Bradley Wiggins will be under siege throughout this year’s Tour de France. The Team Sky rider, seemingly favoured by a time trial heavy parcours, will have to be at his very, very best if he is to even make the podium, let alone ride away with the yellow jersey.
In fact, it is his time trialling ability that might prove his downfall. Far from being the strongest climber in the group, Wiggins will rely heavily on the solo discipline to make up any time he may lose in the mountains. His rivals are keenly aware of this and will attack him relentlessly on the climbs.
Relying solely on the time trial to make up lost ground is fraught with danger. Cadel Evans attempted it in 2007 and 2008 but came up short as Carlos Sastre and then Alberto Contador held onto slender leads to claim outright victory.
Wiggins may face the same scenario, and as brilliant as he is against the clock, how sharp will he be coming into the stage 19 time trial? Will his power have been blunted from three weeks worth of trying to limit his losses through the hills?
Make no mistake, this will be a hard Tour for Wiggins. While he goes into the race as favourite and in career best form, the likes of Evans, Nibali, Schleck, Sanchez, Gesink and Menchov will all try to put time into him on the mountains, and all of them are capable of doing it.
He will have strong support on the climbs – Richie Porte and Michael Rogers are both class acts and in form – but Wiggins will still have to turn himself inside out to stay with the true mountain men.
And it must not be forgotten that Evans and Menchov are more than handy time triallists themselves. Nibali and Sanchez are no mugs either. Give any of them more than a couple of minutes coming into stage 19 and they will fight tooth and nail to defend their lead.
Forget the time Wiggins made up on Evans at the Dauphine time trial, that won’t happen here. Not after three weeks of racing.
Another distraction, and one that has sent the media into overdrive, is the Mark Cavendish conundrum.
Despite the near hysteria, it is not the first time a team has had to support both a sprinter and general classification hope. Even this year we have Team Liquigas with Nibali and Sagan, Team Rabobank with Gesink and Renshaw, Team Lotto-Belisol with van den Broeck and Greipel and Team Garmin with Hesjedal and Farrar.
While it is probably more of an issue in the media than within the team, it is nevertheless distracting and is one more thing that Wiggins will have to block out.
Wiggins is under enormous pressure to succeed. As well as his own hopes and dreams, he carries the expectations of his nation, a nation that craves success, yet often has to settle for second best. Can he take them that one step further?
Or will he just become another Andy Murray? Nearly there, but not quite.
Cadel Evans didn’t handle the pressure well when he went into the Tour as favourite back in 2009. Visibly grumpy and mostly out of sorts, his riding suffered.
Can Wiggins blot out the pressure and focus on the job at hand? He will need to, because when it comes to the mountains, that outside pressure will be the least of his worries.
Scott
Guest
Well Sean Lee - your predictions were a bit off. No make that a mile off, lol. On top of that Andy Murray won the Olympic gold in tennis, lmao.
crowls
Guest
Good read guys, having seen Wiggins performance this year, we can see the benefit the changes in training and approach have had on his ability Good article here on Sky preparation http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/may/23/bradley-wiggins-tour-de-france based on his performances this year and reading the training background, it would appear that Wiggins will be very difficult to break. The only question is will he have a bad legs day and can Cadel take advantage when it occurs. I am fan of both but want to see Cadel repeat. For that to happen a lot is going to have to go in his and BMC's favor. Another good video is on bicycling.com where they interview Chris Horner after stage 6 or 7 and his scathing remarks on BMC hiring multimillion dollar classics riders and leaving Evans without mountain support.
Bob
Guest
Wiggins has not proved himself over 3 weeks, and if Wiggins is Sky's priority then why is Cav in the team as Cav is a stage winner not a support rider, he should be going for the green jersey if not then he shouldnt be there.
Ben zerbe
Guest
On the back of Roubaix I am going belgium for the Olympic road race ;)
Ben zerbe
Guest
On the back of Roubaix I am going belgium for the Olympic road race ;)
Ben zerbe
Guest
Wiggins is not the only rider beating Tony Martins in the time trials.
Aljay
Guest
Bones, he's definitely one of the best racers/competitors in the peleton now but he's developed it over the years. Think back to his 2nd in the 07 TdF when the non-Australian media storyline on him was that he would have been an unpopular winner because he didn't attack/compete/take risks but just hung on. I remember Rupert Guiness contrasting him at the time to Phil Anderson who won a lot of support due to his willingness to attack and take risks. Cadel is willing to do this now, but it seems to be something he has developed over the years. So what do you reckon about Wiggins finishing in the hundreds more often than in the top twenty in GTs?
Aljay
Guest
Munchkin, what Wiggins wins are you referring to? There have been none in a 3 week race. Also - I'm not so sure if it criticising as much as it is hoping/praying there is some sort of weakeness that an Aussie rider can take advantage of.
