Fellow Roarer Greg Pritchard has made his January predictions for the NRL this year.
Can’t disagree with most of what he said, so I’m going to focus on the coming season’s dark horses.
I’ve selected two teams and rated their chances of being a major surprise in 2013.
Really, most ‘predictions’ aren’t really predictions at all – just rather obvious statements of fact. The vast majority of the time, teams perform to expectations based on their talent level.
That’s why any sane person will say last year’s top four will be up there again, with Manly possibly sliding a game or three. The Dragons will probably be worse. Cronulla might be one or three wins better.
Great. Got that out of the way. Now let’s see if we can find anything else in our NRL tea leaves.
The two teams I’ve nominated to surprise everyone and win the title next year are Gold Coast Titans and Penrith Panthers.
(I hear you saying two teams can’t win the premiership in one season. Wrong. 1997, anyone? Alright, not fair. I know that two can’t win it, but it’s not fun to nominate dark horses if you’re not tipping them to go all the way.)
I have a feeling about the Coast. Scott Prince is not a big loss – his form has been mediocre in recent years when he’s gotten on the field. I don’t know who the new halfback is going to be – maybe Albert Kelly – but Aiden Sezer is going to be a tremendous player and, as Canterbury and Souths showed last year, with enough talent elsewhere it is possible to contend without an absolutely dominant halves combination.
Gold Coast have good talent spread across the park. Greg Bird, Dave Taylor, Jamal Idris (who may even be training this pre-season), William Zillmann finally started to show signs of fulfilling some potential last season. Matt Srama is a future rep hooker. Then you have quality workers in Nate Myles and Ashley Harrison.
In this situation, you only need a couple more things to go right to contend.
Kelly or Jordan Rankin stepping up at halfback (I’d consider moving Bird to five-eighth with Sezer at halfback as well). One of their prospects having a breakout year. Maybe another acquisition – Michael Jennings is making a fool of me by not yet signing with the Roosters; he would be a huge addition for the Titans.
So that’s dark horse number one: Gold Coast will win the title in 2013.
The Panthers’ case has weakened in recent weeks, given the fact they’re going to lose one of the best attacking centres in the game.
Except that in recent times, if you watched their games, Penrith haven’t really had Michael Jennings anyway. Not the way NSW had him last year, probing out of dummy half and looking dangerous with every possession.
So he may not be a loss but in some ways it might help, forcing Ivan Cleary to re-orient his attack.
Penrith have not added outstanding talent, but they have added a lot of useful talent and, once again, if some of their prospects pan out, they will move up a lot of notches in 2013.
Dean Whare, Lewis Brown, James Segeyaro, Wes Naiqama, Mose Masoe and Sika Manu are all players that will make a team better.
Segeyaro can give them a weapon at dummy half, and I like Penrith’s pack – Dayne Weston, Sam McKendry, Tim Grant, Masoe and Manu could be a handful and provide a terrific platform.
Although Luke Lewis has been a fantastic player, I agree with Phil Gould and Ivan Cleary’s decision to start over and get younger and, by extension, hungrier.
Okay, so the forwards might set a good platform – but for what?
This is where it might get tricky, but Lachlan Coote and Luke Walsh gave me hope toward the end of 2012 – especially Coote, who seemed more relaxed at five-eighth, without the pressures of being an attacking force from the back, a mantle he didn’t quite live up to.
Josh Mansour, when healthy, could be outstanding for Penrith at fullback. Naiqama and Dean Whare could be a decent centre combination, and….
Yeah. I know. I’m essentially banking on Mansour and Coote breaking out, with strong support from the halfback, an okay three-quarter line and a surprise from the under-20s.
But something niggling at me says that Penrith’s whole will be a lot better than its parts. At least I hope so, because it would make me look really smart (and lucky).
So there it is. Penrith and Gold Coast to battle it out in the grand final. With both winning. Place your bets.
Wilson Flatley
Roar Rookie
the whole GC team is complacent. losing is a habit and they are now firmly in the habit, you're making a motza having a bludge up at surfers why bother to dig yourself out of such a hole.
josh
Guest
I'm a Cronulla supporter and would agree that that super league game was nothing more than an exhibition match.
Renegade
Guest
Yeah good article mate. I know this is taking the piss but honestly it's pretty hard to pick out a top 8 from what is such an even competition. It's easier to try and pick which teams won't make it....which at the moment i have concluded that the dragons, eels and panthers have no chance of winning the comp.
