It’s now official. Sydney and Hawthorn will contest the 2012 AFL Grand Final. But for all those who pencilled it in as a certainty last night, it could have very nearly been a different story.
This evening, a young Adelaide outfit took it right up to the Hawks, who had to grind out an incredibly hard-fought five point win.
The Crows led at quarter and half time. Kurt Tippett and Taylor Walker, with four goals each, simply dominated Ryan Schoenmakers and Josh Gibson.
Patrick Dangerfield declared himself as a star of the big stage with a massive 11-disposal final quarter that turned the game on its head.
Scott Thompson had 31 disposals, Bernie Vince had six clearances and five inside 50s, Dangerfield finished with a game-high nine clearances.
The Hawks, it must be pointed out, kicked 13 goals and a disappointing 18 behinds, keeping Adelaide’s impossible dream alive.
But the upset was not to be, despite a dramatic finish.
In the final six minutes, an overturned free kick put Adelaide within five, which was followed by a quick goal to put them in front, which was followed by a quick Cyril Rioli response, which was followed by a Buddy Franklin response, which was followed by another Taylor Walker goal and a hectic final 16 seconds.
Yes, it was chaotic. And yes, it could’ve definitely gone either way.
So if you’re a Hawthorn fan – or player – thank your lucky stars. That is what they call a great escape.
But maybe, just maybe, it’s for the best.
History says dominant sides that have the favouritism thrown upon them by all are prone to shock results. Perhaps it’s complacency, perhaps it’s believing one’s own hype, but Collingwood in 2010 had to draw a Grand Final before they could put away St Kilda in the manner many expected them to.
Before that, Geelong in 2007 had a “great escape” of their own in a preliminary final against Collingwood. The next week they won in the biggest Grand Final victory of all time.
And then there’s Geelong in 2008, which showed what it can be like when a side’s bubble isn’t given a timely burst.
Something tells me tonight’s game was exactly what Hawthorn needed. Getting tonight out the way will ensure their focus is 100% where it should be over the next seven days. They’ll be taking nothing for granted now.
They’ll accept it as an uncharacteristic performance – the last time Hawthorn kicked more behinds than goals was in Round 12 – but they’ll also appreciate that it’s highlighted areas they need to work on that perhaps wouldn’t otherwise have been highlighted.
In terms of positives from tonight, Brad Sewell’s 28 disposals at 82% efficiency – with seven clearances and six inside 50s – would have to be up there.
Sam Mitchell had 29 touches, six tackles, seven clearances and nine inside 50s.
Franklin eventually worked his way into the game to finish with three goals, while forward partner Rioli was … dare I say it … special.
For all that, the Sydney Swans haven’t done a lot wrong. While the Hawks will probably hang on to favouritism, they shouldn’t be underestimated in any way.
Sydney have a Ben Rutten-type in Ted Richards who could silence Buddy for long periods once again. Indeed, they have the best defence in the competition.
In the midfield there’s Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Jarrad McVeigh, Ryan O’Keefe and Lewis Jetta, among others, and up forward Adam Goodes has been known to cause Hawthorn headaches.
But if we are to look solely at tonight’s game and what it means, I’d say it’s up there with the best possible outcomes for Hawthorn.
Surely it’s better to get caught off guard in a prelim than on the biggest stage of all.
Bayman
Guest
onside, ...and if your auntie had balls she'd be your uncle! Buddy always needs ten shots to kick five so no surprise there. If you think the Hawks don't really need to improve your kidding yourself. Buddy will still miss next week - probably - and the surprise will be if he does not. Schoenmakers is a liability against a strong body and Gibson is short for a key defender. What you do have going for you is the ability of Mitchell and Burgoyne to distribute the ball cleanly. That and the ability of Lewis and Sewell to compete in the pack. Mind you, that's an area where the Swans are pretty good too so it's probably back to ball use. Can Mitchell, Burgoyne and Rioli set the next player up better than Jack, Kennedy, O'Keefe, Goodes etc. Looking forward to it. By the way, you can talk all you like about the Hawks having more shots than the Crows but, here's that uncle again, if Rutten marks the ball instead of dropping it and running past it, the Crows win. If Vince actually hits Rutten instead of putting it over his head to Rioli they win by a bit more and if Callinan hits Dangerfield instead of bouncing it in front of him they win by more still - and the scoring shot differential is a bit less and basically meaningless. And all of those three events should have happened as planned. It wasn't great play by the Hawks but poor play by Adelaide which gifted the Hawks two goals and prevented themselves scoring another. That's what made the difference. The Crows cannot control how Buddy might kick for goal but they can control their own ball distribution and their ability to catch it when there's no body contact. While the umpiring may have been poor from an Adelaide perspective it's not what really won or lost the game. Mind you, that throw decision was pretty ordinary since the umpire obviously guessed from 100 metres away. He didn't throw it therefore the umpire could not have seen it. The worry was that Petrenko had marked the ball near the fifty metre line and had to give it back. Who knows how that might have turned out? Yet another 'uncle' situation. The main difference between the two Prelims is that the Hawks were always in a contest to win and might have lost while the Swans never looked like losing. What that might mean we'll all find out on Saturday.
