Based on current form, ladder standing, past results, injuries and a little bit of bias, I think the 2012 AFL Premiership race is down to just two competitors.
Now before you jump down my throat, just have a listen to my reasoning.
Firstly, who do I realistically think will make up the top eight at the end of the season?
I think Sydney, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Adelaide, West Coast, Geelong, North Melbourne, Fremantle will play in September.
With what could be considered an easy run home and some fantastic form, I’m backing North to finally get out of that ninth spot and hit the finals hard.
Now, If I’m wrong (I am human after all) it won’t change what I think will be the end result.
Firstly, let’s look at the bookmakers favourite and the most in-form team right now, the Hawthorn Hawks.
With a good list, few serious injuries, Hodge and Buddy back and plenty of players who have been there, done that, the Hawks are the natural choice for the flag. The majority of people in the media and in online forums tend to agree.
My other candidate is the Sydney Swans.
With all the talk of them flying under the radar, they are top of the ladder for a reason. They win games. They may not have the prettiest style of play (although looking at Lewis Jetta highlights might make you think otherwise) but they get the job done, at home and away.
While most people think it will be the Hawks who lift the cup, Sydney was the last team in premiership contention to beat them. And they did so convincingly too.
I just don’t think any of the others can compete with these two at the business end of the season.
West Coast have too many injuries. Even if they do get some of their forward line back, are they going to get enough match fitness in time to handle finals intensity?
Collingwood is right up there, but I just don’t feel the chemistry is there this year. The ‘Pies stars are playing well, for instance Dane Swan has been winning 35-50 possessions every week. But their younger players and lesser lights just aren’t standing up.
Another wildcard is Adelaide. They could do it, but I don’t feel they have enough big name players to carry them over the line when under real pressure. Take last week against Geelong as an example of their inexperience.
Geelong are a chance because they have done it before. But, unlike last year, the cries of “too old, too slow” actually apply. With a tough run in, they need all their good players, so no resting them this year.
The final contenders, North and Fremantle are too young. They will be a force in the next few years, but their rookies need more time before they can challenge the big guys.
What do you think, Roarers? Is it a two-horse race for the AFL premiership this year?
Deep Thinker
Guest
Don't write off geelong's top 4 chances. The Pies have a tough draw. If the Cats beat the Eagles next week (possible), and beat St Kilda and Doggies (as expected) and then Sydney at Skilled Stadium (where they have had only 1 loss in 3-4 years albeit to Sydney), then the Pies and Eagles only need to drop 1 more game and they could squeeze in. Based on current form and pedigree, this is a real possibility. Even then, I think they can win from anywhere. They have too much class and knowhow and have planned their season to peak for September.
Deep Thinker
Guest
I like the Cats. The Hawks were pumped last night. They wanted it bad and weren't flat in the first quarter. The Cats just had their game at a level that the Hawks couldn't match. The question for the Cats is can they sustain it over four quarters against the best? They blew a very big lead against a pumped up white hot side, but then again, they got that lead as well. The young guys are playing better, but its the older brigade that will get them through. 9 in a row against the premiership favourite - a clear mental edge there. Put it this way, if they get to the prelim and stay healthy, I'd back them. Also - an out of form Cats only lost to Sydney by a goal after a horrible first quarter at the SCG. Also - only Andrew Mackie has played every game this year. The older guys have been nursed through the year for a genuine September tilt (eg. Joel Corey the past couple of weeks) and to blood some young guys for the future. This, and the toughest overall draw in the league has cost them percentage. But if you look at their list across the ground - it is all class, everywhere you look. Hawkins if he kicks straight with Pods as second fiddle are going to be hard to stop - especially, again because the Hawks don't match up well.
Arm
Guest
Good article. Swans will give it a real shake. As long as their supporters can have more faith and belief in them than the rest of the country.
hawker
Guest
the only player collingwood are missing that would worry me as an opposition supporter is Ball. Didak and Johnson were both good to great players at various points in time but are in their twilight. I think if hawthorn and or collingwood lose this week their spot in the top 4 is vulernable to WC and perhaps Geelong...
