As the Australian summer draws on, the coming NRL season is met with greater anticipation by fans and players alike.
However with continued speculation of off-season transfers and eager supporters baying for potential glory, realism that only one team will reign supreme must eventually sink in. Eventually.
But who will that team be?
I’m sure that there are 16 sets of fans who could explain why their team will hold the trophy aloft in October, but when truth be told, there are plenty of reasons why each team may not be crowned champions come the seasons’ end.
Here are the reasons why your team won’t win the title in 2013:
Brisbane Broncos
Despite Channel 9 and the ARLC doing all they can to assist Brisbane to lift another premiership, I can’t envisage them doing so if 2012 is anything to go by.
Injuries and post-Origin fatigue may well again hinder the Broncos in the run home to the semi-finals, limping in to the final eight as they have done in many a year. Picking up Scott Prince is a much needed boost to an otherwise tame halves stock.
The Broncos’ lack of creativity too often cost them at vital moments in 2012. They will finish inside the eight but once more their season will not progress deep into September.
Canterbury Bulldogs
The Dogs boast a formidable forward pack in 2013, their big men once more looking to revolutionise how teams attack in the NRL. However, shall anything happen to the health and wellbeing of Ben Barba I struggle to see the boys from Belmore replicating their form of 2012.
Barba’s sheer speed and ability to create something out of nothing will be sorely missed, despite boasting an array of players who could attempt to fill his void.
Canberra Raiders
Good fortune appears to elude the side from the nation’s capital. Good teams make their own luck – so what does that say about the Green Machine?
Raiders’ skipper Terry Campese has played only a handful of games, hampered by season ending injuries in his last three seasons. If the Raiders are to challenge, Sam Williams must feature in the starting line-up, with Campese possibly shifting to lock.
Unfortunately, for the sake of the Raiders fans, I can’t see this happening.
North Queensland Cowboys
The Cowboys were robbed in last year’s elimination final.
Plain and simple.
Exiting the competition in such a manner will either spur a team on to greater things in the following season, or hurt their morale.
If recent trends are anything to go by, the Cows will again yo-yo up and down the ladder. Thurston, like Barba, must stay on the paddock if his team is to feature.
Gold Coast Titans
No Scott Prince. Need I say more?
Aiden Sezar’s move from 6 to 7 will also detract from his natural wide-running game. Although it remains to be seen how he rallies the troops in first grade, I can’t see the youngster forming a competition-winning combination with Jordan Rankin in 2013.
Manly Sea Eagles
Manly will field a virtually unchanged line-up from the one witnessed in 2012. If Manly’s stars can avoid injury I can see why their parochial fans think they will go on to win in 2013.
The Second Year Syndrome is often known to affect players, but how about a coach?
It will be interesting to see if Geoff Toovey can maintain his good start to his coaching tenure, however I fear that if external pressures affect the club, the players may also reflect this in their performance. This is something Des Hasler was very good at avoiding, and Toovey must follow suit.
Melbourne Storm
They’ve been thereabouts for the last decade. The Storm has quality players and a coach who turns average players into quality (at least while they are in purple).
Talks that Bellamy will leave may affect the composure and resilience of the squad, despite the claims that it won’t. Regardless of whether he does or does not remain with the club beyond 2013, it is very hard to retain the title of champions in the NRL. This is even if you are the Storm of the late 00s, who despite four consecutive grand finals were unable to win two in a row.
Anando rahman
Guest
Haha wow how did forget the gun j mozz!
Anando rahman
Guest
Tony Williams, Frank Pritchard, Sam kasiano, James graham. Josh Jackson upcoming rep player. Josh Reynolds upcoming NSW player. All this topped off by the brilliance of Ben barba? No more to say.
Mick
Guest
Im a huge Cowboys fan and was disappointed with way we went out in the finals. There were some very average refereeing decisions going against both sides. But at the end of the day the Cowboys were outplayed and didn't take advantage of their attacking opportunities. As it says in the article, good teams make their own luck. I agree with article that the Cowboys would struggle without Thurston. Neil Henry has done his best to make the team less reliant on Thurston and to a lesser extent Bowen. However the fact remains these two are vital to the Cowboys having any hope of challenging for the Premiership. However I disagree that this is the reason the Cowboys won't win the Premiership. All clubs rely on a few key players maintaining form and staying injury free to be completive. Could Storm beat quality opposition without the leadership and direction of Cronk and Smit?. Likewise Bulldogs be anywhere near as formidable without the attacking spark of Barba and Morris? Could Manly beat the best without Foran and DCE? Whilst depth and quality coaching can help, the fact remains all clubs rely on a few key men.
DubbleBubble
Guest
What I mean is they were not clearly the best team. They certainly weren't massively outplaying Manly.
Morfs
Guest
^This. As I stated in my response to kellet, the Storm pack has proven it can handle itself against bigger sides, and pretty much had to throughout the finals campaign last year. A monster pack is not an advantage if you can't use it correctly, and I believe that a lighter pack full of confident, aggressive, and intelligent (if not overly skilled), forwards, playing a smart yet simple game will win out most times. This is a key part of the Storm structure under Craig Bellamy, and it has proved its worth time and again.
