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Clubs outside AFL's top four won't make it

Roar Guru
4th September, 2012
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Roar Guru
4th September, 2012
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With the AFL finals on us once again, the preverbal chatter around the water-cooler on how teams will fare has commenced.

This year the belief that a team can win the flag from outside the top four seems to have gathered far more momentum amongst commentators, the media and fans alike.

Perhaps this is down to the overall evenness of the top eight in terms of wins and losses, with just three games separating first from eight.

It could also be due to the fact that the in-form reigning premiers Geelong occupy sixth position, and there are question marks around top-four teams Adelaide, Sydney and Collingwood.

However, this speculation ignores history. The last team to win the premiership from outside the top four was Adelaide way back in 1998.

The reigning premiers fought back from a thumping loss in the first week of the finals to win back-to-back titles. However, this was achieved under a different finals format.

Since the current finals format was introduced back in 2000, no side that has finished the regular season outside the top four has reached the grand final, let alone won the flag.

In fact, even reaching the preliminary final has been a rare occurrence. Since 2000 only twice has a team outside the top four reached the preliminary final in that year.

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The first was back in 2001 when Hawthorn recaptured their early season form to defeat Port Adelaide (in later years branded ‘chokers’) at the then Football Park by three points.

The second was in 2007 when Collingwood defeated a West Coast side minus Chris Judd, Ben Cousins and Daniel Kerr in extra-time at Subiaco.

There have been several other matches over the years where the outside team has been in a dominant position (Geelong in 2005, Adelaide in 2009, Sydney in 2010) but have been overrun.

I will leave to others to offer their explanations for these figures, but if history is anything to go by, it will be Hawthorn, Adelaide, Sydney and Collingwood that will make it through to the preliminary finals.

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