There’s always conjecture about when the Spring Carnival officially begins but I believe Saturday’s Turnbull meeting is when the racing gets serious.
Randwick’s bumper Super Saturday program, underlined by four Group Ones, is the last day of Group racing in Sydney for several weeks and signifies the change of focus from Sydney to Melbourne racing.
So, with the Melbourne Cup only five weeks away it’s time to jump off the fence and make some declarations for the spring.
The last three Spring Carnivals unearthed three future champions – So You Think (who won the Cox Plate in 2009), Black Caviar (who demolished the Patinack Classic field in 2010) and Atlantic Jewel (who was brilliant in the Thousand Guineas and Wakeful last season).
And in 2012, another superstar will emerge. But unlike So You Think, Black Caviar and Atlantic Jewel, Pierro will dominate the Carnival.
The undefeated Gai Waterhouse-trained colt will claim three Group Ones. Pierro will win the Caulfield Guineas by five lengths, in what I believe will be one of the most dominant performances in the history of the race.
As far as I can tell, no horse has won the Caulfield Guineas by over three lengths since the Second World War, so Pierro’s victory will rank as the greatest in modern times.
Pierro will then head to Moonee Valley for the Cox Plate where he will become the 20th three-year-old to win the championship. But stablemate More Joyous will ensure the margin isn’t spectacular.
The victory will be Gai Waterhouse’s first in the race, a feat made even more special because she will saddle-up the second (More Joyous) and fourth (Proisir) placed horses.
Lloyd Williams’ Green Moon will firm into Melbourne Cup favouritism with an exciting third-place finish. But he will struggle to run a strong two miles on the first Tuesday in November.
Pierro will back-up in the LKS Mackinnon and take his perfect record to 11 with a commanding victory on Derby Day.
Interestingly, it will be Waterhouse’s fifth win in the race with each of those occurring in even years – 1996 (All Our Mob), 2004 (Grand Armee), 2006 (Desert War), 2008 (Theseo) and 2012 (Pierro).
With victory, Pierro will become the first three-year old since 2003 and only the third since 1948 to win the Mackinnon.
If Pierro was nominated for the VRC Derby I would’ve happily declared him the winner but neither he nor stablemate Proisir are entered in the 2500m classic.
We could see this year’s Derby quinella line-up on Saturday at Randwick in the Spring Champion Stakes with Honorius and It’s A Dundeel showing ominous staying quality.
I’m pretty sure It’s A Dundeel is going to develop into a quality stayer next season but I’m not as certain about his Derby chances.
The VRC Derby is such a long race so early in the three-year old season and often throws up a surprise result so my confidence, in tipping the early Derby favourite to win the race, is somewhat tempered.
But, the last three VRC Derby winners came through the Spring Champion, and all are New Zealand bred horses trained by New Zealand nationals, so that bodes well for It’s A Dundeel, who fits the description nicely.
I’m saying the Caulfield Cup is going to be won by an Australasian-trained horse for the 132nd time in its 134-year history.
And I’m pretty sure that horse, whoever it maybe, will be running somewhere, in some race, on Saturday.
For whatever reason, internationals – who have registered one win, one second and a third in the last ten Caulfield Cups – don’t tend to perform well in the 2400m handicap.
Even though, this year’s Caulfield Cup could boast the strongest overseas contingent in its history, I’m sticking with the locals.
I think Southern Speed can go back-to-back in the feature. She’s in good form this preparation and seems to be relatively well weighted with 54.5kgs. Her main danger could be the Italian import Voila Ici whose strength at the distance (as a winner over 2800m) gives him a slight advantage over the South Australian mare.
I’m also a big fan of Moudre and Zurella. Moudre has always promised to win a big handicap and after his brilliant first-up return a month ago, will be worth watching in Saturday’s Turnbull.
New Zealand mare Zurella was disappointing in the Naturalism a fortnight back but pulled up with respiratory problems. Horses can quickly return to their best after such issues, so I’m not giving up on the 2012 New Zealand Oaks runner-up.
