Both the English and Australian teams are going through interesting stages, with both teams having ups and downs in series so far this summer.
Australia just came off the back of a flogging in India, but had a pretty successful home summer. On the other hand the English team beat India but struggled against the Kiwis.
The upcoming Ashes are not going to be the most attractive matches but are going to be a lot closer than many think.
The shocking display in India was caused by a combination of good spin bowling by one team and poor playing of spin by the other. The Australians will not have to play quality spin in England. This will increase their chances.
The English claim good swing bowling is Australia’s downfall. I’m not so sure about this. The South Africans have the best fast bowling attack in the world, and yet the Australians did well against them.
The Australians were on top in the first, bad weather stopping the Australians from winning in Brisbane. In the second, an injury to Pattinson left two fast bowlers to bowl the South Africans out. The Aussies were beaten in the third, but that was a Test with a brand new bowling attack that performed horribly.
The English were bowled out twice in three Tests for low scores on very flat wickets. This was because of good fast bowling by Boult and Southee. Imagine what Pattinson, Jackson Bird and Ryan Harris could get up to. Add Mitchell Starc with a swing ball and that spells trouble for the English.
My Ashes line-up:
Cowan – always consistent but should be dropped if doesn’t finish starts in first two Tests.
Warner – He needs to judge when the big shot is there.
Hughes – Will do better against pace.
Khawaja – He deserves ago. Should still be dropped though if not performing.
Clarke – Needs to stay at five.
Smith – If does not perform, then select Doolan.
Wade – He is improving.
Pattinson – Best bowler in Australia
Harris – When the Rhino is fit he is as good as anyone.
Bird – Consistency will trouble the English.
Lyon/Agar – form dictates which spinner should take the field. Lyon should be given first chance though.
nickyc
Guest
With the exception of 1-2 idiotic England supporters, almost all the pessimism and talk of whitewashes has come from Aussies rather than Poms. Irrespective of the quality of the teams, good batting pitches and the vagaries of the weather mean that isn't going to happen. Personally I expect England to win something like 2-0/3-0/3-1 at home but if Australia use the five tests to finally develop a settled side then the return series could go either way. Patience not panic is key!
Nick Richardson
Roar Guru
I'm not cocky, i'm just saying the English think they will whitewash the next 2 ashes campaigns, and i don't agree.
Rowdy
Guest
As an English fan, please let me tell you to regard the writings of our sports writers and ex-players with the same degree of seriousness as you treat the Aus journalists. English cricket followers are expecting another tough series - maybe our batting is stronger, but the Aus seam attack looks pretty good. Anyone predicting 10-0 to England is either delusional, Both, or both.
nickyc
Guest
'Hilfy and Johnson won't play again' - I suggest you have a word with CA then as they have just given both players new contracts for 2013/14! Indeed, they have given contracts to six of the seven quicks I listed with Jackson Bird being the solitary exception. Only Cummins - who hasn't played a FC game since November 2011 - and Faulkner make it from your list. The average age of the contracted quicks is 26 as is that of the nine English fast bowlers I named who were all given contracts by the ECB this week. Like you I could have given a long list of young future Eng bowlers but I was more concerned with the immediate future. However, for what it's worth 21 yr old slow left arm spinner Danny Briggs has been given a contract, while on the fast bowling front 6' 7" Essex left arm fast bowler Reece Topley - who already has a much better FC record than Pat Cummins despite being ten months younger at 19 yrs 6 wks - is widely expected to play for England in the near future.
Nick Richardson
Roar Guru
Good insight Bertie.
Nick Richardson
Roar Guru
In India 17 wasn't enough.
Nick Richardson
Roar Guru
I don't think the Aussie's need an all-rounder. With all the bowlers batting decent at the moment let all their batting add up to that of an all-rounder.
Nick Richardson
Roar Guru
Take Rhino out of that and put Starc in you get an avg of 24. Not to mention Cummins who is nineteen and will probably be on the plane to England in July.
