Much has been written recently about how many clubs are in the running for Chris Dawes’ services. The Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, even Brisbane are rumoured to be bidding for the young forward.
But, as a Collingwood supporter and AFL fan, I can’t help wondering why Dawes wants to leave. More importantly, I don’t understand why Collingwood aren’t fighting tooth and nail to keep him.
Perhaps they are and I’m not seeing it but I get the sense that, if the deal can be done, they’ll do it.
Dawes played admirably through 2010 and 2011 with Leigh Brown playing the utility ruck/forward roll. Admittedly, the experiment of playing Dawes through the ruck this year failed in more than one sense.
First, he can’t play both. He’s a forward only. Second, Travis Cloke had to play much deeper and be more focal, a concept he seemed to struggle with for much of the season.
With Quinten Lynch secured, I fully expected Dawes to stay and move back to his old position of second forward option. Lynch would take over the utility ruck roll, which he is much better at than Dawes, and that would be that.
If Dawes felt so threatened by a Brown-type player, why was this not made clear during or after the 2010 or 2011 campaigns? Dawes is a young guy and has a bright future in football ahead of him.
Lynch is ageing but is a good fit for Collingwood right now, as he is still playing some decent footy and Collingwood should be able to milk the last couple of good years out of him.
If you combined the two, you would have a very similar situation to what Collingwood had back in 2010-11, years where they played in three grand finals going 1-1-1.
Lynch would play the pinch-hit ruckman, while Jolly was resting on the bench and then would fill in down back or up forward when needed. This would allow Dawes to push deeper to the goal square and allow Cloke to roam further up the ground that he put to such great use during those years.
It would also mean that Collingwood would give Cloke more spells on the bench when needed.
The other issue for Dawes to consider is that he will be leaving a club that has at least two more years of contending for a premiership (possibly and hopefully more) for a club that is unlikely to win one in the next 2-3 years.
Certainly Melbourne is still a long way from playing finals, let alone winning a flag. The Bulldogs aren’t much better. Brisbane may play finals next year if they continue to improve but are unlikely to contend for a flag for a couple of years as well.
Hence, I’m unsure why Dawes is so keen to move. Surely the temptation of a premiership in the near-future (which would boost his value to other clubs anyway) far outweighs any better contract he’s going to get from a rival club.
Moreover, if he really feels threatened by Lynch, perhaps the club does not believe he is as strong, or as highly-valued, as he is perceived in the market?
Which begs the question: why would Dawes go?
hamleyn
Roar Guru
Good point. I didn't actually consider Jackson Paine. He's got a bit of work to do yet but he could develop into a pretty good prospect in the next 2 years.
BQ
Guest
Dogs won't trade pick 6 and definitely not for Dawes, even with the Pies throwing in a top 20 pick. Given the Dogs missed out on trading into the mini draft I think they'd be best to use picks 5 & 6 to draft in elite young talent rather than grab a mid level tall. I think part of the drag out has been due to the Dees trading away pick 13 while the Pies were waiting for Dawes to choose his preferred destiniation. I get the feeling that the Pies had an expectation that pick 13 would be part of the deal so it might have been part of initial talks. I doubt it would have been a straight swap and believe that there would have been some more swapping of draft picks (i.e. upgrading picks). For Pick 20 and Stef Martin I think the Pies would have to throw something more in the pot. Given what Wellingham went for I'm thinking the Pies will get more than just pick 20. I'd say this is because he's contracted, is a competitive KPF which is a rare commodity, and there are a few clubs lining up to get him. Its the last reason that makes me think the Pies will get more than what Dawes is worth. That and talls tend to cost more than smalls. Looking at Collingwood's past trades in recent years shows they would think so. * In: pick 8 and "steak knives" (Medhurst), out: Tarrant in 2006 - Too far back to reliably back my memory, but statistically he had a fairly similiar season to the previous one. * In: Wood, out: pick 14 in 2007 - obviously a dud trade, but I'd say the club paid overs out of desperation to get a ruck. Well done Lions, shame you wasted it * In: Jolly, out: pick 14 & 46 in 2009 - got lucky for someone of Jolly's ability to be available. A win-win trade. * In: Ceglar and Krakouer, out: pick 25 in 2010 - Is Ceglar the steak knives, a genuine equal half, or the key part of the trade? Initially I'd say Ceglar is a bonus, but from memory the club always had him in mind. * In: Tarrant, out: picks 44 & 56 in 2010 If Dawes goes in a straight swap for draft picks then it makes for an interesting comparison to Wellingham who has been traded for the Eagles first round pick. Wellingham had the better season and is a more proven consistent performer versus Dawes, a KPF that has shown he can compete at AFL, but is coming off a bad year. Could show us just much extra value clubs see in a tall over a small.
Bill Larkin
Guest
The Dogs could conceivably offer pick 6. As for pick 20 being overs, Dawes will get the value put on him by the market. If the Dogs are disparate for a key forward, and trades pick 6, it doesn't matter what fans think he's worth.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
"Pick 20 might not be enough with better offers available from other clubs" Like what offers ? IMO pick 20 is overs for Dawes.
Andrew A
Guest
Pick 20 might not be enough with better offers available from other clubs. The Pies might suggest a player such as Stefan Martin and pick 20 or 26 in exchange for Dawes. Another possibility is exchanging Dawes and pick 17 for pick 4. Melbourne were considering using pick 4 for Dawes and Wellingham, so Dawes and the pick received for Wellingham would be fair. I'd prefer to see Dawes stay and recapture his marking ability. The Pies will have to fast track Paine into becoming a regular senior player without Dawes. The Q stick will perform the "Leigh Brown" role that Dawes had to fill in this year, which left a gap up forward when Dawes was on the ball.