I think an international will run a place in the race and I’ve been all over Gatewood since Royal Ascot.
John Gosden may well be the most in-form trainer in the world at the moment and he is likely to give the Australian-owned five-year-old a lead-up in Saturday week’s Herbert Power, which is a massive positive as far as I’m concerned.
The only query with Gatewood is that he isn’t assured of a start in the Group One yet.
I’m not prepared to state my thoughts on who will win the Melbourne Cup because it’s way too early in the spring for that but I’m confident the race will be heading overseas for the third-consecutive year.
I gave Mount Athos a massive push in a July article but I’m not as confident in October as I was in the winter.
While Luca Cumani got enough out the English summer to guarantee Mount Athos a start in the Melbourne Cup, the horse hates the wet, won’t be having a lead-up run in Melbourne (no horse has won the Cup first-up since 1993) and will be steered by English jockey Ryan Moore, who has never ridden in Australia before.
All these things are negatives (or at least queries), so as the Cup favourite, Mount Athos has enough against him. But at least he’ll be in the field and I certainly won’t be complaining if he is victorious because I backed him to win the race three months ago.
If an Australian-trained galloper is to figure in the finish it could be the imported Mourayan who was my tip last year. Importantly, he’s returned in better order this season and is on track once again.
I’m also warming to Exceptionally, who is racing with great zest. She’ll require a lot of luck to make the field but I hope she does because her presence will be felt.
If Exceptionally isn’t there, I’ll be cheering for More Joyous. She’ll have to carry 56 kilos to victory (which is a massive impost for a horse that has only won once at a distance longer than 1600m) but I’ve got a feeling MJ will line-up in the race.
But can More Joyous win?
Well, she wouldn’t be the first champion mare to defy history in the Melbourne Cup.
Calum
Guest
Hi Justin, Your article caught my eye on a google search when I looked up Gatewood and it's a really good read. I'm a racing fan from the UK and have had Gatewood for the race for ages even though he is not guaranteed a run yet. He is well handicapped to go close and is improving all the time. Plus it will be interesting to see how well Masterstroke runs in the Arc tomorrow, the horse that just got the better of him last time in France Meanwhile the form of Mount Athos has stacked up seriously well this summer and he is improving rapidly. Any rain is a major worry though as he needs it fast but a big field and trip are ideal and he's in great hands with Luca Cumani. Also I really wouldn't worry about Ryan Moore riding. He's the best jockey in the UK at the moment and I'm not alone when I say that. Both though look to have really strong chances of finally taking the Cup for the UK (which I am hoping of course) :)
Muelboy
Roar Rookie
Justin you are braver than me writing about your predictions this far out. I hope you are going to take advantage by loading up on the early markets with the bookies. Pierro could be the horse that defines the spring, the one that elevates himself above all the feature winners. We will latch onto him if he does because he's a home bred. I had a good look at him at Moonee Valley, he is a lovely type but to my eye looks more of a middle distance stayer, his early wins over sprint trips have been won more on natural ability. Rekindled Interest is my each way special tomorrow at $12.00 blinkers on should improve especially now D Oliver has had a ride on him. Mosheen has the class but in my opinion still a run away (see story on The Roar) Soft Sand has an amazing turn of foot, Colin Little is keen to get her up in trip she might be a smoky for the Matriarch.
sheek
Guest
Scuba, I'm with you. I abhor the reduction in value & distance & numeracy of distance races. I've mentioned this before to Justin. I actually think the spolution is to do what the AJC has done - move the Derby/Oaks to the autumn, & replace them with Spring Champion races for colts/geldings & fillies respesctively. There is still an enormous amount of good races at the Melbourne Spring Carnival, & a couple of 2000m races for 3yo's would attract a lot of interest. Then having the Vic Derby & Vic Oaks in the autumn as a precursor to the Australian Derby & Australian Oaks would also work. Besides, it would really boost the autumn carnival while barely troubling the spring carnival, especially with the 2000m replacements.
