The not particularly evocatively named Mr Price Kings Park, Durban. The not overly fan-friendly time of 3:10 am, Sunday eighth July.
One of those intra-South African games where the casual rugby watcher is still not certain where the teams come from.
And yet possibly it should be the focus of attention for Reds followers – if only for those elusive bonus points.
For the Reds to get to the Super Rugby finals they have to either get past the Brumbies to top the Australian conference or make it into the top six across the three conferences. Either way, they pretty much have to win their last three games (against the Rebels, Highlanders and Waratahs – not a series of gimmes by any means, but let’s be optimistic).
If the Brumbies can win two of their last three (Force, Waratahs and Blues), they’re a good chance of staying top regardless of the Reds’ results – and that they’ll win two of those games at least looks the percentage bet to me.
That leaves the Reds supporter to wonder if they can get into the top six instead. Currently, the Highlanders are equal with them in eighth on 44 points, with the Hurricanes and Sharks in equal sixth on 45, and the Brumbies and Bulls in equal fourth on 49. Since we’ve already given the Brumbies a leave pass, that suggests the Crusaders on 51, Stormers on 54 and Chiefs on 58 should get the same benefit.
So can the Reds get to sixth by outpacing the Highlanders and overtaking two of the teams in front of them? Bonus points would certainly help. Beyond that, they can help themselves directly only against the Highlanders – the Reds winning that game pretty much puts the Highlanders out.
Unfortunately, the next two targets (the Hurricanes and Sharks) both have a bye in the last three weeks (as do the Highlanders). The Hurricanes’ last two games on the other hand are both eminently losable – against the Crusaders and Chiefs, meaning there’s a real chance for the Reds to get in front of them.
That puts the Sharks in the crosshairs – their last two games are against the Bulls (at home in Durban) and the Cheetahs. You’d have to fancy them in a must win game against the Cheetahs, meaning their game against the Bulls becomes potentially the most crucial one for the Reds.
If the Sharks win, that could be enough to keep them just in front of the Reds. The double whammy for the Reds is that even if the Bulls lose that one, their other two remaining games against the Cheetahs and Lions will probably yield enough points to keep them in front of the Reds.
Hence all that attention on Mr Price Kings Park.
sph45
Guest
Revisiting this article halfway through Sharks-Bulls game. Bulls must win or Reds likely to miss finals.
dianne
Guest
when are aussie teams going to realize that its so boring winning on penalties,when they do ,kiwis love and go for tries makes the game more exciting ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,and of course having good ref
dianne
Guest
you have to be joking dont you you cant put loser team in just because they won last year,and you must like show offs,but look whats happened to them this year.thats what match fixing is,or dont you know that
Red Kev
Guest
Coming in 5th is the worst possible result for the Reds as they'll end up having to travel to play the Bulls. They want to scrape in at 6th, or leapfrog to 4th (which will only happen if the Sharks beat the Bulls this weekend). If they start from 6 they play the Brumbies in the first round of the finals, if they start from 4 they host someone at Suncorp in the first week. Travelling to South Africa for anything other than the Grand Final is to be avoided if at all possible. I guess it will come down to luck. The Reds should just concentrate on winning both remaining games.
Jarmen
Guest
Hope your rethinkig your final 6 Billtongbek. Hurricanes are still very much in the finals hunt
Jarmen
Guest
So in effect you are wanting the Waratahs to throw games so other Australian teams can get into the finals? You do realise that this would be deemed match fixing in a court of law and serious repercussions could be had. Pretty sad day for Australian rugby when you have fans condoning such dispicable scenarios.
dcnz
Guest
biltongbek! my team the Hurricanes are still in bro, and they could knock out the Sharks or the Reds right? :) And we have scored more tries than any other team!