Nick Richardson
Roar Guru
Hilfy and Johnson won't play again. Look at up coming generation Cummins Hazlewood Sandhu Coulter-nile Faulkner Richardson Marsh Also the young Spinners Boyce Agar Zampa These players will be seen in the future.
John
Guest
Trent, and any other commentators that think so, Mitchell Starc is NOT a test bowler, awesome one day and T20 but people are being blinded by his batting I think. He is still too wayward to be a good test bowler and it will show. Give him some Shield cricket first, have a look at his FC stats and their are many better, who actually bowl better in that format. But hey, that doesn't count anymore sadly!
Bertie
Guest
Yeh, mate I freely admit that's a big call. That's why I've given you a full squad worth. My logic is this, if you're going to have an all-rounder, Starc's a better bowler than Henriques, Smith and Faulkner (although Faullkner is a very good bowler), and he's only a marginally worse batsman than that lot. So if we insist on playing an all-rounder it might as well be Starc (not that I consider him an all-rounder, just that I don't think much of the others, except Faulkner) or Faulkner (and given Starc's form. . .) HOWEVER, we can scrap the all-rounder altogether and bring in Rogers, Burns or Maddinson and put them higher up the order. Similarly, it's possible to play Shane Watson instead of Starc (although he has been crap lately).
Lancashire
Guest
You should be worried that there's over 20 names being floated around here with only 1 or 2 certainties (Clarke, Pattinson?) for the team itself. Compare that with the England team who are largely settled (Cook, +1 (Compton?), Trott, Pietersen, Bell, +1 (Root?), Prior, Broad, Swann, Anderson, Finn) and it will be near impossible for the Aussie selectors to come up with a consistently performing team. Secondly, how many of your bowlers are injured regularly? That doesn't bode well for a tough, long tour. For that reason the likes of Harris will be a luxury, unless you end up taking 17/18 players.
nickyc
Guest
Ryan Harris 33 Mitchell Johnson 31 Ben Hilfenhaus 30 Peter Siddle 28 Jackson Bird 26 Mitchell Starc 23 James Pattinson 22 Not sure what your point is as the age profiles are pretty much identical. Incidentally, the average age of the pace attack you have selected (Bird, Harris & Pattinson) is 27. The average age of the Eng pace attack in their series against NZ (Anderson, Broad & Finn) was 26.
ChrisT
Guest
I love these articles. It's the triumph of self delusion over evidence that some more kindly call 'hope'. Bit like some of the articles that were floating about pre India tour where 'we've got a real chance' rationales were being punted to any sucker that might buy them. Ah well, I guess 'closer than we think' is a relative statement. . Good luck Australia. Hopefully Glenn won't be predicting the result this time.
Nick Richardson
Roar Guru
Compare that to the aussies.
nickyc
Guest
JGK is spot on with his analysis of my comment! You also comment on the age of some of the Poms quicks but they are hardly decrepit: Chris Tremlett 31 Graham Onions 30 James Anderson 30 Tim Bresnan 28 Stuart Broad 26 Steve Finn 23 and leading the next generation; Stuart Meaker 24 Chris Woakes 24 James Harris 22
Nick Richardson
Roar Guru
Forget Watson even if he is bowling. He fails with the bat and is a waste of a space in a batting line up.
Nick Richardson
Roar Guru
Thanks JGK for clearing that up. Yes the batting quality in the shield will have an effect on the stats. But you can tell by looking at a bowler if he has the goods to be professional bowler or not (usually). Also Anderson, Onions, and Tremlett are over thirty and all great bowlers but only have a few years left in them, and there is no immediate replacement for these bowlers. Anderson is a amazing bowler that has spearheaded the English attack for the last couple of years and there is no immediate replacement. He will be missed when he retires, Which hopefully isn't for a few years yet as he is a pleasure to watch.
Disco
Roar Guru
Cowan loves a war analogy.
JGK
Roar Guru
I think Nick is making the point that the apparently good first class figures of the likes of Bird etc are very flattering given the quality of batsmen they are up against. The fact that the best batsmen in Shield are consistently getting found out at Test level seems to make this a very valid observation. It all very 90s England at the moment.