes to the ball runner who is in the best position to capitalise on it.
Arthur Fonzarelli
Guest
You Queenslanders have no sense of humour. I thought winners were grinners ?
Queensland's Game Is Rugby League
Guest
You need to grow up and get a life. How old are you, 14?
Queensland's Game Is Rugby League
Guest
DIdn't QLD lead by almost 20 points at one stage in SOO 3 2011?
Arthur Fonzarelli
Guest
OK Meesta Cool & Mango Jack, I will rephrase. As a passionate New South Welshman, I would find a perverse pleasure in seeing a stray, undetected Paul Gallen swinging arm make careless or reckless contact with Cameron Smith's dimple, causing him some minor inconvenience and some facial swelling. Now if you'll excuse me I am off to Inspiration Point with some QLD Cheerleaders.
Mango Jack
Guest
Nice. I'd like to see you say that to his face, Fonz. Just like your namesake, you're probably all bluff.
Pano777
Guest
Go blues!!!! -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Meesta Cool
Guest
Artheur, I find this post very offensive and can't for the life of me undersatn how it got by yhe moderators. You want to SMASH one of thwe best RL players in the world,, I hate your sentiment!. Please go rejoin your gang in a slimy alley somewhere!. This forum isn't for those type of comments..
Arthur Fonzarelli
Guest
Fo rme a NSW victory will have nothing to do with the scoreboard. I will be celebrating if somebody can turn Cameron Smith's face into a smashed crab. Maybe Nick D'Arcy could get a Blue jersey ?? Bring on the Cattledog.
Damo
Guest
The halves are where its all at. Queensland have two of the best at the mo and had one of the best of all time up until last year. Nsw have a hot and cold Carney and one of the worst players to ever play for the blues. It's no wonder NSW have lost for years.
Dan Wighton
Roar Guru
Orford was selected but never actually got a game for the Blues.
nswBender
Guest
If you look at the halves NSW have thown into the mix since 2000, it's no surprise why the games went the way they did. In the early 2000's QLD were struggling to find a halves combo, hence the Lam, Ikin, Green, Wagon experiments until Locky moved to five-eight in 2004. Since then NSW have had a couple unusual ones... Gasnier & Lyon scream of desperation, trying to fit a circle into a square hole! Post 2000 Halves: NSW - Johns, Barrett, Kimmorley, Toovey, Anasta, Timmins, Gower, Gasnier, Finch, Mullen, Orford, Lyon, Bird, Wallace, Pearce, Campese, Soward, Carney. - 18 QLD - Lam, Ikin, Green, Wagon, Berrigan, Prince, Langer, Hunt, Lockyer, Cronk, Thurston - 11 Did I miss any?
Raugeee
Guest
This is a hard match to pick. F'rinstance - how much of an affect did the flu have on QLD? Also, haven't seen a match decided by injuries for a while. Which side will lose 3 players before 1/2 time? Finally, talking of overdue, is Gallen going to give away one of his trademark knucklehead penalties? Or, even better, throw one of his suicide passes.....All said and done I'm tipping the Blues by 1 point
A1
Guest
If there was real competition for the halfback spot, Pearce wouldn't be there.
Charles
Guest
That is the very crunch to the problem as you say, who has been dominant in the key positions in NSW. It is clear the selection criteria for NSW has been very poor to say the least! We fail to keep senior players longer, jumping onto the next potential player as our saviour. We have also failed to nuture future prospects preferring to throw them into the lions den and see how they go. As an example; Greg Bird should be 5/8 until such times as we have someone knocking on the door and then on the bench to give them time to soak up the atmosphere. Todd Carney is now knocking on the door and what do we do, we throw him in such a crucial role first up and hope for the best! Then if they don't perform we change and we will keep changing players undermining confidence. Brett Morris is one of our best players and yet discarded without any thought what it is doing for his confidence, Jamie Soward another and the list goes on! QLD will work on that player and fix up the problem instead of discarding the player. We are getting some headway now but it has been a long process when it should not have been!
Charles
Guest
I think that is the biggest problem Ryan, both halves have not been performing! If Carney is firing he will make Pearce look good especially as Farar will do some of the 1/2 back role!