Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat take their talents to South Beach today for Game 3 of the 2012 NBA Finals. With the series locked at 1-1, who will claim the all-important third contest? Find out from 10am AEST and join The Roar as we take in the action live from American Airlines Arena.
Statistical history is a funny thing.
It tells us that the winner of Game 3 goes on to win the NBA title 85% of the time, which sounds like pretty good odds.
However cast your mind back just 12 months to the series between Miami and Dallas. The Heat led Game 3 all night to prevail 88-86 on the road, but ended up losing the following three, and the title, to Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavericks.
That’s the beauty of sports. While we revel in the endless ocean of stats, trends and data that is available at our very fingertips, the greatest anomalies can throw all of it out the window in a matter of minutes. That’s why they play the game, and that’s why we love it.
With the next three games scheduled in Florida, a home court sweep by Miami would be enough to clinch the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy without having to head back to the formidable Midwest – but don’t count on it.
Oklahoma is an athletic young side that will go to Miami bullish of taking one, perhaps two of the three and returning home to their rapturous fans.
The Thunder never recovered from an early 18-2 deficit last Thursday and while valiant in what was ultimately a narrow defeat, it’s the sort of lethargy Oklahoma can’t afford if they are to break through for the franchise’s first title (or second if you count the 1979 Seattle Sonics).
But one thing we have learned from the series so far is that this team simply does not quit.
They trailed Dallas in the opening round and won. They were in a 2-0 hole against the hottest team in the country and won. Heck, they even almost battled back from 16 down in Game 2. The Thunder are young, hungry and tenacious and won’t hit the canvas without a fight to the bitter end.
A crucial indictor within this series is the play of Russell Westbrook, one of the most polarising figures in the NBA. While there is no doubting his talent and work-ethic, questions have been asked of the dynamic point guard’s style of play.
After the Game 2 loss, Westbrook said, “I’m not making no adjustments.” [sic]
“Regardless of what anybody says, it doesn’t matter. I’m going to play my game. I’m going to go out and give 110% and help us try to win a game.”
Be that as it may, many observers suggest shooting the ball 50 times might not be the best way to achieve that, particularly with the elite supporting cast by his side. Granted Westbrook has scored 54 points, but it’s come at the cost of starving Kevin Durant – the NBA scoring leader who is accumulating more the 16 final quarter points this series – and James Harden, who had 17 first half points in game two but took just two second half shots.
On the other side of the equation LeBron James is doing exactly what he needs to in order to secure that elusive ring.
Although the series is just two games old, the NBA MVP is averaging 31.5 points per game compared to the paltry 19.5 throughout last year’s Finals (marginally more than Durant’s fourth quarter output this year).
Perhaps the biggest difference is James’ willingness to attack the lane and get to the line. LeBron converted 12/12 free throws in game two and is shooting more than 90% over the series, an area that has previously been an Achilles heel.
Miami will be looking for more from Dwayne Wade who is averaging just 22.8 points throughout the playoffs – his worst scoring output since his first post-season appearance in 2003-04. But when flanked by James and Chris Bosh, perhaps the scoring onus is not weighing as heavily on Wade’s shoulders?
He’s clearly being hampered by a sore knee, but Miami will be counting on just a few more quality starts from the man who won it all with the Heat in 2006.
So who do you have? Miami to defend their home court or Oklahoma to gain the ascendency on the road? The only thing we know for now is that in just a few hours time, someone will hold a 2-1 series lead which is good enough to win the NBA title 85% of the time – if you believe the stats…
mushi
Guest
Great job defensively by both sides. Miami's willingness to attack the basket was the difference.
Johnno
Guest
Miami now in a good position in the series.
mushi
Guest
They defended him in the offseason also. PR101 also has a lecture on protect your star and deflect blame from your coach.
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
That all depends on perspective. If you like lock down defence, it was good to watch. Miami particularly starved OKC of any open looks.