David Barbeler
Guest
After an interesting weekend of rugby the Reds are the second most likely out of the four teams (Sharks, Reds, Crusaders and Hurricanes) vying for the bottom 2 WC spots to make the finals. If I were a betting man, I'd say the Crusaders will, unbelievably, miss the finals for the first time in yonks. Both them and the Canes have to play the Chiefs - but only the Canes have them at home. However even if the the Canes do beat the Chiefs with their red hot form, they then have a bye. Meaning Qld only has to nab one bonus point win in the two matches. Sharks have a tough road as well with a match against the Bulls next week. The Reds have two very competitive matches, albeit at Suncorp, and I don't need to tell you what goes on there. But, with the draw the way it is, they MAY even have the luxury of dropping one match. Although you wouldn't want to. You heard it here first: 1. Chiefs 2. Stormers 3. Brumbies 4. Bulls 5. Reds 6. Hurricanes
justsaying
Guest
The Sharks are a point ahead of the Reds now Suzy, so the Reds will need bonus points from all 3 remaining games to cement 6th place (although I guess the Sharks are unlikely to get a bonus point against the Bulls, so 2 BPs will probably do).
Suzy Poison
Guest
Good analysis Bek. It’s a straight shoot-out between the Sharks and the Reds for sixth spot. The Sharks and Reds are both running into form and it will close. If the Reds secure three wins, two with bonus points, they will get that sixth spot. As they will draw with Sharks on points, but have an extra win, and so they get thru. Bonus points are crucial here, plus both teams can’t afford to lose. One loss and it’s over. For the Sharks-Bulls game, I am tipping the Sharks to beat the Bulls in Durban. For me, he returning Boks, Coetzee, J.P Pietersen, Bismark, Jannie, Beast, Alberts all came out of the Bok-England games with credit and are in form. Whilst The Bulls Bok players, were less impressive. Hougaard and Morne had a poor game in PE. Kruger, Wynand, Kirchner have all been okay, but not great. Add to that the return from injury of Lambie, and the extra week of rest, and it’s looking good for the Sharks. Then of course, there is the one player that the Boks really missed against England in the last test. I am talking about Frans Steyn. He was massive in the first two tests, and I think he alone will make a huge difference in Durban.
In my view the hurricanes and Higlanders are out, they have the toughest matches left and I can't see them progressing further. the last spot is between the Sharks and the Reds. The Chiefs, Stormers, Crusaders and Brumbies are in, the Bulls have two relatively easy matches vs the Cheetahs and Lions, and the one match where the Reds would support the Bulls is to beat the Sharks. I think the Reds can win all three their matches, but doubt if they will score 4 try bonus points in all three, so their hope is the Bulls beat the Sharks. The simgle most important result for the Reds.
stuff happens
Guest
I agree that, not for the first time, the final six will not be clear until the final game. The leading NZ teams have a harder run in over the next three weeks than their main competitors in SA. That plus the byes & possible aftershocks of the tests & more or less anything could happen.
Justin2
Guest
I think he is one of the most exciting players on the planet. No long bow at all.
Jutsie
Guest
Whilst I would like to see both the reds and ACT make the finals it could be a blessing in disguise for the wallabies if the reds miss out. It was clear that a few of the reds guys were worn out during the test season last year (horwill, genia, simmons).
Sprigs
Guest
May the Force, I mean, the Reds, be with you.
justsaying
Guest
Smells a bit like that Brumbies game last year doesn't it?
Argyle
Roar Guru
Mate I thought I was the most one-eyed biased Red's fan but you win Obe-Wan! I am forever your pupil...
RebelRanger
Guest
Are you being sarcastic?
Sprigs
Guest
As a Reds fan, I call upon those giants who rule the Super 15 to intervene if the Reds don't quallify for the final six. They should put the Reds in by dint of being reigning champion. Yes, bump off one of the NZ teams. There will probably be one too many there if it goes on like this. It would be great for the game to to see Quade, Will Genia, and Digby Ioane do their thing. And there are also the cult players like Beau Robinson and Radike Samo. So let's give the punters what they want.
Sprigs
Guest
The crowds think so.. He drags them in...