We are still weeks away from the end of arguably the tightest season in recent memory, both in ladder position and quality of opposition. However, the landscape for the finals is looking clearer.
If the weekend’s results have shown nothing else, it is that a couple of the early front runners have dropped away and those that might have been written off early on seem to have got their timing right.
The Eagles are limping towards the finals. With a tough run home – Geelong, Collingwood and the Hawks for three of their last four – they could finish anywhere in the bottom half of the eight, or even out if it should results really conspire against them.
Their season could end it relative disaster to where they had hoped early on.
Essendon are in a similar position, with early season form promising what has, unfortunately, not quite been delivered.
Injuries have hurt the Dons, as they have the Eagles, and the result is that the players who have come in as cover are starting to run out of steam. Currently in the eight, competition for the final sports is fierce.
Injuries have also hurt Carlton, but their fall from grace could perhaps be defined more by their own overestimation of where they are as a team and the depth of their playing squad.
Constant speculation from outside the club about the future of the coach also doesn’t help either, but the team hasn’t stood up as much as they could have to back him when they have had the opportunity.
Richmond is also a team that have performed below expectations – to those around them and those internally.
Damien Hardwick was perhaps not quite as forthright as Brett Ratten in his early season predictions for his club, but a stance was clearly taken on a level of performance that has, unfortunately, not been totally backed up by his players.
North Melbourne’s early season optimism looked shaky for a while, but they have come good in recent weeks with a string of performances that are, if not scintillating, at least consistently encouraging. Their best is really good, and is good enough to cover when they play their worst.
The gap between the two is still too big to be a real contender.
Fremantle are another team who looked to be hard up against it early, with criticism from all sides on Ross Lyon and his impact on the side.
What the second half of the season has shown for them is that persistence pays off and Ross does seem to know what he’s talking about.
Should they continue their good form and make the eight, the prospect of a Derby final is a very real one. The fact that the Dockers would be the more confident team should this occur is testament to how far they have come.
The Crows had slipped a little but after escaping with a win against Essendon, are still heading for a top two finish. This, despite their pre-season success, is well above the expectations of most.
Sanderson has managed to keep his team together despite a couple of hiccups during the season that have caused other clubs to falter, a testament to the strength of his game plan and the belief he has instilled in the group.
Hawthorn, with so much form built in the last eight games, hit a hurdle with Friday night’s result. They are still a real contender, the way they rebound this week will say much about them and their prospects.
It is fascinating to see how much that loss to Geelong will affect them. They have the talent to bounce back, no question, but mentally that loss will test them.
Collingwood seem to be doing what they need to do to win games without showing the dominance in form they have in recent years.
No doubt the continued speculation on Travis Cloak’s future has affected both him and the club, as well as injuries to key players. The Pies know what they need to do however, and will be thereabouts when it matters.
Sydney continues to be the frontrunner and, if anything, have widened the gap between themselves and the rest in recent weeks. Renowned for their grit and defence, they have added a speed and ability to score this season which has been exhilarating to watch.
At times this year they have looked unbeatable and there is nothing to suggest this will change anytime soon. With guaranteed home finals coming, it will be hard to stop them marching towards their first grand final appearance since 2006.
Samantha LOng
Guest
I think the Magpies will make the top 8 they are a good team and I think they do well for them selves
Macca
Guest
Franko I am with you on the blues sneaking in, I reckon they will win all 4 the bombers will lose all 4 and Freo could easily lose 3.
NeeDeep
Roar Pro
I would tend to think the Cats & Eagles are pretty safe for 5th / 6th - one more win should see them both stitch up a finals campaign. Effectively, leaving 7th & 8th to be decided. The Bombers have a game against the Roo's, then the Blues, followed by the Tiges and finishing off with Collingwood. Bit of a tough road to get home and you wouldn't expect them to negotiate that lot, without dropping at least one game and more than likely, 2 or even 3. Their is even a chance they could loose the lot, if the wheels continue to come off, like they have over the last several weeks. North have the Bombers this week and Collingwood next week, followed by Freo in Melbourne and then GWS to close out the season. You'd have to think if they could win 2 of those they'd be pretty safe, but 3 would make it a certainty. So, if they can get over Essendon this week and you'd have to pencil them in for the points against GWS, so, they really have to beat either Collingwood or Freo, to make sure. The Barry Crocker's face up to the Crows this week in Adelaide, then have Richmond at home, North away and finish with the Demons in Perth. Don't like their chances this week and reckon they be hard pushed to get the bacon against the Roos. But, they should be OK against the Tigers and Demons at home. St. Kilda has Melbourne this week, a big gmae against Geelong next Friday evening (on the back of the Cat's big trip West) then GWS at Docklands and then Carlton the following week on Sunday morning. They pushed Collingwood and probably should have won the game and their biggest loosing margin all year has been just shy of 6 goals against the Hawks, who were really up and about at that time. As such, they have a massive percentage and if it does come down to that as the decider, they've got everybody else covered. Carlton has Brisbane at home, Essendon at the G, Gold Coast at the Disco and then a massive game against the Saints - all winnable. Having said that, the safe bet would be to allow for 2 or 3 - I reckon the Saints have their measure, so they won't want to be needing a win in round 23 to make it. So, I reckon Essendon will drop out with 11 or 12 wins for the season. North will hang on to 7th with a win this week against Essendon, or if the Bombers do get up, they'll be fighting hard to hang on down the stretch - really big game for both theses teams, this week. Freo should get there, but they have no margin for error - 3 wins makes it a certainty, which means the game against North becomes crucial (unless they can upset the Crows this weekend). St. Kilda & Carlton need to keep winning and with games between the other 3 - Essendon, North & Freo - amongst themselves, the door is still ajar. That may result in the round 23 Sunday morning game being for all the marbles and you would probably give the Saints the edge, based on their superior percentage and they may just grab 8th from Freo, in the shadows of the post - wouldn't that be ironic for Rossy Lyon!
Smithy
Guest
Five from eight on the road this year, and three from four in Melbourne, would suggest Fremantle are far from being 'whipping boys'. They have also turned the corner on performing at the MCG, something which can't be said for Sydney, and to a lesser extent, West Coast.
Yodel
Guest
Not sure Freo are the waste of space this year. Arguably they've the one of the best travelling records for teams in the mix for the finals - five wins from eight interstate games this year. In terms of performance in Melbourne: Freo have played 4 times in Melbourne for 3 wins; West Coast and Sydney 4 each for 2 wins apeice and Adelaide 4 times for 1 win. If we look at the quality of teams won and lost to in Melbourne Freo look about the mark. Freo have beaten St Kilda; Richmond and Melbourne. Lost to Collingwood West Coast won against Bulldogs and Richmond - Lost to Essendon and Collingwood Sydney win Essendon and Carlton - lost Richmond and St Kilda Adelaide win Carlton - lost to Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Geelong.
Franko
Guest
Do the Bailey ladder predictor on the AFL website and the Blues could sneak in, they need a couple decent wins of course to boost percentage. At the moment it is most likely Fremantle. But they will be a waste of space playing finals in Melbourne because they are whipping boys and don't travel well.