Mango Jack
Guest
Some cracking games over the next few weeks will make this clearer, starting this Fri night with Hawks vs Geelong, Swans vs Coll next week, and Swans vs Hawks last round. In each game, form would favour the home team, but recent history suggests otherwise (a big Hawthorn win in Sydney last year the exception). A bit early to make this call, greenfreddy. Anyway, it would be a bit boring otherwise, wouldn't it?
Jano
Guest
Adelaide will finish top and have home finals. It is a 6 horse race at the moment
tonysalerno
Roar Guru
Far from a two horse race mate. The Finals are a totally different ball-game- of you are off your game when it counts you will pay for it. Granted the Hawks look outstanding and if they play there cards right and don't get injuries- they will be there on the last Saturday in September. The Swans are going well but not to the extent of the Hawks and anyone could take their place. Collingwood, Adelaide and West Coast are still contenders and can beat both the Hawks and the Swans on their days. The Hawks have conceded some soft losses this year particularly to Richmond and the like; although they believe those days are behind them- on any given day it can all go wrong; especially on grand final day.
Ads
Guest
I disagree, the premiership is wide open. Hawthorn deserve to be favourites but peaking in July does not win a premiership, as Collingwood found out last year. Anything can happen yet, such as injuries to key players, suspensions and lack of form, or just an unlucky umpriring decision with 10 seconds left on the clock. The Pies have had injuries but with Krakouer, Macaffer, Johnson and Didak returning, bar Keeffe and Ball are nearly back to full strength. My concern with Sydney is them trying to beat Hawthorn or Collingwood at the MCG, so they would have to get a home Preliminary Final to be any chance. My tip is Collingwood over the Hawks in the GF. They have been there the last 2 years and will still be hurting from the loss of 2011.
Tom of Darwin
Guest
I think Blind Freddy would agree that the Hawks are deserved premiership favourites, they have a huge fire power and the experience to win a grand final. The real question is who can challenge? This article and the comments so far rightly point to an open field, with Geelong and Collingwood in the mix as they have been the last two years, Sydney and Adelaide good outside punts based on form and likely top four finishes, and the rest are long shots. I too must apologies to West Coast, but they just haven't shown enough with a depleted list. I think Geelong will struggle as they will most likely have to play an interstate final, and Adelaide at home are a different prospect to Adelaide at Kadina, same for Sydney. Adelaide would much rather play Sydney (due to a very impressive recent history) than Hawthorn or Collingwood, though both those teams are vunerable against Geelong in Melbourne. Sydney will do well at home against everybody other than the Crows, but will have to improve to win the last match at the MCG, something they haven't been able to do for a while. It's all going to come down exactly how the final four are at the end of the minor rounds, some great games in there and some pretty ordinary ones.
Rensford
Guest
Too early to call - some big games coming up that will shake the Top 8 positions. Also, as a Swans member, I lament the lack of a power key forward. we need a Buddy, a Cloke, and Pav to win a G'Final. We may get there, but I dont think it will be our year ..... unless Goodes' come good and becomes that power forward that attracks the focus, allowing Sam, Benny and TDL to pick up easy goals
Brian
Guest
I tend to agree. Adelaide didn't make Finals last year and their top 2 finish will have a lot to do with playing GWS, GC & Port all twice Collingwood have a lot of injuries and were well beaten by Hawthorn West Coast I expect to improve but to win from 3rd to 6th they will travel 3 out of 4 weeks to play Final hardened teams Geelong of course have the pedigree but they have lost too often this year and winning outside the top4 whilst possible is extremelty difficult. I don't think we need to seriously worry about Essnedon, North, Freo, St Kidla or Carlton as far as the flag is concerned. So that leaves Sydney and Hawthorn. I'd back Hawthorn if they meet on GF day but Sydney are more likely to make it that far
Lachlan
Roar Guru
Its definetly not a two horse race. Sure sydney are first but we've got 5 massive games coming up. Hawthorn and collingwood look the goods if i had to pick two teams. I wouldnt rule adelaide out either, they should win their next 5 games and if they gain a home field advantage then they will be hard to beat. North melbourne are in very good form, fremantle have a good run home. Geelong have a very experienced team and their young stars are stepping up. West coast can gain experienced players back at the right point. I wouldnt rule essendon out either they only need one or two wins to find.