Bill Larkin
Guest
Melbourne's pick 20 seems a fair swap for Dawes, and I believe Collingwood is only posturing by claiming it wants more. I expect the deal to be done tomorrow.
TC
Guest
Are there Collingwood fans in Ivanhoe? TC
Ivanhoe Magpies
Guest
the real conundrum is whether the true form of Dawes is that of 2010 or 2012. Clearly Neld & others thinks it is the former with their proposal to pay first rounders. The Pies on the other hand partly through injury had a totally disfunctioning forward line in 2012. If Dawes stays then he gets played at the expense of Jackson Paine who I think Bucks probably honestly said to Dawes is challenging for his position. He dropped him once. Dawes is worried as there is nothing worse than playing in the magoos. He wants more time in the spotlight and he has a better chance at the Dees to shine. The pies with options are thinking a trade now might give us a good 10 year player and a player like Clinton Young. In 2 years time Dawes currency might be nil and he walks as a free agent. The fallback position for the pies is the Sydney O'Keeffe story as without a fair trade he didnt go to the hawks 2 years ago. He accepted his situation and became a even better player.
Gordon Smith
Guest
It is interesting to look at coach's that have taken over successful teams - It seems to me that successful teams coach themselves for the first year as they are mature and well drilled. Examples Alan Joyce - took over Hawthorn and won premiership Gary Ayres - took over Geelong after they played in a premiership - got them into grand final then faded Chris Scott - we know the story - this year was more difficult It will be interesting as the player group changes if Buckley vcan produce the structure and discipline of Malthouse - suspect the second year tells more of a story than the first year taking over an existing organised outfit
Andrew A
Guest
Very true. I hope Nathan Buckley turns out to be a better coach than Tony Shaw.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Afl, And its not like Collingwood hasnt made the mistake of sacking a premiership-winning supercoach for a club favorite son before ...
Dubsanco
Guest
Don't get me wrong - still love to see him at the pies. But when he comes out and says he wants to go, I reckon the pies will let him go. Just thinking about the where to now's.
hamleyn
Roar Guru
I'm not sure the argument of him needing to make more money for life after footy applies to Dawes. He's doing Law at Monash University after all. To do that, you need to be pretty smart. Some valid points made by all above but I stick by my statements. Also, Dubsanco, I wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch. He may have requested a trade to Melbourne, but unless they get a deal done, he won't be going anywhere. He's still contracted to Collingwood for 2 years, and the Pies would have to de-list him and he'd need to nominate for the national draft if he wants to move somewhere.
afl
Guest
Dawes is going to another club to make bigger money. I agree some of the remarks above that Dawes has won a premiership and now needs to worry about career after football. As mentioned by many people that footballers have a 10 year period where they can make good money from their craft and then have to retire with little skill in areas other than football, so they need as much time and money to get used to life after football as they can get. Dawes doesn't seem to be wanted by Collingwood and should go to the Dees. On another topic entirely, mick Malthouse left Nathan Buckley with a premiership team that is still the best in the afl in my opinion. Great players don't always make great coaches and i think nathan buckley is not a great coach.
Dubsanco
Guest
Unfortunately it looks like he's gone. I agree - I thought Bucks and co looked at Lynch of a way back to the tried and proven model. The question now is who steps up as the new big forward - Paine, Witts or Ceglar? I'm backing Witts as part of a three man rotating ruck/forward combo.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
"Surely the temptation of a premiership in the near-future (which would boost his value to other clubs anyway) far outweighs any better contract he’s going to get from a rival club." An extra premiership wont pay bills after he retires. He's a professional, and clearly isnt one of Collingwood's must-keep A-listers as they just hired his replacement. The odds of Collingwood leaving him out of their first 22 after he re-signs are 100% is Collingwood sees that as the best way to win a premiership.
Andrew A
Guest
Good article. It is surprising that Dawes would feel his position in the side would be threatened by the arrival of Lynch. It may be simply a money issue. Football careers are short and Dawes accepted less at Collingwood a couple of years ago than he could have received elsewhere. With his marking ability falling away after suffering the knuckle injury in 2011, he possibly regrets signing for less and wants more money while he can get it. He'll have trouble keeping his spot in any side if his inability to mark continues.
mwm
Roar Pro
Didn't he already win a premiership in 2010 with Collingwood? If he did he probably feels the team isn't a genuine shot anymore and now is the time to actually make some money out of the game rather than sacrifice some cash for the lure of playing in another premiership, much like the Geelong stars did (Ablett the exception of course). Also Buckley probably feels he isn't part of his game style/plan that he wants the Pies to play. He might want to have a quicker more nimble forward line in the same mold as their midfield and Dawes might of been seen as one to many big men. Jolly can play as a second forward just as well as he can play first choice ruckmen with Lynch playing the back up ruckmen role. Buckley probably thought that combo would work better then a rotating Cloke/Dawes/Jolly/Lynch system. You never really do know the minds of coaches and clubs when they make these decisions.
Demons2013
Guest
As if collingwood will have enough space in the salary cap to retain Dawes anyway. When he goes to the dees he can not only earn a massive amount of money, but he can also be a part of a team that's quickly on the rise