John Sutton had a blinder last weekend. That sentence alone should convince you that something is rotten in Denmark, that the world has turned upside down.
But there’s more. Parramatta are beating premiership contenders. Melbourne and Brisbane are sinking down the ladder. Souths are finally putting it all together.
The last few weeks prove the aphorism that, all talent being relatively equal, most sporting events come down to who is most psychologically fit.
The South Sydney club is fielding its most dangerous attacking team in my lifetime, with gamebreakers spread across the park. They even found a way to win without their two most influential players against the Wests Tigers, thanks to an elevated performance by a player whose emotional commitment has been previously questioned by this writer, the aforementioned John Sutton.
Absorbing personnel losses while finding other avenues through which to dominate requires mental strength. Souths, surely thanks to Michael Maguire, have achieved a high level in this area and therefore will be there for the big games at season’s end.
Brisbane failed a similar test against a team whose psyche must have transformed profoundly over the last six weeks, Parramatta.
Peter Sterling stated that Stephen Kearney had a right to be angry given the Eels’ turnaround in form since Kearney was fired.
But that doesn’t take into account the mental and emotional relief that can flood a club when management changes.
I have no idea how the players felt about Kearney- except for what I saw on the field. For whatever reason, they clearly had no desire to excel for their coach.
Kearney was renowned for his unflagging belief in structures; it is no coincidence that Chris Sandow is starting to surprise defenders with his running game in recent weeks, as Kearney’s influence and control have waned.
Sandow’s ‘confidence’ has returned – a word that could just as easily denote a changing bias; instead of assuming failure, Sandow may be starting to develop a bias that presumes success when he runs the football and chances his arm.
He, along with Joseph Paulo, Ryan Morgan and debutant Jake Mullaney, is reaping the benefits of a psychologically changed football team.
Then we have a team that I’ve recently spoken of, the Melbourne Storm. Melbourne right now don’t seem to trust in their core, and with good reason: Billy Slater isn’t himself yet and Cam Smith and Cooper Cronk have lost form.
While this team doesn’t have the support crew that Souths have in order to win despite the loss of form of their big three, they are also clearly psychologically vulnerable. Recent games show a forward pack with no confidence (diminished aggression in their running game). Members of their backline are also avoiding high involvement, clearly waiting for someone else to create opportunities.
Craig Bellamy is in many ways the modern iteration of Warren Ryan: a coach who demands absolute adherence to innovative tactics and structure. Due to sustained success, his players have been ready to commit.
However, as in Ryan’s later years with Balmain and then Wests and Newcastle, things can fall apart quickly if the psychological commitment starts to weaken.
Bellamy’s strength is his intellect, but he’s not beloved by his players. They may not give him as much latitude as other coaches if they begin to doubt his approach. Having said that, I expect this team to regroup.
Psychological approach, preparation and training is still largely an unexplored terrain for most players and coaches in the NRL. The best players naturally have high levels of mental strength and acuity.
The best coaches manage to bring their support crews up to a similar standard.
With physical exhaustion at its peak before the anticipation of the finals starts to build, it’s the stuff between the players’ ears that is causing the massive fluctuations of form we’re currently witnessing in the world’s most unpredictable sporting competition.
Meesta Cool
Guest
how can anyone look past Bulldogs, barring salary cap problemss this team will be at the top for quite a while!. Best forward pack I have ever seen in 60 yrs of watching Rugby League... 2nd best coach in league and a really good 'spine'.
Meesta Cool
Guest
If Barba keeps improving under Des, Billy Slater will be playing club football through next seasons origin... one less to worry about.. lol No wonder Des is whingeing about SOO timing, he can't keep his stars out of it forever!.
Bazzio
Roar Guru
You don't get it! No disputing coaching duration . . . . ~ 10 years of Bellamy = bad experience for players & spectators = spare me, please!
Bazzio
Roar Guru
Dragons "hitting their straps" . . . . . after how many losses??? "Titans are hitting form" . . . . . Ditto as above Souths ~ 2 Origin players not as hard to cover for as losing 3 or 4 Cowboys have so far bucked the trend although key players have remained injury free (so far).
