The first Group 1 race of the Sydney Carnival for the three year olds is the Randwick Guineas over 1600m. Join us in the run-up to the 4.10pm AEDT start time for live race updates and a blog of the race of this exciting group of three-year-olds.
Despite the notable absences of All Too Hard and Pierro from the race book, this a deceptively strong field of three year olds which is looking like it may be one of the best in recent memory.
Run at Warwick Farm this year due to renovations to the track and stands at Randwick, this 1600m race possesses an interesting mix of sprinters as well as stayers seeking further distance.
The majority of runners in the field have come through the Group 1 Australian Guineas over 1600m or the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes over 1400m.
The field is headlined by Rebel Dane, who came within a nostril of stealing victory from Pierro in the Hobartville Stakes.
The Gary Portelli-trained colt has been fielding offers for the past fortnight from buyers in Hong Kong who are willing to pay a significant premium.
The California Dane colt has the luxury of running on his home track but the concern may be that it is his first trip over the mile but his acceleration on the heavy turf in the Hobartville suggests the distance will be no problem.
Kudos should be given to Portelli and connections for sticking with Jason Collett for the ride when several other higher profile hoops put their hands up.
The forgotten Gai Waterhouse colt Proisir looms as the biggest danger to Rebel Dane according to the betting.
The Group 1 winning Choisir colt plugged during his run in the Hobartville and was clearly uncomfortable on the heavy track. Despite showing no turn of foot he still ran a respectable third, three lengths behind the winner.
The mile looks the best distance for Proisir but he’ll need a dry track no damper than a dead five if he is to win.
In just about any other year, the winner of the Group 1 Australian Guineas from a fortnight ago would be the clear-cut favourite for the Randwick Guineas but 2013 is an anomaly.
With just about every high profile three year old opting to bypass the Australian Guineas where they would have run into All Too Hard, Ferlax romped to victory with an inside run after the scratching of All Too Hard.
Commentators have argued the 2013 Australian Guineas to be the weakest in history after All Too Hard’s withdrawal but such statements are a gross injustice to Ferlax.
Trainer Jim Conlan has stated Ferlax to be the best horse he has trained since Rekindled Interest and the Pentire colt is still unbeaten after four starts.
Brett Prebble will be flying over from Hong Kong to take the ride on Ferlax who has drawn perfectly in barrier eight.
This will be Ferlax’s first race against the Sydney three year olds and he’ll have his chance to prove himself as more than the opportunistic colt who claimed a soft Australian Guineas victory.
It’s a Dundeel produced the best run of the race in the Hobartville to be hitting the line harder than any other in the field. The 1400m on offer that day was too short for this High Chaparral stayer who will appreciate the mile today.
He’s probably still looking for more distance but from barrier two, James McDonald is likely to push further up the front of the field than be camped at the back like his Hobartville run.
He’s returned in the autumn better than he was in the spring and he’ll push onto the Derby if all goes well today.
Probably the happiest man about the switch to Warwick Farm is Peter Snowden whose three runners, Tatra, Proverb and Solemn will be running on their home track.
Whilst none of them dazzled on their first up runs to finish ninth, fifth and seventh respectively in the Hobartville, Proverb is the pick of the three after making up ground on the inside to finish strong.
Today’s feature looms as an excellent race with an even field without Pierro or All Too Hard.
There’s about seven or eight horses to have fair claims to today and the field is more even than the early betting markets suggest.
My Tips
1. It’s a Dundeel
2. Rebel Dane
3. Proverb
4. Ferlax
Roar Racing Editor Justin Cinque
1. Proisir
2. Rebel Dane
3. It’s A Dundeel
4. Ferlax
Roar Expert Andrew Hawkins
1. It’s A Dundeel
2. Rebel Dane
3. Tougher Than Ever
4. Proisir
Roar Expert Cameron Rose
1. Rebel Dane
2. It’s A Dundeel
3. Proisir
4. Ashokan (scratched) – Sacred Falls
Join us from 4.00pm AEDT for live updates in the lead-up to the race, live blog and a full post-race assessment.
Roar racing expect, Justin Cinque, will be providing live comments from Warwick Farm.
Moneybags
Guest
Keep the tips coming boys!
Bondy
Guest
I backed Priosir Justin he was stalking him from the 600 it was a peach of a ride from MacDonald, Priosir needs some cheap sectionals and to kick otherwise he wont beat him and cant.