Bones506
Roar Guru
If wiggins is the absolute priority then you don't take Cav. You take someone Like Hunt. Cav will want stage wins. He is not a support rider. He is also no help in the Mountains.
Bones506
Roar Guru
Over Boonen's Roubaix effort!
Al-Bo
Guest
Yeah, it wasn't really a serious comment, but at the same time it is just one of the many little things he's done over the years with a view to climbing better. He could get a haircut though. Definitely a few grammes of weight to be saved there.
Munchkin
Roar Rookie
Seems like everyone is quick to criticise the likes of Mark Cavendish and Bradley Wiggins yet they forget the wins these two guys have had! Good luck to Mark and Bradley and Yes they will be on the podium! Bradley Wiggins will win the time trial with Mark Cavendish on the podium in a few stages.
Saint EC
Guest
Cav has publically stated that the yellow jersey is the number 1 goal for team Sky, and that he'll be doing his best to help Wiggins achieve it. He has lost 4 kg in the last few months, losing some of his sprinting power, to help achieve this goal. Cav has also stated he's targetting Olympic gold ahead of the green jersey, which is very believable. I'm sure Team Sky would like Cav to win some stages, but be clear that Wiggins is absolutely #1 priority at the moment.
liquorbox_
Guest
After the way Wiggins TT'd up a mountain TT at the end of Paris-Nice I think he will have no worries in the mountains, he will set a pace and be a deisel engine and just stay the same pace from bottom to top, but it will be a quick pace. Dont expect any surges in pace but he will get there in good time. His effort in the TT I mentioned is my ride of the season so far
Bones506
Roar Guru
I think Cadel has been a 'real' bike racer for some time. He has finsihed the TDF in second twice before eventually won and also won World Champs in 2010. His years of Moutain bike racing have placed him in excellent stead to continue to fight even when it appears you are beaten. Winning does not make you a real bike racer - attacking and enduring when you are against the ropes and cracking your opponents is what the game is all about.
Bones506
Roar Guru
Absolutely agree with that statement. He is good at jumping wheels but it will be hard when the likes of Orica-GreenEDGE have an entire team devoted to lead outs in the first week. I expect Goss to have ~5 riders in front of him with a few other trying to run 'interference' as the final sprint stages shape up. Cav is great but how do you crack a 5-6 man lead out train. You simply can't and if you do it is very rare. Goss will be able to hold him off should Cav have to try and jump so many wheels. Going to be awsome sprinting.
Bones506
Roar Guru
Only British Male Track Cyclist to not take Gold. He got Silver. Cav is the current World Champ and with that goes a lot of 'rights' if you will.
Aljay
Guest
Enjoyable article Sean, I think there is two factors affecting Wiggins' chances on top of the podium this year. You've nailed the first one with the dual effort of having the favourite for the Green jersey in the same team - I mean, what happens 4 kms out on a flat stage when the Sky train is on the front? Does Wiggins get involved or not? What about his key climbing lieutenants? The second factor is what you've mentioned about how he deals with the mental weight of favouritism. Wiggins has only ever finished 8 Grand Tours, and massively, only placed inside the top TWENTY twice. The first of these was a fourth in the 2009 Tour where he announced himself as a GC contender for the first time by defying everyone's expectations and sticking with the leaders on the biggest climbs. This was a pressure-free ride where any high placing would be considered a success. The second of these was a 3rd in the 2011 Vuelta, where he went into the race as a favourite, grabbed the leaders jersey and then in the face of expectation to win, lost it again. Wiggins is yet to prove he has the experience and nous to win a three-week tour. We have seen Cadel build this experience and nous over a number of years, going from talented endurance athlete who never attacked in 2007 to becoming a real bike racer last year and this (stage 4 in last years Tour, Dauphine stage win this year as prime examples). As a favourite Cadel has come close in several Grand Tours before finally using that experience to break through last year. The question is, does Wiggins have this experience and can he handle the pressure of favouritism? Does he need to lose a few the way Cadel did? Given that Wiggins hasrarely fought the other top GC contenders, never worn the yellow jersey and has never won a stage of the Tour (has he won a stage of any GT?) this might be another learning year, no matter how strong his domestiques have looked in the buildup.
Fausto Coppi
Guest
I think it was meant to be a jocular comment, jameswm. Cool down, son.
sittingbison
Guest
or more importantly if Cav starts struggling (through not enough team support) Cav will start making noise. Excellent observations bones. Of interest will be how Wiggins handles the various pressures and scenarios brought to bear in a three week race with HIGH mountains in consecutive stages as opposed to a single week race with hills and low mountains. He has not handled the pressure before, and has a particular personality that is on full display. Sean nice article, yes Wiggns will be under siege, I'm also of the opinion he will either win or crack due to his personality, no grinding out a podium place.