The High Shot
Roar Pro
Keep going with that analysis and you'll come up with the opposite conclusion. The teams you mentioned had MINIMAL involvement with SOO. The teams that contributed most, both in terms of numbers and/or individual value to their club are the ones who are struggling. I'll allow the Cows as the exception to the rule.
Brendan
Roar Rookie
Souths had 2 players in SOO Titans are hitting form and they had 3 in SOO Dragons are hitting their straps they had 3 in SOO Bulldogs had Josh Morris, and he has found amazing form Cowboys had 4 in SOO and they are climbing the ladder still... I think SOO level of contribution has nothing to do with slump in form. I think the older players from state of origin are in fact getting older. Especially the QLD side who it seems to have had an effect on, if they can't handle the heat, get out of the kitchen.
The High Shot
Roar Pro
You're probably right but there was a long stretch prior to Origin where they had every team looking over their shoulder for the Sharks. Also they've been dicked out of victories by blatantly shite refereeing in no less than 3 games this season so they should be sitting a lot prettier than they are. Origin has robbed them of Gallen and also rocked Carney's confidence.
Steve
Guest
Wait: I've just seen there are two different Steves in this conversation and we're saying completely different things to the same guy- MG: there are two Steves, not one guy with a split personality.
MG Burbank
Roar Guru
Of course you're right, Anakin- he's a fantastic coach who's had great success. But even the best coaches sometimes need to change their approach. Bellamy may need to loosen the reins on himself and his teams to continue to be successful.
MG Burbank
Roar Guru
Baz, I actually like your observation. I've noticed it too- Bellamy blows up at the smallest error or missed chance. It's reflective of a perfectionist who, while being an outstanding coach who's had success, is not necessarily popular with players.
Anakin
Guest
2003-2012 inclusive ... equates to 10 years to me!
Bazzio
Roar Guru
So?? ~ A time comes when everyone has had enough. Maybe it's that time for Storm players. You REALLY think everything happens immediately? Coaching wears thin on players OVER TIME, not OVERNIGHT!. 10 years of Bellamy? Spare me, please!
Anakin
Guest
@ Bazzio - mate he's been like that from day 1, do u really think it'd take this long to infect the players if Bellamy was the prob? Give yourself an uppercut champ, and check the stats from the last decade!
Bazzio
Roar Guru
I'm thinking Dragons & Souths = Grudge Match +
Bazzio
Roar Guru
One look at Bellamy going beserk when anything - big or small - goes wrong tells you everything you need to know. He's unstable, and that instability has found it's way into the players who probably worry about what Bellamy's going to say rather than what they should be doing on-field and in play.
Steve
Guest
Some truth to that, but you wouldn't gain anything by having a situation where one team can buy a premiership and then snowball money, supporters and resources while other teams sink into the abyss. At least in the NRL your team can hit rock bottom and realistically stand a chance of working its way back up. Souths have actually had to work bloody hard to be so consistently awful for so long.
Smell The Win
Guest
Good article mate. The question isn't so much if the Broncs or the Storm regain form, the real question is can Souths and Canterbury stay in form and injury free? If they do, it will be the most anticipated Grand Final in years! Both teams are equally talented across the park and both Coaches deserve the Coach of the Year Award! I think Melbourne have lost their most powerful weapon, their perceived invincibility! The Bronco's are one year too early age and experience wise, and Manly hav'nt been convincing all year. Canterbury and South's Grand Final gets me salivating just thinking about it!
MG Burbank
Roar Guru
I'm with you on Manly. I do think that they'll miss Hasler's guidance in the big games but their sheer talent can overcome that. I agree with you on the Cowboys, too. They have a scary core: Bowen, Tate, Thurston, Tamou, Sims, Scott. Plenty of class. I'm not sure Neil Henry is a strong enough presence to have his team play consistently enough to win the comp, however.
MG Burbank
Roar Guru
Cronulla simply do not, nor have they ever had, enough class to contend for the title. They may make the 8, which will be a fine achievement for this team.
MG Burbank
Roar Guru
I wouldn't call this Souths team mediocre, Steve, although I agree that the current cap system does not produce champion teams on a regular basis, something which needs to be addressed. Sports fans love to watch a true No 1 fight off challengers to its throne.