Morfs
Guest
Firstly, thank you for wishing my team good luck in it's campaign to go back to back. We may not have as many 'superstars' as previous incarnations of the side, but I believe that the current Storm squad, having built on last year, has the potential to be as good as the sides from the 2006-2009 era, if not better. Now, on to your points: 1. Storm signed Brett Finch: This will add more depth in the halves during Origin period. Bellamy sees this as very important after what happened last year when Widdop moves to fullback to cover for Slater. This year, if we have to do the same, Finch at 5/8 is still a very good option. His previous combination with Cronk was not at all dissimilar to the current Cronk/Widdop partnership as Finch & Widdop have similar styles. Finch has also been signed as a 'mentor' for our younger halves (i.e. Ben Hampton, other NYC graduates, and also Widdop). 2. Storm let Quinny go: Well, he wanted to go, as I believe he wanted to be closer to his family in Newcastle. Also, with the current depth of the Storm backs, it would be very hard for him to break back into the starting line-up now. He could have filled a second rower/utility role, but we have better options than him, really. 3. Lastly, say what you want about the Storm forward pack, but we do have some big lads (Bromwich & Ryles especially), and the rest of the pack has proven it can handle itself against bigger sides. Just look at the efforts in defence against a monstrous Bulldogs pack in the grand final.
Brendon
Guest
Love how Melbourne forward pack always gets mentioned because their not as big as other nrl teams... The game has changed its a lot faster then what it was say 10 years ago.. The time of big 115kg+ forwards is over you need a balance of size and stamina and skill, sonny bill Williams is a prime example of a near perfect forward not that I'm a man of his
Tommygun
Roar Rookie
You can't have watched many Canberra games last season. Campese to lock! Our best player is already our lock! Shaun Fensom is a gun and should be looking at a country berth. Besides, Campo has an absolutely huge boot on him, Williams and McCrone both had trouble giving the Raiders good field possession with kicks. It will be tough on one of them but either McCrone or Williams will need to be dropped to the bench to play in a back up hooker role or revert to NSW Cup. Cowboys and The Dogs will have strong seasons but I'm not totally convinced on Manly. They have some top players but it's definately an aging team, especially the forward pack. King 32 in March, Ballin 29, Kite 32, Choc 29, Gulavo 35 in July and G. Stewart 29. Losing Williams and a good depth player like Lussick shows a bit of short sightedness i feel, however, the aquisition of Chee Kam and Horo is a good one. B. Stewart will be 28 at the start of next season, Lyon 31 and Matai 28. If everyone stays fit, obviously they will be very hard to beat, especially with the best halves pairing in the comp. The depth is not quite there like it has been in previous years and should only take a few injuries to show some holes.
Tommygun
Roar Rookie
Broncos won't make the 8. Severe lack of a backline. Hoffman at fullback an obvious choice. Wings prove much more difficult with Yow Yeh i think just returning to running and Dale Copley. Well, he is Dale Copley. Reed is a solid centre and Hodges is the only star of the backline, albeit completelyu injury prone. Wallace is an honest trier and Norman has potential, but has had potential for the last few seasons now. Scott Prince hasn't been in form for two years. Matt Orford situation anyone?
Tommygun
Roar Rookie
The Sea Eagles were ten times bettr than the Cowboys in that match and deserved to win. However, the best team often doesn't win so the Cowboys can feel a bit bitter about how that one went...
Cameron
Roar Guru
Storm signed Brett finch! Why? They just let go Anthony Quinn! Why? Their forward pack is no where near as big compared to Brisbane Broncos, along with the Canterbury bulldogs. Broncos to cause a lot of headaches. Just have a look at their forward pack, huge and full of depth. By the way no team has gone back to back since the mighty Broncos. So good luck Melbourne.
Bazzio
Roar Guru
Agree with rselvage7, & like Brisbane, Manly were piggy-backed up the ladder by shonky refereeing. As for Manly ~ pfffft
Pot Stirrer
Guest
Wont that put egg on the faces of the Titans management. I can just see the press now. Prince Leads Broncos to premiership favouritism. The Broncos are shaping as a serious contender but before a ball has been kicked i think the Storm are a huge chance to go Back To Back.
Cameron
Roar Guru
Move on? Me? Umm... sorry I didn't realise what I wrote was so confusing. I said Broncos still make the finals without lockyer and I also said id, put my money on Brisbane to win this year. Last,I checked lockyer didn't make a come back. So I believe i've moved on quite well. Also made reference to the depth Brisbane will have this year just as last, but a lot of injuries disrupted their season. Again I don't care if anyone disagrees. come back in a years time and then we'll talk about how the Broncos went.
eagleJack
Guest
That's a mature comment....
eagleJack
Guest
It's funny Mals when Manly played the Cowboys in Townsville in Rd 22 they had 2 tries called back for obstruction. One was 50/50. The other was a disgrace. How did they react? They put their heads down, got on with it and won the game. Calls go against you in every game. A sign of a good team is how you react to them. The cowboys, and in particular Thurston, have a lot to learn. But I do actually believe that adversity will make the Cowboys a stronger unit in 2013.
matt
Guest
Not to mention manly being found to be offside 24 times the refs didn't call
Luke
Guest
Canberra didn't have Meninga and they still made the finals too. Same principal champ, he's never coming back time to move on.
Mals
Guest
Matt, by your definition Manly were "robbed" as well when the Cowboys try off an illegal strip was allowed. Manly still wins the game 2 tries to 1 if you disallowed 2 of Manly's tries. I said the result was fine i.e. Manly deserved to win the game & got no credit for doing so. I never said the standard of refereeing was fine. The simple fact is that Manly got themselves into those positions where the video referee had to be consulted, so it's a testament to their far greater attacking power on the night. The Cowboys repeatedly failed to do, JT displayed a distinct lack of maturity on the night when the heat was on. So the question remains, how were the Cowboys robbed??
Matt Moule
Guest
Cowboys didn't dominate cause if you were down two tries it would make you play a different style! The cowboys had to play catch up footy after those two crap calls! That changed the game witch means the cowboys were robbed any chance.