Alfred Chan
Expert
That's it from us at The Roar today. It's A Dundeel has won his second Group 1 by claiming the Randwick Guineas. He beat an honest Proisir who ran a respectable race and Tatra who flew home for third. Rebel Dane finished fourth. We'll be back on Friday when Black Caviar runs for the final time in his home State when he takes on the Group 1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley. Thanks for joining us and I hope you backed a winner.
Alfred Chan
Expert
I have no idea what Gai Waterhouse will be thinking but in my opinion, I don't think Pierro will run in the Rosehill Guineas. I don't think he has the staying power to go with It's A Dundeel and there's no need to blemish Pierro's stallion prospect. All Too Hard vs It's A Dundeel would be great over 2000m! I had hoped It's A Dundeel had been nominated for last year's Cox Plate but he went to the Derby where he ran 5th instead. Pierro will press onto the Rosehill Guineas.
Alfred Chan
Expert
The Rosehill Guineas over 2000m will be the next stop for most of today's runners. If It's A Dundeel runs onto the Rosehill, he'll open around the $2.50 mark. In my opinion, the biggest threat to It's A Dundeel over 2000m is Hvasstan who won over 2000m last night at Moonee Valley beating Philippi and Shear Talent. I think they'll meet in the Rosehill Guineas.
Alfred Chan
Expert
A bit of a disappointing run by Ferlax who was given every chance. The commentators have been proven correct. The quality of the Australian Guineas was abysmal. It will be a long flight back to Hong Kong for Brett Prebble.
Alfred Chan
Expert
So where to now for the other runners? Rebel Dane hit the front briefly but he just couldn't go with Proisir and It's A Dundeel when they kicked. Nice return by Tatra who looks a good miler.
Alfred Chan
Expert
It's A Dundeel was the only horse included in all the selections on The Roar. Our experts know what they're talking about! Well done to Andrew Hawkins who backed him to win.
Alfred Chan
Expert
That's his sixth win from nine starts and he looks in beautiful form. How great was the call to run with the blinkers and stay midfield? A long sustained run and he is going to push Pierro and All Too Hard if they meet later in the season.
Justin Cinque
Expert
James MacDonald's ride wins It's A Dundeel this race. He settled him cliser than ever. Proisir couldn't get away at the 300 because it's a dundeel was stalking him on the turn. Proisir didn't lie down but credit to the Bakers.
Alfred Chan
Expert
It's A Dundeel paying $6.70 for the win! Wow!
Alfred Chan
Expert
Woo! What a great ride by James McDonald who rose hands and heels. Rebel Dane couldn't run on. The mile was too far for him. That was almost a replay of the Spring Champion Stakes. It's A Dundeel kicked at the 300m mark and kept going. Prosir didn't do anything until the 200m mark and by then McDonald had a length on him.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Tatra is the last to load in. And we're off in the Randwick Guineas! Rebel Dane jumps well Tatra and Prosir go to the front, It's A Dundeel is midfield and out well, Sacred Falls shuffled back, Proverb last as expected, Tatra, Tougher Than Ever, Prosir, Rebel Dane 800 to go Rebel Dane has a great run on the fence, Tatra still leads, Tougher than Ever second and Dundeel running on around the bend, Prosir coming too Dundeel down the outside Dundeel to the lead Proisir tyrint go with him It's A Dundeel!!!! Proisir second Tatra third!
Alfred Chan
Expert
Horse loading in now! Good luck everyone!
Alfred Chan
Expert
Rebel Dane will start the $2.90 favorite, Proisir the clear second - $3.70 and It's A Dundeel at $5.50.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Very keen to see It's A Dundeel run with the blinkers for the first time. He usually doesn't have them and settles of the pace. He's going to run on the pace today and for me, if he still have the same acceleration with the blinkers he had without them, he's my pick. I'm sticking with my picks. 1. It's A Dundeel 2. Rebel Dane 3. Proverb 4. Ferlax
Andrew Hawkins
Expert
Cheering It's A Dundeel big time. Good luck all.
Scuba
Guest
Like Tougher Than Ever to cause the upset
Alfred Chan
Expert
Nash Rawiller is also backing Proisir - no surprises there!
Justin Cinque
Expert
Randwick Guineas - The late mail On looks 1. Ferlax 2. Proisir 3. Rebel Dane 4. Tatra All things considered 1. Proisir 2. It's A Dundeel 3. Rebel Dane 4. Ferlax Warming to Dundeel. Can run on today. Blinkers will help.