UFC 158: GSP vs. Diaz - who takes it?

This Sunday, the city of Montreal will play host to UFC 158 as hometown hero Georges St. Pierre defends his welterweight title against Nick Diaz.

The pair were first supposed to meet at UFC 137 back in 2011. However,

UFC president Dana White cancelled the fight when Diaz failed to show at an important press event without giving any reason.

Since then, Diaz went on to defeat BJ Penn at UFC 137 and lost to Carlos Condit at UFC 143. After the Condit fight, Diaz tested positive for marijuana and was suspended for a year.

St. Pierre was inactive for most of 2011 and 2012 due to a knee injury. He returned to successfully defend his title against Condit at UFC 154 last November.

Despite Diaz’s previous loss to Condit, the UFC gave Diaz the title shot at the champion’s insistence. ‘GSP’ wants Diaz.

The pre-fight build up has been a verbal wave as Diaz has verbally bashed GSP with his trademark profanity-laced trash talk.

The normally reserved GSP has even fired back. In a now-legendary UFC conference call, the champ was quoted as saying “I don’t understand half of the words that you are saying, because your English is… I speak English better than you, man. Talk to me like a normal human being, man.”

So who holds the edge?

Striking

On the feet it’s a question of what’s better: variety or speciality? A Kyokushin Karate black belt and a student of Muay Thai trainer Phil Nurse, GSP is known to mix up flashy kicks and punches in his striking attack.

Having recently trained with Freddie Roach, the champ has been working to improve his boxing as well.

Diaz’s striking game is less varied but much more effective. Whereas GSP primarily uses his striking to set up takedowns, Diaz’s high-volume punching style is deceptively damaging.

The former pro boxer works behind a pawing jab and small slips to set up hooks, straight lefts and body punches to devastating effect.

Not every punch is thrown with killer intentions but the damage adds up (see: BJ Penn).

Diaz isn’t afraid to cop a few strikes on the way in, though his defence is excellent if he can bait an opponent into trading with him. GSP may have more weapons in his arsenal but none are as effective as Diaz’s boxing.

Edge: Diaz

Wrestling
Here the disparity is much bigger. Wrestling is easily the weakest part of Diaz’s game and the strongest part of GSP’s.

GSP has dominated decorated wrestlers at their own game over the years. At times, Diaz will actually give up a takedown to work for a submission off his back. Not much discussion here.

Edge: GSP

Submissions
While both fighters are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts, Diaz is the more accomplished grappler of the two.

A long-time student of Cesar Gracie, Diaz holds titles in both gi and no-gi jiu-jitsu. He also holds eight wins by submission in MMA.

While GSP is no slouch in the grappling department, he has not won a fight via submission since 2007. He mainly uses his jiu-jitsu skills to maintain top control and fend off submission attempts.

Edge: Diaz

Strength and conditioning

GSP is known to be fanatic when it comes to fight preparation and his strength and conditioning work is no exception. He has been known to physically bully other welterweights inside the cage. He has also gone the 5-round distance numerous times against top-notch opposition, whereas Diaz has only twice gone past the third round.

Nonetheless, Diaz possesses the necessary cardio that his high-volume style demands. A triathlon competitor outside of MMA, his amazing endurance carries over into his fights. He has a never-ending motor, and his style doesn’t exert unnecessary effort

There is no question that GSP is the stronger of the two but few can match Diaz’s unrelenting stamina.

Edge: Tie

Mental game

For the first time in recent memory, it seems that an opponent’s trash talk has penetrated GSP’s Zen demeanour.

The champ has retaliated by talking about the “dark side” of his psyche and promises to inflict a beating on Diaz. This may be dangerous as an angry GSP could be more prone to making a mistake.

He has previously admitted to seeing a sports psychologist to treat some confidence issues he faces in his fights. Still, the champ remains the more emotionally mature of the two. Name calling, missed media obligations and failed drug tests are just a few of the issues that come along with every Diaz fight.

His heart may also be in question, given that he abruptly but temporarily quit the sport after his disappointing loss to Condit in early 2012.

Edge: GSP

Prediction

While Diaz will probably fare better than the rest in inflicting some damage to the champ, GSP will inevitable control the rhythm and pace of the fight with his wrestling.

Diaz’s best shot will be to out-strike and outland GSP before the fight hits the ground or to submit him off his back. The former is more likely to happen but still a long shot. GSP will bully Diaz around the cage round after round.

Result: GSP via unanimous decision