With the completion of the NFL regular season, the suitors of February’s greatest prize have been thinned from 32 to 12.
As with last season, there is no clear standout amongst these remaining contenders, as each team carries question marks over their legitimacy.
It’s time to examine each remaining team, and consider why they won’t win the 2013 Super Bowl, starting with the American Football Conference (AFC).
Denver Broncos
This iteration of the Denver Broncos carries the strongest favouritism of any team in this year’s field, with elite production in every phase of the game.
The first of two concerning factors hanging over this team is the lack of quality opposition they have faced this season. Football Outsiders ranks the quality of the units the Broncos’ offence and defence have faced as 31st and 26th respectively.
Dominating performances over a weak schedule have provided the Broncos with the top seed in the AFC, but this soft run also leaves them open to an upset down the track.
This brings us to the other worrying element: Peyton Manning. Whilst Manning is the greatest quarterback of his generation, he has been prone to let-downs in the post-season. While at the Colts, Manning regularly led sides who stormed through the regular season, only to get the wobbles in January.
Manning hasn’t displayed any such vulnerability since winning a ring, but the possibility of regression always remains, especially as Mile High Stadium gets colder through the winter (adverse weather has often been touted as a weakness for the dome-bound Manning).
New England Patriots
The standard knock against the Patriots is that their unreliable defence costs them key games. Despite the strong improvements made at all levels of the Patriots’ defensive unit, the truth is this isn’t what will make the difference.
The Patriots’ losses tend not to be shootouts (where you would expect a poor defense to be the difference), as these games play into the hands of the hurry-up king Tom Brady. Rather, the Pats seem to struggle in low-scoring, ugly affairs (see their last two Super Bowl appearances).
Over the last two seasons (when the current iteration of the Patriots offence has been used), the team is 7-5 in games where they score less than 30 points, and 18-2 when they score more.
This team’s best chances come when they run up the score: a task that grows ever more difficult as the playoffs wear along.
Houston Texans
The Texans’ biggest problems seem to revolve around a lack of flexibility.
When they can generate consistent yardage through running back Arian Foster, and consequently force teams to honour their play action game, they’re hard to beat.
But as soon as that first down option starts to peter out, the whole offensive system seems to evaporate. Matt Schaub has repeatedly struggled to produce the goods when the running game can’t kick-start the offense.
These problems also seem to have a knock-on effect on the defensive side of the ball, which has struggled to maintain its discipline in close games.
Against the Green Bay Packers and Patriots (two blowout losses against contenders), the Texans’ defence struggled to get off the field due to costly penalties.
Baltimore Ravens
Every season the NFL teaches us that momentum is extremely important coming into the playoffs; a lesson that should worry the Ravens.
This team has limped into the playoffs by winning only one of its final five matches and haven’t beaten a significant foe since their home win against the Cowboys in week six.
Head coach John Harbaugh opted to rest a number of key starters in their final match of the season, as it had little impact on their playoff seeding. Whilst this may provide a more energetic group of players against the Colts this weekend, it’s a tactic that has regularly proven disastrous over past seasons.
Regaining confidence and momentum over the next month presents a huge challenge for a Ravens team that has struggled for stability (having recently fired offensive co-ordinator Cam Cameron) since September.
Cincinatti Bengals
The simple concern for the Bengals is what they can hang their hat on.
Aside from a fearsome pass-rush, no other facet of this team is strong enough to lay the foundations for a game plan, leading to the inconsistent production they’ve experienced all season.
Their offence is ranked 22nd in total yards produced, split into 17th and 18th respectively when divided into passing and rushing totals.
At some point in the post-season a team needs to know that they can give the ball to a unit, or a single player, and rely on them to get the job done. It’s difficult to see where the Bengals can turn for this sort of dependability.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are undoubtedly the story of the 2012 NFL season. But the truth is, their record has flattered them.
An extraordinary number of their wins came on the back of improbable comebacks, and some frankly lucky (sorry, terrible pun) plays from their rookie quarterback.
At some point, the glitter that surrounds this team will fade (although teams with this sort of feel-good aura tend to run deep into the postseason), and they’ll have to buckle up.
This brings us to the seventh worst defence in the league, when ranked by total yardage allowed.
Although many teams with poor defences have enjoyed playoff success recently, they all had elite performers on the other side of the ball (New England, Green Bay, New York, New Orleans).
Although Andrew Luck and Vick Ballard have enjoyed enormous rookie seasons, the lack of experience on this side of the ball suggests the Colts could struggle once the blowtorch of playoff football is applied.
Mushi
Guest
I paid attention. you are using it as a catch all measure of performance ergo you either beleive Sanchez is better or realize your logic is pretty flawed. As for golf and tennis tell me are these individual sports by any chance? Or do they rely on play calling, blocking, receiving, a running game and circa 50% of the game where they aren't on the field.
Kevin
Guest
How does saying "even mark sanchez has a better %" in post season wins equate to saying mark Sanchez is a better QB.? ( pay attention to the print) We equate greatness with great success in all sports, golf = majors, tennis = slams Eric says it well " let downs" , so as i suggested , let him prove his greatness with Denver, I will welcome it but if he fails again then what?
