Today’s Group 2 Hobartville Stakes marks the return to racing for most of Australia’s brightest emerging stars with Pierro as the major drawcard. We’ll have live updates before, during and after the 4.30pm AEDT start time.
The field looks to be one of the strongest in the history of the race, with most runners avoiding All Too Hard who will be running in the Australian Guineas 20 minutes before the start of this race.
Despite what the betting markets show, today’s result is not as clear cut as suggested. Most runners in this field are returning first up from spells and as three year olds, the past few months will have provided some with major development growths, and others not so much.
There are no accurate formlines linking this field together so it leaves the door open for a shock upset if Pierro isn’t at the top of his game, which we cannot be sure he is.
The Golden Slipper winner enters today with just two blemishes on his perfect record, both at the hands of All Too Hard.
It is likely Pierro will start odd-on favourite having never been defeated in Sydney. A son of Lonhro, Pierro will be seeking to win the race his sire did 11 years ago.
Showers are expected throughout the day and a wet track should suit Pierro. With one barrier trial before running first up today, he comfortably extended in his stride to finish six lengths ahead of the next horse It’s a Dundeel, who will also be making his autumn return today.
After disappointing in the VRC Derby where he started favourite, It’s a Dundeel still looks to be the best staying three year old going around.
He’ll start at the long odds but that is no reflection on his talent. The 1400m trip today looks to be a bit too short for him but if he has a good run he’ll win his next start, ideally at 1600m or beyond.
The most obvious threat to Pierro looks to be his stable mate, Proisir, who also went to the Cox Plate as a three-year-old last season.
Proisir’s most recent barrier trial was equally as impressive as Pierro’s. It’s difficult to assess where Proisir is in his development since this will be just his second preparation while the other big chances in the race are entering their third, but he’s definitely one to watch.
Unbeaten colt Rebel Dane enters the race having come through the Group 2 Royal Sovereign Stakes which has previously been a reasonable form indicator for the Hobartville Stakes. Lonhro won both in 2002, as did Mutawaajid in 2007.
For Rebel Dane to be a winning chance, he’ll need to the race to be run slower than expected but that seems unlikely with Proisir expected to shoot forward from gate 11 and set a fast tempo.
Like Rebel Dane, Mulaazem has more question marks than ticks despite coming through a strong lead up race. Winning the Group 3 Autumn Stakes defeating VRC Derby winner Fiveandahalfstar and runner up Super Cool, the Peter Moody runner has claims on favouritism in this race.
However, neither Fiveandahalfstar nor Super Cool has taken on Pierro or Proisir so Mulaazem’s form is more seductive than accurate.
The Darley stable cannot be discounted today with three runners in the field. The shortest priced of the trio will be Tatra who took out the Group 2 Sandown Guineas in his last start.
Somewhat going under the radar during the spring due to Pierro, All Too Hard and It’s a Dundeel headlining the three-year-old class, Darley’s three-year-olds have been returning some blistering turns of foot.
Darley trainer Peter Snowdon’s standing as a trainer of two and three year olds has been steadily increasing over the past two years and his runners will win a few of the Group 1’s this season.
At high odds, Snowden’s runner Proverb is the pick of the longshots to figure in the placings. He’s consistently run behind Tatra throughout the spring and doesn’t lose by much. By Commands, his breeding and previous form shows him to be an excellent first up runner and 1400m looks ideal for him.
Overall, this not the best betting race of the day with all of the top chances resuming today first up. Pierro will start favourite but he’s not as good of a lock as the early markets suggest and there is better value elsewhere.
Due to the lack of uncertainty of just how taxing Pierro’s big spring campaign was, I’m going to reserve a few coins for a blowover.
Tips
1. Proverb
2. Pierro
3. Proisir
4. It’s a Dundeel
Alfred Chan
Expert
Join us here for a full recap of the Group 1 Australian Guineas: http://www.theroar.com.au/2013/03/02/2013-australian-guineas-preview-tips-and-live-blog/
Alfred Chan
Expert
So that's it from Rosehill. The race was much more existing than the betting markets suggested. Pierro looks good but he still has a long way to go in this campaign before he gets back to top form. Rebel Dane was mighty impressive today and will continue on to the Randwick Guineas in two weeks and be a big chance depending on if All Too Hard goes there. Proisir returned nicely to finish third but it's clear he needs more distance It's a Dundeel delivered the most impressive run in my opinion. Parked at the tail of the field, he flew home and will win at his next start. He'll win the Derby. Besides that, no one else really stood out. That's it from me and I hope you picked a winner!
Alfred Chan
Expert
It may be too early in his preparation to asses this but, Pierro just plugged over the final 25m. Nash Rawiller admits he was lucky to win today. He thought he was beaten at the 50 and admits he pushed the button 100m too early. How many more bad rides can Gai afford to but Nash on?
Alfred Chan
Expert
Gai says Pierro is better than he was in the spring. I'm not convinced. That was too close for a horse which started odds on. Best runs certainly came from Rebel Dane and It's a Dundeel. It's a Dundeel flew home and would have won had this race been 200m longer.
Alfred Chan
Expert
A great run by It's a Dundeel to get up for fourth. Rebel Dane performed much better than expected. Pierro was really really(!) pushed today.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Group 2 Hobartville Stakes over 1400m. And they're off!!! Ashokan gets the jump Mulazam flies out and goes tot he front Pierro takes up second spot and Proisit has gone up there too Pierro now drops to fourth and sits behind Proisir Mulaazem still leads with 600 to go 2L back is Proisit Rebel Dane now makes his move Pierro very wide Pierro now goes to the lead Rebel Dane has come on the inside strong, very close Rebel Dane has tested Pierro but Pierro has held on by .2L from Rebel Dane and Prosir another 2L back. Pierro takes it, but just!
Alfred Chan
Expert
We're a minute from start time. Today's winner will be setting themselves up for a tilt at the Rosehill Guineas. Horses now being loaded in.
Alfred Chan
Expert
There's been a few moves. The biggest drifter as has been Tatra who no one wants and the firmer is Proisir who has firmed from $9.50 into $6.50. That's a plunge in any other race.
Alfred Chan
Expert
TVN's Brian York has selected Pierro as his pick of the yard. He also like Rebel Dane and Mulazeem
Alfred Chan
Expert
It's Pierro on top by EVERY expert punter. Gai is quietly confident and believes Pierro has come back better than he was in the spring. Today is the first time Pierro will be running without the blinkers.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Does anyone have Pierro not winning this? Mulazaam is out of the same sire as Sepoy and he's getting a fair bit of attention and is a proved wet tracker.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Unbeaten California Dane colt Rebel Dane is the clear second favourite. He steps up in class here but Pierro is just a class above him. Be wary punters, you'll get about $1.60 for Pierro close to the jump but he's not a lock in this. It's a heavy track at Rosehill and wet tracks are renowned for throwing out upsets.
Alfred Chan
Expert
To those Roarers joining us from the Australian Guineas, welcome back. Everyone else, hi! We now move to Rosehill for the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes. There's only one horse to talk about here and it's the Golden Slipper winner who is into $1.80 as the clear favourite.