Much of the aftermath of Australia’s 2-1 win against Iraq in Doha on Wednesday has been, somewhat misguidedly, directed towards what the result says about Australia’s true worth on the international football stage.
Currently ranked 34 in the world, down from 22 in August this year and a long 20 places below its all-time high of 14 in September 2009 (did that really happen?), the Socceroos have faced plenty of derision following their efforts in leaving it to the last ten minutes to defeat Iraq, ranked 46 places below Australia at 80.
This has followed criticism of their performances earlier this year in drawing against Oman (0-0) and Japan (1-1), and losing 2-1 to Jordan.
Criticism of the latter result I can understand. It was an inept performance that the team should have been very disappointed with. However the results of the other games were not that bad, in the circumstances. Let me explain.
Watching the 0-0 away draw with Oman in June left me feeling flat, as most scoreless draws do. Both teams had their chances and had it not been for Ali Al Habsi in the Oman goal, Australia would probably have won. The Wigan goalkeeper is a class above most of his teammates.
However adding the difficulty of the temperature during the game to the difficult in getting points from Middle Eastern teams away from home paints a picture different from the one painted by many in the media and among supporters, who see any result which is not a win as a failure no matter who the opposition.
Yes, a win would have been better, but getting a draw from a place like Oman is not an easy task. I consider that result a pass mark.
Drawing with Japan 1-1 in Brisbane was also a satisfactory result. Teams always try to expect to win their home games, but the Japanese team at the moment are a top-notch outfit and Australia did well to steal a point from them, especially after going down to ten men in dubious circumstances just after halftime.
Australia had a number of good chances to win the game and from that perspective some might consider the result insufficient, but I disagree. The result left us with two points after two games which on paper looks a slim return, but given the teams we played and where we played them, is acceptable.
The Jordan loss, even though away from home, was disappointing. A draw would have been a good result from this one and Archie Thompson’s late strike gave the Aussies a sniff, but they couldn’t find that second goal.
The Jordanians were jubilant and rightly so – they’d caught us unawares, outplayed us and Australia paid the price dearly. This result left the Socceroos on two points from three games which was not good, but looked a lot worse than what it was.
Had we lost to Iraq, there would have been pandemonium. Two points from four games would have been unacceptable and left the team on the bottom of the table with a mountain to climb to reach Brazil. Thanks to the two late goals we don’t any such problems… yet.
Had we drawn the game, similarly, all would not have been lost – three points from four games would not have been ideal but it wouldn’t have been terrible. Instead, Australia are now second on goal difference, with five points in the bag and, importantly, three of the last four games at home.
Let’s be honest: it is not easy to qualify through Asia. We made a cakewalk of it for 2010 because we had a better team at the time. Over the course of that campaign, Australia had the benefit of playing Asian teams who were just beginning to improve their standards of professionalism and had not yet worked out how to unlock Australia’s collection of talented players – many of whom were playing regularly in the world’s top leagues at the time.
This is no longer the case. The players who make up Australia’s first-choice XI are now less concentrated in Europe and more scattered around the globe, many in lower-quality leagues than the ones their counterparts of four years ago were playing in. The average age of the squad is higher. Our Asian opponents are working out how to exploit us.
I’ll say it again – It is not easy to qualify through Asia. These are the reasons why.
For what it’s worth, I think the team will qualify for Brazil. I can see the Socceroos winning two out of their three remaining home games (against Iraq, Jordan and Oman), drawing the other, and losing to Japan away from home. This would give them 12 points.
Of course it depends on the results of the other games in the group but as the other teams have shown a tendency to either draw or take unexpected points off each other – and remember we’re the only team to have taken points from Japan – 12 should be enough for the Roos. This is not to say that they should aim for seven points from their last four games: obviously they should aim for 12.
However, seven would do the job and if we qualify for Asia with 12 points, it should be celebrated because each of those points will have been worked extremely hard for.