Tom
Guest
The only thing you need to know about using Superbowl rings as a measure of a QB is that Trent Dilfer has one. The QB will almost always cop flack for an underperforming team, but as others have stated, Peyton worked with a vastly inferior supporting cast and coaching staff to Brady for the majority of his career. It would be interesting to see how quickly Brady could lead a new team to success like Manning has; as Eric pointed out, even Matt Cassel had some success with the Patriots.
Mushi
Guest
Interesting on the rb front KC joyner has done some analysis that really no running back is capable of performing with bad blocking. In general ever back gets about the same yards per carry on plays with bad blocks, the big difference is the talented ones dial it up when the get a lane. Was pretty good stuff and makes a decent case for paying the blocker not the back
Mushi
Guest
He's already got the most mvps and basically was the offensive coordinator. He got his numbers with a far worse supporting class. Saying this would put him in consideration is horrible logic. If he wins one particular game this year it suddenly changes how good he was over the past 250ish games? That and you just suggested mark Sanchez is the better qb that alone should be enough to say hey maybe this is the worst way to judge a single player's influence in a team sport where they only play one way? Interesting listening to Simmons pod cast one of the guys that does gambling lines for the games said the data suggests pass rush effectiveness is the biggest key to post season success and yet here we are saying it should be what determines who is the best QB?
Eric George
Roar Rookie
Postseason records are simply misleading, in my opinion. Big Ben has two rings, but if you tried to even put him in the same ballpark as Manning you'd get laughed out of the room (it's like the similarly preposterous "who is the better Manning" argument). Brady enjoyed almost all of his postseason success in the early years of his career, but his best seasons as a QB certainly came later. Manning started slow, but has been very solid recently (as mentioned above). I think Rogers certainly is currently the scariest QB in the league (look at what he's done with little to work with this season). No one else can boast the depth and range of abilities he possesses. But the little things separate Brady and Manning from the rest of the field. I'm talking about stuff like pre-snap reads, understanding how to manipulate cadences, and having a really solid command over the pace of a drive.
Eric George
Roar Rookie
The 2000 Ravens were one of the all time great defensive units, so that's a very high bar to set for this Bengals unit. The other factor is that it's harder to win with a ground and pound game in the current offensive iteration of the NFL. We'll just have to wait and see how Cinci can go under the spotlight. In a podcast I did over at backpagelead.com.au I did rate them as a solid chance for the wildcard upset.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
Well the Bengals have been winning, who knows, Baltimore relied on there defence in 2000, so why not the Bengals? Holding teams to an average of 12 or so points for the last 8 weeks is amazing, much easier to win when you are doing that.
Kevin
Guest
Eric I'm also yet be to full convinced that Peyton is the best of his generation , but I guess this is the test, if he can winn with Denver, then maybe I will reconsider, he is under 50% in post season, 9/19 ? That's the killer, even mark Sanchez has a better % Is Aaron Rodgers the highest rated quarterback at present moment?
Eric George
Roar Rookie
I think you kind of prove my point there, as I can't think of a worse position to have your greatest talent. You can be an immensely talented WR, but if the rest of the offense is a bit mediocre then it's pretty hard to impose yourself on the game, just ask Larry Fitzgerald. Adrian Peterson can get the job done with huge individual efforts, but it's rare to see receivers doing the same without some help at other offensive positions The other factor here is that Green hasn't been that devastating this year. He isn't top 5 in any stat except for catches of 40+ yards (at which his 7 leads the league). Football Outsiders' DYAR stat (I keep quoting these guys because I think their stats are the most useful) places him as the 23rd best WR in the league. In short, he's an explosive, exciting deep threat reciever, but I'm not convinced he's involved enough to swing the outcome of a playoff game. But wildcard round games are often crazy, so you never know, you could be right!
Eric George
Roar Rookie
Farmerj, I'm a huge Pats homer, and there is no sportsperson in the world I admire more than Brady. The level of execution he's been able to maintain for what, a decade, has been absurd. Buuuuuuuuut, I still have to say that Peyton's better. Aside from the MVP trophies and the bulk of stats the one factor I use to split the two at this point is the help each received. Although we may argue over who the greatest qb of this era is, I don't think there can be any similar argument over head coach. Belichick has reshaped the league on both sides of the ball, multiple times, and (as he's also the GM) has somehow kept his team at an elite level through many iterations without any significant dips. Manning had Jim Mora and Tony Dungy, two coaches with mixed track records. Additionally, Manning had a much larger control over the Colts offence (haven't done much research into the current situation at Denver) than Brady has ever held over his own. Ultimately, I think Peyton is simply more talented, and can claim more responsibility over the success of his teams than Brady. The obvious example at this point is the Matt Cassell season when Brady went down. The pats had enough talent, and Belichick worked enough magic to get the Patriots to the cusp of the playoffs with an incredibly average QB. This is the kind of topic that deserves a much more comprehensive breakdown, but simply put: despite my adoration of the man, I can't rationally claim that Brady is the best of this era.
Dogs of war
Guest
AJ green for the bengals is the player they can turn to for that vital play. The last few weeks they have been trying to find a decent number 2, and I think you will see a lot more action towards green this week. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download it now [http://itunes.apple.com/au/app/the-roar/id327174726?mt=8].
Farmerj
Guest
Peyton Manning isn't the greatest quarterback of his generation. Tom Brady is, by the length of the universe