When the IRB player of the year award is announced next week, consider it an upset if All Blacks captain Richie McCaw does not collect the prize.
If he does not, familiar hands might be to blame.
Kieran Read and Conrad Smith also have strong claims, while the wizardy of Israel Dagg might have also caught the eye.
However, the smart money would be on McCaw scooping up the accolade for a fourth time. It might be his last act before heading off on a six-month break designed to keep the fire burning until the 2015 World Cup.
The spell will take him out of three Tests against the French in New Zealand next year and the impact will be significant.
In current form, McCaw is as close to irreplaceable as you can get.
It is not just his play, although that in itself is a huge loss: he brings a hardness to the tackle and an aggression to his ball-carrying that others cannot match.
There are other elements New Zealand will find hard to replace.
Take Tony Woodcock’s 39th-minute try against the Welsh, for example.
Wales were already on the ropes, 16-0 down, but McCaw chose to apply the knockout blow by turning down a shot at goal and opting for the lineout. And his work did not finish there.
Reprising the move that saw Woodcock plunge over for the All Blacks’ try in the World Cup final, McCaw was involved in the lift for the dummy target, Liam Messam. But as soon as that was completed – and not even looking at where the ball was going – McCaw then shifted into blocking mode, helping to open up the gap in the middle of the lineout by preventing Wales prop Paul James access to Woodcock.
There is no more single-minded or crafty player in the game. Young Chiefs openside Sam Cane – McCaw’s likely replacement in the French series – is a fine player, but he does not have McCaw’s nous, accumulated through losses as well as wins.
Yet even the sharpness of the All Blacks tailed off in the second half. In post-match remarks McCaw and Smith alluded to weariness in the camp – which brings us to comments made by Robbie Deans after the Italy Test.
Deans said it was evident the Wallabies’ “batteries need recharging”, which is probably as relevant to mental sharpness as well as physical.
The remarks can provoke one reaction: that professional sportsmen representing their country should never be tired. However, it prompted me to stand back and take a look at the Wallabies schedule since the World Cup, and there was enough discrepancy between it and other nations to make reference to it here.
The upcoming Wales Test will be the Wallabies’ 17th game since the World Cup, 16 Tests and one game against the Barbarians. It’s a 50 per cent greater workload at Test level than some of their peers. France have had 10 and Ireland have had 11, and neither will play this weekend. The All Blacks are coming up to Test number 14 since the World Cup final.
Does it entirely account for some of the Wallabies’ below-par performances this year? No, but you would have to be fairly churlish not to acknowledge the possibility of it having an impact. After this weekend, Australia will have played Wales five times alone since the 2011 tournament. It’s too much.
In fact, like the All Blacks’ game against England this weekend, the Wallabies encounter will fall outside the IRB’s international window, meaning that clubs are not obliged to release their players for Test duty. Consequently, Wales will not have the services of James Hook, who plays in France and would have had a decent chance of replacing the out-of-form Rhys Priestland.
The reason the respective unions agree to these fixtures will not surprise: the All Blacks have reportedly negotiated a fee of about $NZ4 million ($3.1 million) for the Twickenham fixture.
But whether the coaches and players would be as keen to put pen to the deal is another matter. There is an argument that the Wallabies should already be home.
By the time they do it will already be December and 2013’s onerous demands are just around the corner.
Handles
Guest
The Guardian says 1.5 million for NZ. And 750k for Australia in Cardiff. 4 million seems a lot, for a visiting team. Must be lots of TV money, because they wouldn't cover that with gate sales.
Ra
Guest
Mate, you don't know your stuff as far as Kiwi support To Pacific Island nations
ANON69
Guest
I have not seen him play # 7. Have you?
sledgeandhammer
Guest
Does this article even mention ratings? i.e. does it give the number of viewers per match? I thought it was stating the total views per competition. To get the ratings you would need to divide this figure by the number of matches played. Given the super 15 season is super short, the ratings may well be quite good in comparison to say the A-League. Perhaps someone can do the maths.
TheGreyGhost
Guest
"Virtually" being the key word. NZ rugby history (and rugby history) is littered with "irreplaceable" players. Michael Jones and Josh Kronfeld to name a couple... I expect the next cab to arrive on the rank shortly. NZ were desperately short of locks a couple of seasons back, short of half backs a year ago and short of quality 10's before that. Suddenly NZ have three contenders in Kerr-Barlow, Perenara and A. Smith who all out-class anything NZ have had in a decade. Cruden, Barret and Taylor all look credible at 10, with Cruden showing in patches that with regular time he has elements to his game that even outclass Carter in areas. Whitelock, Retallick and Romano. Say no more. All have materialized from out of nowhere. NZ rugby either has a magic well, or genius infrastructure for developing raw material. I sometimes wonder at the contrast between NZ's production line, isolation and lack of resources and the ability to steadfastly develop their own talent pool versus the collossus of England who are taking the short cut in getting out the cheque-book for an increasing number of externally developed players. What on Earth is going wrong there that such a rich union and large player base can't turn out an all English starting XV?