Bayman
Guest
I confess that, as a Crows fan, I too was a little agitated at the time Walker took to actually kick the ball. It seemed there was about 35 seconds to go when he marked it and only 16 seconds left after the goal was scored. As for Thompson kicking backwards it only confirmed to me he's not the best decision maker. Great ball getter, poor ball distributor. I was watching Mitchell all night with envy.
Matt F
Roar Guru
Very true. The Hawks dominated general play. Actually if both the Swans and Hawks kicked somewhat accurately both prelims would have been over a lot sooner
AdamH
Guest
As a lifelong Hawks fan, sadly I too have to agree with the general tone of dismay with the umpiring on Saturday night. Although the Hawks have been the dominant team in the second half of the season; unsubtly biased umpiring took a massive shine off an epic win and will undoubtedly take a little gloss off our potential premiership. I was at the game, and as a Victorian, and Hawk's fan felt embarrassed at the atrocious inconsistency, and game changing decisions made by the umpires favouring the home side. What irritates me most is that a win under fair circumstances could have delivered the boys huge confidence going into the GF. Now I worry that they too know that the umpires helped nudge them over the line, toward a prize that form suggests should be theirs, but probably would have been snatched by Adelaide had the field been a little less biased in their direction.
hawker
Guest
kick straighter and hold their marks.. Roughead dropped 3-4 sitters in the first half that would've resulted in shots at goal.
Australian Rules
Guest
Nail on head Brew. Funnily, despite apparently not liking the game, K seems to talk about it a whole lot...even dropping Aust Footy references randomly into soccer threads...but then complaining when "non-soccer" people dare to comment on soccer stories. Oh well, horses for courses I suppose.
Australian Rules
Guest
"What on earth made people think it would be anything other than a close game?" langou, leading into the prelim, the Hawks had beaten Syd, WCE, Coll and had thumped the Crows in Rd 3 by 56 points. Adelaide, on the other hand, had arguably the easiest draw in AFL history and finished the season by losing to Brisbane, beating Melb & the Suns - got flogged by Sydney and then beat Freo. Yes, it was 1 vs 2 and should always have been a close game, but the Hawks were very wasteful and the Crows played out of their skins. A just result for the GF.
Stewie
Guest
I don't think either team will suffer from complacency. Sydney know that they are underdogs (just the way they/we like it), and Hawks had a very narrow escape against the Crows. Should be a cracker!
Richo
Guest
and Thomson kicking the ball backwards with 30 seconds to go. WTF?
Richo
Guest
Shoenmakers ia chump pure and simple. Towelled up in the prelim, towelled up by Cloke and Hawkins. The Hawthorn side carries him big time.
Mango Jack
Guest
First time I saw him I thought Lote Tuquiri had secrectly switched codes. Generally hate Collingwood, but you've gotta love Harry!
Mango Jack
Guest
I agree, but in their defence, they are under enormous pressure. As for Horne and McCabe, it seems their brief is to get over the advantage line and set up the next phase. Problem is, the mates up front don't commit. But this is all for a different thread....
BigAl
Guest
Harry O'Brien ! - probably my favourite player this year - can't recall a backman that has played with his dash and daring.. Maybe it's his calmness under pressure; his hair; his flair and his playing style, yet having a name like . . . Harry O'Brien ??
Harry
Guest
Very obvious to see at the ground where you could see few Collingwoood players running hard off the ball or hitting contested possessions with strong intent. Only Harry O'Brien of the Pies seemed to bring the necessary go-forward and determination to break the line (or whatever the AFl expression is, I'm sure you get my meaning). Should add that Adam Goodes is a lovely footballer to watch. Poise, pace and skill.
Harry
Guest
Both sides have a lot of improvement left in their shots on goal, astonishes me how inaccurate many are in AFL. Much like rugby union, where we have guys playing centre in test team (Rob Horne, Pat McCabe) who are fair dinkum incapable of drawing a man and passing accurately at speed..
Mango Jack
Guest
Didn't stop them beating the Hawks in Launceston, or nearly winning in Sydney a few weeks ago. On aggregate, the Swans have out-pointed Hawthorn in their 2 encounters this year. I think this will be very close. Hawthorn seem to have learnt how to win the close games now, though, so I'm tipping Hawks by 8 points.
Nathan of Perth
Roar Rookie
I don't think Hawthorn has "had their shocker". I think that was just Hawthorn. They have NOT been as far ahead of the pack this year as many pundits will have you believe.
Brewski
Guest
@ Harry, Collingwood appeared flat from the get go, maybe the week had drained them, maybe they were just shot, but they had no run, if you don't have any you can't really play through the middle, which is the quickest way home. Dissapointing by them, but the Swans play a very close checking game, i hope they win next week, best of a bad bunch IMO.
Brewski
Guest
Maybe his son, all Kaceys posts are eerily similar. i use to like footy, ...and then the umpires..... i used to like footy and then the AFL ..... i used to like football and then the WC and and Andrew Demetriou ..... i used to go to the footy, and then hot dog prices etc etc etc .
Harry
Guest
Final inexpert point - the Hawks have had their shocker and will win the GF fairly comfortably - the Swans don't have the tall forwards necessary to trouble them, and their best defender is in doubt. Hope its a good close game though.