Some negativity surrounds Australia’s focus on finishing second in the group rather than trying to win it. I would say that is not entirely correct: the focus is on qualification for the World Cup. Winning the group or coming second doesn’t matter.
It would be nice to top the group but Japan have streaked ahead by five points and although the Socceroos might still catch them, finishing second should not be derided if it happens: valuable points should not be risked in the pursuit of top spot just for the sake of winning the section, nor should finishing second be seen as an inferior performance.
Japan have shown over recent years that they, along with South Korea, really are a class above the other Asian nations. Australia can only tenuously lay claim to being part of that bracket now, which is why the draw with Japan in Brisbane earlier this year along with a second-place finish in this group should be seen as a good result.
Although surprises happen all the time in football, there are different levels of achievement that apply to nations around the globe. All things being equal, the top bracket of Asian teams would not beat the top bracket of European (e.g. Spain, Italy, Germany) or South American (e.g. Brazil, Argentina) teams in a tournament match.
I would equate the top-level Asian teams to the second-tier European ones such as Croatia, Serbia, Ukraine with whom a draw in a tournament would be an acceptable result, and a win a good one. Which is why Australia can only weakly claim to being on that level; in all honesty, can anyone see us beating one of these second-tier European teams if we played them in a competitive game next week? Probably not.
The only downfall of Australia’s qualification for the 2006 World Cup and subsequent entry into the AFC has been the widespread expectation that the national team will make every World Cup from 2010 on.
As a nation we’ve gone from being excited about qualifying for the big tournament to being brutally critical of anything less. Qualification for 2010 wasn’t celebrated like 2006; rather, it was accepted as a fait accompli.
Similarly, not advancing past the first round in South Africa was deemed a failure when only other results of the group prevented the Socceroos from progressing with a win, a draw and a loss in the bag: the same return as 2006.
2010 wasn’t a terrible result. The Germany result aside, the team did well to draw with Ghana whom many expected us to beat and beat Serbia with whom everybody probably believed a draw would be a good result. Nobody would honestly have expected us to beat Germany in any case, so four points was a haul worthy of acceptance if not high praise.
I want the Socceroos to make the 2014 World Cup. I want them to win every game they play to get there and I want them to not just make the second round, but to win their quarter final, semi final and be the first non-European or South American nation to take it out.
But let’s be realistic – it won’t happen.
Just like the A-League will never catch up to the top leagues in Europe, Australia’s national team will always be playing catch-up with the big guns.
That’s not to say improvement shouldn’t be aspired for; rather, that the team and its supporters should take stock of where on the relative scale Australia’s national team sits and judge its performances accordingly. This would mean being proud of them if they make the World Cup whether in first, second or third place in the group or regardless of how many games they lose in the process.
We could all do well to appreciate what many followers of the game in Australia currently don’t, and that is that it is not easy to qualify through Asia. We can’t expect to make every World Cup and there will be hiccups along the way, such as the Jordan game. We can’t rely on the Socceroos’ 20- or 30-something world ranking and assume this means we’ll beat every Asian opponent bar Japan and South Korea because rankings go right out the window in the hazy atmosphere of World Cup qualification. There’s a lot more to consider than just that.
If the Socceroos don’t make it to Brazil I’ll be disappointed, but if they do I’ll be celebrating. It will have been an effort that should not be underestimated nor undervalued.
Michael
Guest
I am waiting with fear for the next game against Iraq. I see more determination and goal scoring players in their team than ours.Sorry to say but If we lose one more our chances dont look good at all....... as for our Olympic team .....?
Sam
Guest
Japan are a runaway train. When you look at Belgium's stockpile of talent, Japan's isn't fair behind. They could go as far as semi-finals in the next WC with some luck. They're finally producing players that are not only technically skilled but can also finish and are great with a dead ball. I think Australia needs to find the balance between youth policy and experienced heads and hasn't come anywhere near finding it yet. Sure, Archie has scored in his last two outings, but he isn't going to be in Rio. The same can be said of Neill, Ognenovski, Schwarzer and North. It's a pity Williams is so injury prone and Herd can't settle on a nation.