Ra
Guest
The couch on Roarer is a pride of place like the back of an All Blacks bus on tour - you gotta do the time, and earn your spot. There are a few of us old potatoes on this Roarers couch who pre-date the professional era. You gotta watch out for some of the new potatoes though because some are still mostly green, not yet ripened, too hard & bitter and can make you sick. Yeah i grew up on a farm too, and Ive planted a good variety of spuds according to the moon over a 27 year span. Just as they mature, they are graded, some go to higher honours, where big bucks are paid for them, others find their place, and others just turn plain rotten. But year in year out we kept planting and nurturing. And for no financial reward. Funny cause those young seedlings dont forget you. One I dug up and transplanted in 1977 as an 18 year old, came back 20 years later after a stella first class career in NZ provincial rugby of over 130 different paddocks and Maori rugby, and spotted me leaning against the bar in a room packed with rugby enthusiasts. He came over, stuck out his hand and much to the surprise of some around me said thanks coach, for everything. I didnt do much. There are still a couple of little seedlings still running in NRL tops who I had a little bit to do with. But then, a few other old potatoes in here can tell similar stories.. That's why we built this couch, so we could sit on it and watch our seedlings grow and mature to play good rugby and league, and to see who can tell the best lies.
sledgeandhammer
Guest
So super rugby's viewership dropped 11% in 2012. Was this a surprise? Coming after a bumper 2011, not really. The total figure is still healthy given the limited number of games in super rugby when compared to other sports, and the lack of free to air coverage. Clearly, the short SR season and limited home games will limit total views. Rugby also has to contend with the constant death riding it receives across the media. The reality is that the rags to riches success of the Queensland Reds has been phenomenal, the Brumbies had a strong 2012, the Rebels in my view have brought some real passion and excitement and a couple of wins in 2012, and next year is looking more positive for both the Force and Waratahs. Perception wise, at least rugby is in the news, I get the impression that the number of rusted on supporters is growing. With the Lions coming and if a few of our franchises can fire in 2013, it could be another big year. None of this means that rugby couldn't be run better in Australia. However, there is a danger seeking structural change through failure, which then becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.
Justin2
Guest
I'd imagine it will stay that way and become more prevalent too Jerry! I mean shut how many boat loads hit our sandy shores? Can you blame them ;)
Jerry
Guest
Kebab - out of the Wallabies and AB's, guess which team has a bunch of PI born players this season....
Neuen
Roar Rookie
Should the title read Overplayed or Over-payed?
Joe Pope
Guest
Back to the NZ relationship with the Pacific Island rugby teams. Some years ago Wellington persuaded Samoa to play their home game against Scotland in Wellington. The deal was that Samoa were guaranteed a decent financial sum against a guaranteed loss if the game was played in Apia. This was to be the start of a three year agreement which included coaching and gear support . Wellington envisaged Auckland and Canterbury striking similar deals with Fiji and Tonga. This was all arranged outside the control of the NZRU. Wellington has benefited from a large number of talented local Samoans ( was known as Manu Wellington in the 1980s ) Unfortunately the good old boys stopped the arrangement continuing. Great opportunity lost . Oldrugbytragic -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download it now [http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-roar/id327174726?mt=8].
The Kebab Connoisseur
Guest
Well Channel Ten is looking for sports content so who knows maybe they'll pick it up when the value goes down that much even Fox Sports gives up on it like they did with NBL.
mace 22
Guest
Justin that could work to.
Wazbo
Guest
ask Leon McDonald about being "ploughed" albeit a while ago but we once had players who could plough pretty effectively
hammertime
Guest
On the subject of tv ratings I predicted this fall to all my friends. last year I watched every oz team play; ie 5 games a week. this year with the conference system there were often only 2 or 3 games we played. Hey Presto! Half the ratings (with the occasional match of the round thrown in). the conference system may help crowds but it is death for ratings.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Australians don't plough through anyone in sport.
Justin2
Guest
Two words mace - Global Season.
The Kebab Connoisseur
Guest
Mace 22, NZ rugby has been doing it since the get-go. NZ is a small nation I suppose so we just go along with it to humour them. Surely if you were a Kiwi you would take all the wins with a tea spoon of humble pie because without this "South Seas All Star" line up they would be struggling with the Wallabies. Shame that NRL exists or we would utterly plough through them ringers and all. They wouldn't beat us for decades.
The Kebab Connoisseur
Guest
Saw the attempt by the ARU to have a domestic league a few years back. The Melbourne Rebels played the Sydney Sheilas or Vixens from memory. They had ludicrous team names, played before empty grounds and only on the ABC tv.
The Kebab Connoisseur
Guest
More people have come close to death from heart related problems in soccer worldwide than all the other codes. Maybe soccer needs banning.