Hez
Roar Rookie
The Raiders to fold under the immense presure of being named last years bolters. The Titans will go ok if: A) Bailey stays fit B) Idris gets fit C) Bird doesn't become complacent after signing a life contract. The Panthers have as much chance as any other fringe club that is rebuilding and trying to climb out of the cellar. There is too much turmoil at the club stoked by Ivan and Guss for me to put them into the eight.
starry91
Guest
guys raiders in top 4 this year guarunteed they have very good forward pack outstanding if you ask me white, papali, lars, shillington, not to mention fensom and edwards, 2 of the best defensive forwards in the game, then you have a great backline in the likes of campo if he stays injury free even if he doesnt u have williams to replace him which i think he showed a glimps of what hes capable of but he does make some bad defencive calls but he is 5 foot nothing lol, then u got croker which do i need to remind anyone leading point scorer of last year? furgoson and robinson and earl, great backline if you ask me great depth too with edrick lee this team has unbelieveable depth i think the raiders are going to have a fantastic season top 4 at least top 6 at worst i think
Tom
Guest
Penrith contenders LOL they have lost almost all of their best players. I doubt they will go further even if they bought 4 immortals and a box of donughts.
Patrick D
Guest
that will be a great age. A time where players like Mark Tookey command the headlines, the footy show spots, and $500,000 a year salaries.
Scott Minto
Guest
Which week will that be?
Scott Minto
Guest
I wonder how long the Golden Age of the Fullback will last? I cant wait to see the Golden Age of the Prop come in - where having dominant Props mean that your team does well.
Spiritfree
Guest
"I’d be willing to bet against both the Warriors and Sharks finishing ahead of both these teams in 2013." As it's tennis season again, can I be the first to say: "YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!"
Ronald M
Guest
Yeah your right Will, its just that I always seem to be disappointed when I watch the Tigers. I still think they will struggle this year though.
Pot Stirrer
Guest
You may ne taking the piss. But i have been suprised at how the Panthers have been so complelty dismissed inregards to making the 8. I think they have recruited well. Dean Whare was impressive for manly last year. Id like to see the panthers play Nagama at FB and whare and Brown in the centres or do they still have Tigh, hi is a handy player. They have a big forward pack and with a half who at least has a kicking game they will go ok imo.
Will Sinclair
Guest
"Tigers are my bet for a mid table position again, they have talent but never seem to deliver." Never seem to deliver? Three Top 4 finishes and a Premiership in the past 7 seasons would seem to compare pretty well with virtually every club in the competition (well - those tho played by the rules, at least).
oikee
Guest
Well dont overcomplicate things MG, you know us league fans only read the first words in large letters. :)
Patrick D
Guest
One of the main problems was not having a super star no1. Look at the top 5 teams after the regular season last year and their fullbacks.... Storm - Slater Bulldogs - Barba Souths - Inglis Sea Eagles - B Stewart Cowboys - Bowen The other teams tended to have had a merry go round with injuries and selection (panthers, raiders, Tigers) or stars out of form (Boyd) injured (Hayne) or others arguably not offering enough ball playing as a modern no1 needs (Hoffman, Mini, Locke) While it is simplistic to point to this only as you obviously need a balanced team and good coaching, i would be loathe to favor any team that didnt have a gun at 1.
MG Burbank
Roar Guru
Oikee, did you read the article big fella? I said that I can't disagree with Pritchard's predictions and that I was only "tipping" these two teams to make the GF for fun. I'd be willing to bet against both the Warriors and Sharks finishing ahead of both these teams in 2013.
MG Burbank
Roar Guru
Correct, Dingo- if people read the article attentively they'll notice that I'm essentially picking the same top 4 from last year- which means no Penrith or GC in the GF. But I do think these two teams have the most room for improvement in 2013.
MG Burbank
Roar Guru
Yep CC, Origin will be a struggle and you're right, the depth will be a problem. A Top 8 berth would be a significant achievement and one that I think is possible.
Chris Chard
Expert
I like the way you think MG! One of the most underrated problems for the Titans is when Origin rolls around. You always hear talk of it affecting the Broncos, but when the Titans lose Harrison, Bird and Myles that's a lot of tackles. Chuck in possibles like Taylor, Douglas, fit Idris and Bailey when the Blues get desperate and it's struggle st. I found last year that if the Titans had their top 17 (or at least 15) last year they were sweet, scratch below it though and it was hard going, particularly out wide. Now get down to the TAB! CC
JCVD
Guest
Brisbane won the inaugral 1998 NRL premiership. And were Cronulla the Minor premiers in 1999?? So to say their 1997 Super League GF was an exhibition is a bit harsh.