Sleemo
Guest
Philip, I'm not using those things you point out as excuses by any stretch. What I'm saying is that we need to be cognisant of where Australia sits in the scheme of world and Asian football when judging our results. There are two ways you can look at it. One is in the cold light of day, whereby winning/losing/drawing is the only thing that a team can be judged upon, and by extension only winning is acceptable. The same logic could be stretched out to the World Cup i.e. that only qualifying for the World Cup is acceptable and that everything less is a failure. Or you could look at the win/draw/loss results and view them in light of the current circumstances e.g. who the match was against, where it was, and its impact on the overall group standings. Looking at it from this angle, my points are as follows: Japan appear to have snuck out in front to such an extent that they will be difficult to catch, so we can try and catch them but probably won't therefore should focus on getting second place; out of three trips to the Middle East, a VERY difficult place for plenty of teams to get a good result, the Socceroos picked up 4 points which is a good return; a draw at home to Japan, who are streets ahead of us, is a good result; and with four games to go including three at home to the non-Japan teams in our group, we are well-placed to qualify for Brazil, however we have to do it and however many points we need to do it. In 2008 we had already made it out of the group and played against China in the last match in Sydney - we rested a number of players and China, a noticeably inferior team at the time, beat us 1-0 at home. Ideally something similar could happen with Japan this time around - our game against them is their second-last of the qualifying campaign, so if they've already qualified they might rest some key players which would give us a better chance of getting points off them. Imagine that - three points away to Japan would be priceless!
Roger
Guest
+1 I'd also add that I'd like to see a few Euro teams taking on the likes of Iraq, Jordan, Oman and other team that are supposed to be "third rate", especially if they play in the middle east. I think we'd see quite a few "shock results".
Roger
Guest
Very well written and well thought out.
fadida
Guest
Couple of points RobCampbell; 1) no one is talking about anyone being world class. Even at their best Viduka and Kewell weren't, and we certainly don't think anyone in our current group is close. Why mention this? Only the English seem fixated on "world class". 2) who cares if Europe don't rate the A-league? They don't rate Asian football either yet the Japanese are producing much better players than Britain for example. And since when are you the spokesman for Europe?
hawker
Guest
Bellow I want what your smoking. Australia will be lucky to get a point in the WC the way they are going.
RobCampbell
Guest
Who in the Aussie national side is still a world class player, for flip sake you only just beat Iraq 2-1 and for the record a-league isn't very highly thought of in Europe I wouldn't have known of Heskey going to Oz if it wasn't for the roar as for Del Piero he's a great player but he's in Sydney to retire. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Mantis
Roar Guru
I think we'll make the world cup, but unless we change how we've been playing lately, we'll get murdered by most teams
Goanna
Guest
A very fair article. We may not win the world cup, but at least we are there having a go. That is all you can ask. We do okay.
fadida
Guest
Agree. We are older and weaker due to talent cycles, but also due to a lack of foresight. Surely friendlies are a chance to expose a Rogic/Mooy/Halloran, while keeping 8-9 players the same for continuity. While we keep playing the same squad players eg North, at the expense of a Devere/Lowry/Franjic and always play our number 1 keeper how do we expect to have depth. We have better alternatives to Valeri/Jedinek (Partaalu) but they are given no game time. I expect us to make the WC from this position, but we'll again take essentiallly the same players, who'll all be older and inferior versions of themselves. We have more talent than we are showing. And there are some games in Asia we should expect to win. A weak Iraq on neutral territory in good weather conditions, and a great surface.
Bellow
Guest
Didn't Japan lose 4-0 to Brazil?