Bondy.
Guest
Regardless they'll keep Pierro away from the cups next year I dont know if he'd run a genuine mile and a half in open company. I think Weekend Hustler gave them a touch up in the guienas one year I think he won by three to four lengths. I backed" its a done deal "last start i'm laying it tomorrow.I'd be laying more joyous in the plate as well, wont win.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Fair enough Alfred but having heard Singo talk about MJ in the MC I think it's a big chance. (And Gai has been pretty coy about it too). And in my opinion I could see MJ winning it. But I can't see SB winning it. To be honest, I can't see SB winning a Lexus right now. If MJ entered the MC the only query would be the distance. We know she can carry weight, she's never looked better and hasn't lost all year. Imo she would be the best horse in the field by some way, and as an eight (or possibly by then ten) time G1 winner, understandably so. I'm not certain she would run well but she's worthy of her spot and a crack. I hope they have a go at it.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Last year Gai was too reluctant to enter her in the Mckinnon and opted for the Myer instead. There's a huge difference between the two in terms of class but the 400m difference ain't that big. Still she went to the lesser of the two distances so she's pretty sure 2000m is her limit.
Alfred Chan
Expert
If Singo want's an MC this year it will be with Strawberry Boy via the Lexus. More Joyous is a wonderful mare but I can't see her running 3200m.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Thanks for the comment sheek. I wouldn't say she's been set for it but I think Gai's got the MC in the back of her mind. The Derby is an interesting one. A lot of trainers don't like the starting position and distance. I think a 2200m Derby would please plenty of them but it would be the end of a tradition. I don't a Derby has ever run at distance under 2400m in Australia. But it does make a bit of sense.
Justin Cinque
Expert
:More Joyous in the Melbourne Cup? If this happens, i’ll walk naked to Melbourne and watch the race live. And nude." Can I hold you to this Will? I reckon it's a 50/50 chance. Singo wants to win the Cup badly and he's got a champion mare in form. She could be there.
Justin Cinque
Expert
Thanks for the comment Sh00ter. You shouldn't give up on Mount Athos, he's a massive chance but I think he's found his right price (or maybe is a bit of unders) now. The counter-points you raise and quite valid. It will be interesting to see how he fares. I think Luca's never had a better suited horse personally. Yes, The Roar Challenge league code is 723343. It closes on Saturday morning and is free to enter. Should be plenty of fun.
Andrew C (waikato)
Guest
So Will, what happens when you want to go for a pee and the underground toilets flood as in 2007? Can you swim or will you just 'bare' it all ?? I think DUNDEEL (or It's A Dundeel as he's known over there ) will win the VRC Derby. I haven't looked at the Caulfield or Melbourne Cup chances yet. Like Sh00ter, I feel GREEN TUNE is a very fast stayer and I might just start nibbling at him soonish for the Melb Cup!!
simonjzw
Roar Pro
Scuba I think the main issue with the VRC Derby distance is the helter skelter charge to the first corner with "greenish" horses. It's their welfare that's the major concern. In that respect it's not unlike the Golden Slipper. And that may be why we don't see many Deraby winners go on with it. In full agreement with the need for more staying races though. The public love to watch the horses run past them twice.
Scuba
Guest
One Australian-trained horse who won't be winning is Efficient - the old boy was retired this morning. Sad we rarely got to see his best with all his issues. sheek, can't agree about reducing the distance of the Derby - racing officialdom is already trying to kill staying events in this country - we don't need another one to go. What is really needed at the moment is for a horse to win the Derby and then really go on with it and become a top-liner as an older horse (think Lion Tamer could have been that horse if he hadn't met such a premature end) - too many in recent years haven't gone on.