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
FULL TIME: Miami 91 d. Oklahoma City 85 (Miami leads the best of seven series 2-1) James: 29 points (11-23), 6-8 FT, 14 rebounds (5 offensive) Wade: 25 points (8-22), 9-11 FT, 7 rebounds, 7 assists Bosh: 10 points (3-12), 4-4 FT, 11 rebounds Durant: 25 points (11-19), 2-4 FT, 6 rebounds Westbrook: 19 points (8-18), 2-2 FT, 5 rebounds, 4 assists Perkins: 10 points (3-5), 4-6 FT, 12 rebounds (6 offensive) So there you have it. Miami defends their home court and history shows us that the winner of Game 3 goes on to win the NBA title 85% of the time. The story of the game is surely the free throws, of which Miami made 31-35 to Oklahoma's 15-24 (including nine misses in the final quarter). Furthermore, Durant and Westbrook were limited to just six combined free throws which is well below their usual output. Miami crashed the offensive glass with 14 boards in their attacking end, providing opportunities for second chance points that were gleefully cashed by the likes of James and Wade. While Bosh had an off shooting night, he contributed 11 rebounds including a team-high five offensive. There's no denying Durant's early foul trouble impacted the game, but don't forget the Thunder extended their lead to 10 points with both he and Westbrook on the bench. Westbrook also started to go missing late in the game, finishing with just 8-18 shooting, but he only turned the ball over twice. Critics can't hassle him for not providing opportunities to James Harden like they did following Game 2 with "the beard" shooting a dismal 2-10 including 0-4 from beyond the arc. Oklahoma now must re-group before Tuesday's Game 4 (Wednesday AEST) or else they'll be facing a sudden-death situation in Miami's own building. Join us for live coverage from early Wednesday morning as Oklahoma tries to recover from a disappointing outing today.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Supporting cast delivers 25 points. Oklahoma City shoot 15-24 from the free throw line. Miami win.
Scotty Barby
Roar Guru
What a mess of a fourth quarter... The standard of basketball nosedived. That was painful to watch.
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
Smothering defence by Miami from the Oklahoma inbound pass and Sefolosha throws the ball away. Westbrook is forced to foul and that's as good as game over. Miami 91-85 with 13 seconds to play. Heat players have been near flawless from the line converting 31 of 35 free throws compared to a miserable 15-24 for OKC.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Another really good final
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
Misses from Durant, James and Westbrook in the final minute keep the Miami lead at three. Terrible play from Harden to foul James with just 16 seconds remaining. You can't fault his tenacity in trying to force the turnover, but not after 20 seconds has elapsed on the shot clock. James makes one of two from the line - Heat by 4 with 16.2 seconds left.
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
Bosh hit hard as he goes to the hoop. The shot doesn't drop, but he makes both free throws to give the Heat a three-point lead. Oklahoma in possession with 1:19 to play and Brooks calls another time out. Fifteen minutes to play the final final 79 seconds? Why not. Buckle up folks!
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
ONE POINT GAME! What a stunning turnaround by the Thunder, scoring six points in less than 30 seconds courtesy of two free throws, a Sefolosha steal/dunk combo and then a 17-foot Westbrook jumper that saw nothing but net. This team just does not die!
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
Oklahoma can't buy a bucket, LeBron can't miss. Heat lead out to seven points with a tick over two minutes to play. We've seen this young and determined Thunder team come back from similar deficits with such little time before, but surely this is a bridge too far... ?
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
Monstrous blow landed by LeBron James who attack Kevin Durant, draws the foul - his fifth - and makes the bucket. The conversion of the three-point play had the Heat ahead 84-77 as Brooks calls time out. Oklahoma hasn't scored for four minutes - a combination of turnovers, poor shot selection and smothering Miami defence.
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
The building springs to life as Wade completes a three-point play before Harden throws the ball away. All of the momentum with the home team right now, leading 81-77 with four minutes to play.
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
Miami has almost as many turnovers this quarter than they've had for the entire game, yet they still own a one-point lead. Just 6:30 to play in South Beach.
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
Welcome to the game Mario. Chalmers makes a pretty reverse lay-up to register his first points on 1-7 shooting.
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
Westbrook hits a pull up jumper, Collison steals from James and Durant throws it down on the feed from Harden. Great cohesion from Oklahoma City who bring it back to a one-point game as Spo calls a time out. If you're a neutral basketball fan, this is going to be a really fun finish to watch.
Alistair Hogg
Roar Pro
Strap yourselves in folks. Here we go! Quarter 4 is underway. The starting units are: OKC: Westbrook, Durant, Harden, Fisher, Collison MIA: James, Wade, Chalmers, Haslem, Jones
Scotty Barby
Roar Guru
Miami are 30-1 at home when leading after 3 quarters. OKC are 5-9 on the road when trailing after 3 quarters.