Jack
Guest
Good article, my concern is more about selection then age. Neil is out of form and playing in a terrible league but won't get dropped. We have Shane Lowry at Milwall and Devere in Korea does any one think Neil would get a contract at either club these days ? His pace is a liability and will only get worse. My other two are Carney and Valeri both seems to earn caps even of they are sitting on the bench apart from a few minor chamfers we are traveling ok
Philip Coates
Roar Guru
The author seems to be saying that because we are an older squad, because the players now play in lower leagues, because our opponents are now working out how to exploit our weaknesses we should consider the recent results to have been good results. These three situations didnt happen overnight but have been coming for some time and were reflected in FFA policy that gave PIm Verbeek a job description that pretty much stated dont worry about squad development, just qualify for the world cup. Now we reap what we have sown with Holger playing catch up trying (but not succeeding) to occasionally find new blood and new talent to support the ageing team. It will be interesting to see how Japan go when they play their matches away from home. That will give us some insight into how much ground we have lost compared to a key competitor in the Asian region.
Bellow
Guest
I think not only will Australia make the world cup, we will get out the group stage.
Bellow
Guest
While traveling to NY, we went to a NYRB game in Harrison,NJ and the skill level was very good. Toronto is the worst team, besides Chivas USA this year. NY red bull beat them 4-1, could have have been 6-1 and wasn't even trying. They have been the worst team since they came into MLS, not made the playoffs not one time. The only player on that team that's any good is Silva. Many MLS players make 150,000, and we in Australia have a salary cap just like MLS. This is what many Euro-snobs say about the A-league we have no P/R system. I say so what, does that make it any less important. I understand in the US, no sports league have P/R and this system works in the US. I also understand the NASL is growing to becoming a great second div. for MLS. I also understand that canadian teams don't have alot of canadian teams on their roster, which is why you guys lost 8-1 to Honduras. However as far as skill level, MLS is very good, I've seen it with my own eyes.
Igor
Guest
My friend, I'm not angry at the USA or MLS. I'm stating in my opinion that MLS is a poor product. I've gone to MLS games in Toronto and the "professional" skill level is appalling. These guys are not pros.... what is the average salary? it says on the web that it is around $150,000 which is not a true figure because each team can sign a franchise player at a inflated salary. The true figure is around $50,000. There is no relegation which basically makes MLS a Mc Donalds franchise. The people that run the Canadian Soccer Association wouldn't be allowed to clean the change rooms of a team in Europe. This is a fact. Australia has a population of 23 million, they have players all over the world. Their representation is stable. I watched them in WC Germany 2006. Great team, great fans!!
Mantis
Roar Guru
Belgium are on the rise, they will be the dark horses of the world cup, and would give us a spanking at the moment. Hazard, Kompany, Vermalaen, Lukaku, Fellaini, Vertonghen, Mignolet, Dembele, Mirallas, Benteke, De Bruyne.... they are a good young side with plenty of quality. I wish we were like that, but at the moment it seems we are the polar opposite. And you dont think we'll win the world cup for at least 12 years??? Are you serious. We'd be lucky to just qualify from the group stages mate.
Bellow
Guest
FIFA rankings are a joke, FIFA is a joke. Australia is fine, every nation has trouble during WC qualification.
Bellow
Guest
Canada had three MLS players on the Canadian team, while missing the MLS MVP due to season ending injury, Dero. Honduras had 5 MLS players and each destroyed the Canadian team to a 8-1 victory. Now the top US MLS player on the USMNT, both made an impact in WC qualifiers, so how is MLS pathetic? Someone who father is American, I must say, you just sound angry because the Canadian MLS teams don't even think Canadian players are that good, because they continue to sign better non-Canadian players. It will take Canada till 2022 to make the world cup, till your three MLS teams academy kids start to grow.Lets look at Jamaica a MNT that used to suck, now most of their national team is MLS and now they are in the Hex. MLS has 16 american teams, Canada has three, yet the USSF has now started to allow Canada youth teams to compete in the US youth leagues. Canada biggest problem is you have no national league to act as an second League under the MLS teams. You have one NASL team, but you need your own league. You now are seeing loans and signings between NASL and MLS. This is the growth the USMNT is going through. However Canada is still in the same mindset since 30 years ago. Coaching and youth training is way ahead then Canada, which is why more youth players in the US is developing.