sheek
Guest
Justin, Great stuff, love your writing. Is More Joyous really being set for the MC? Saintly & Comic Court defied their breeding to win the big one, & Gunsynd pinched a 3rd against breeding, & I'm sure there are others. But I would bet comfortably against More Joyous. I think Singo's had enough success! But as one of those who keeps pumping for the Golden Slipper to replace the MC, maybe he needs to win the MC to realise its true importance? The VRC Derby distance is a constant thorn, isn't it? There are I guess two options. Move the Derby to the autumn (as did the AJC Derby) & replace it with a Spring Champion 2000m race (again, as with AJC). Or reduce the distance of the Vic Derby. Funny how you have the Derby & Oaks at 2400/2500m for 3yos & 2000 Gns & 1000 Gns also for 3yos, & you used to bring the sexes together over 2800m, but there is no traditional 2000m race for 3yo c,g & fs. Except the AJC Spring champion from the top of my head. I reckon Flemington can be made to accommodate 2200m races near the river shute (past the winning post on the right). Both the Vic Derby in the spring & the Australian Cup in the autumn could be run over 2200m (Sorry, it's a little hobby horse of mine, this suggestion).
Scuba
Guest
Pretty good analysis Justin (except that Proisir wouldn't run 4th in the Cox Plate if he started now). Think you've got the wrong horse from the right country for the CC - with Americain now likely to head there, can't see Dunaden beating him home at the weights. For the Melbourne Cup, there's only one trainer who knows about giving horses their first start in Australia and winning the Cup, and his name isn't Luca Cumani - so difficult flight notwithstanding I'll pick Galileo's Choice.
Will Sinclair
Guest
Great piece, yet again Justin. I love this time of year, the madness of the footy is over and we can turn our attention to some proper sport! Not sure about this though mate: "If Exceptionally isn’t there, I’ll be cheering for More Joyous. She’ll have to carry 56 kilos to victory (which is a massive impost for a horse that has only won once at a distance longer than 1600m) but I’ve got a feeling MJ will line-up in the race." More Joyous in the Melbourne Cup? If this happens, i'll walk naked to Melbourne and watch the race live. And nude.
Sh00ter
Roar Pro
Hi Justin, Great thoughts, insight and analysis. JC wrote "this year’s Caulfield Cup could boast the strongest overseas contingent in its history". This is the sort of fact that could swing the race to an international. As far as I am concerned Dunaden is one of the best 2400m horses in the world, certainly the best available at Caulfield in just over a fortnight. There are a few knocks on him, first time at Caulfield, top weight, foot issue but champions can overcome adversity to win. C. Williams takes the ride, has won on him twice and he believes a firm flat track like Caulfield suits him nicely. It will be a strong race though and I think his main dangers are the mares Lights of Heaven (prematurely last years early favourite) and Southern Speed. I'm not prepared to give up on Mount Athos yet but the knocks you raise are a worry. However if an experienced Australian visitor like Luca thinks he should be fresh into the race with R. Moore aboard, I'll back him in. Luca is more comfortable with a light weight rider he knows than one he doesn't. Technically internationals have won at their first Australian runs in the last two Geelong Cups (visitor Mosse on Americain), so it may not be long before that occurs in the Cup. He set the horse for the race in May. I'm also not prepared to say Green Moon won't run out the 3200m, Lloyd's horses usually run any distance he sets them for. Based on his 2000-2500m form I have backed Mourayan at the $51 still on offer but there is also a little query on the two miles for him. Ibicenco is all the rage among astute racing journalists who have reported him to be flogging other track workers. If he gets a run I will be on him too. You're spot on with Pierro, I wonder if he could be a late entry for the Derby? Looking back at the previous winners of the Guineas, I think he will be the best since Mahogany in 1993 or his father Lonhro in 2001. Something fairly dramatic would have to go wrong for him not to win the Cox Plate. Ocean Park looks like he will run a bold race along with More Joyous and Manighar who is being set to peak for the Cox and Cup. I'll be cheering for Zurella this week as she is in my Cups-Plate trebles but I fear she will find some of these hardened Flemington horses a bit too good on Saturday. Thanks for the tip on Honorius I have added him to my Star Stable! Have you set up a league for Roarers?