Hawthorn are better off without Franklin

By Brodie / Roar Guru

After watching the Easter Monday clash between Hawthorn and Geelong the play of Lance Franklin struck me as odd.

I couldn’t come out of the game thinking Franklin had done anything to help Hawthorn actually win the game.

Franklin didn’t help run back on defence, he didn’t capitalise on opportunities, he looked disinterested and to be honest got routinely beat in most contests.

So after the game I got stuck into some Lance Franklin research and I came out with some interesting results.

My hypothesis heading into the research was ‘Hawthorn is more effective when Lance Franklin is not playing’.

I looked back at the last two years and compared games where Franklin was playing and those where he was not. Lance Franklin has only missed eight games in the past two seasons, which created a small sample size when collating my research however I still found the results effective.

I removed the statistics when Franklin was playing against the new AFL franchises GC Suns and the GWS Giants or as I like to call them ‘aberration games’. This is to create an even platform in which to judge the results.

Here is what I found in my results:

• In 2011 with Franklin (17 games), Hawthorn averaged 14 goals and 13.7 behinds per game (27.7 scoring shots per game);

• In 2011 without Franklin (2 games), Hawthorn averaged 20 goals, 8.5 behinds (28.5 scoring shots per game);

• In 2012 with Franklin (13 games), Hawthorn averaged 15.8 goals and 14.1 behinds per game (30.3 scoring shots per game);

• In 2012 without Franklin (6 games), Hawthorn averaged 20.8 goals and 14.7 behinds (35.5 scoring shots per game).

As you can clearly see Hawthorn is a five goal a game better side without Lance Franklin. This is quite a drastic change in the statistics to back up my hypothesis.

When looking at Lance Franklin’s career statistics in yearly splits, it is almost impossible to argue Lance Franklin has improved at all.

Franklin’s free kick ratio is quite disgusting to look at, while his accuracy a goal is also rather appealing. Last season Lance Franklin regressed in handballs, marks, goals and behinds which is quite a red flag.

Without Franklin, it can be certainly argued that Hawthorn are a more unpredictable and more efficient side without the selfishness and arrogance on Franklin.

Since the 2008 winning grand final whenever Franklin has kicked two goals or fewer, Hawthorn has a record of 13-6.

The unpredictable nature of which Lance Franklin will show up on the day is kryptonite in the Hawks unique style of possession and effective disposal football.

With the rumoured price tag of Franklin said to be over one million per season year is the price really worth it for Hawthorn? As the statistics show Lance Franklin is certainly not a one million dollar player for the Hawks.

With players such as Jarryd Roughhead, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli and Ryan Schonmakers all showing they have a high capability in being a key forward, Franklin certainly will not be missed in the Hawthorn side if he so chooses to leave the Brown and Gold.

Sorry Jeff Kennett, Clarko isn’t the problem, Buddy is.

The Crowd Says:

2013-06-21T02:49:26+00:00

D-ball

Guest


How did he "turn the game" if you guys lost dumbie? Think before you type. If he had of kicked straight and converted - you guys win. End of story.

2013-04-11T11:04:54+00:00

Otter

Guest


I'm a Hawks supporter, but when Buddy was out last year there was suddenly an exciting energy about the team. Beltings to Bulldogs, Essendon, Port and GC, an electric win over Collingwood, and a narrow loss to Geelong....no Buddy. Sometimes Buddy can be electrifying himself, but this was on a team level. It's funny how Buddy becomes the focal point when he's around...without him all the other players start bobbing up and doing great things. It's as if they become free to play more daringly. I'm in two minds about Buddy. If he's going to play the wait-and-see contract game, part of me thinks he should just go. We've all seen what happened to Collingwood with the Cloke distractions. Might be interesting for Hawthorn to force Franklin's hand. No Franklin would create plenty of room in the salary cap, and all the other exciting recruits we have might really start to blossom. I have a particular gripe that Savage wasn't given more game time in the finals...he was on fire. (I know his performance as sub wasn't spectacular in the GF, but I think he would have done well if played from the start.) Franklin's a frustrating player...he's not a great mark, he's clumsy and gives away lots of free kicks, and he can't kick straight. When he was lining up to kick that goal in the last quarter against the Swans, I almost had to cover my eyes. The kick looked horrible off the boot. If he's going to put himself ahead of the team - which he is doing with the contract stalling - then part of me wants to see him go. That's not "one for all" as in the song. That's "one for one".

2013-04-11T00:45:00+00:00

johnb747b

Guest


This has been a thought-provoking discussion, typical of the quality comment that the roar affords. My two bob's worth on Buddy (probably worth only a shilling)? If his mind is on the job, he does ok. Most teams, I guess, would take him onto their list if the chance arose. How to counter his 'lazy games'? I haven't a clue. I wish his coach luck.

2013-04-10T06:22:23+00:00

swannies05

Roar Pro


Buddy is a true great of the game. The comments earlier saying he isn't a big match player are just ludicrous. I am a Swans fan and his performance in last year's grand final was simply incredible. His goals in the third quarter are simply things that no one else can do. I am also always impressed by his chasing and tackling and you can be rest assured that if Hawthorn do lose him at the end of the year they will be spewing!!

2013-04-09T23:52:47+00:00

John Ascenzo

Guest


Yeah, right. And the Suns are better without Ablett, and Carlton are better without Judd, and Fremantle are better without Pavlich and Collingwood are better without Swan. What a load of rubbish. This is the sort of stuff that politicians get away with but it doesn't apply to sport. The best are just that and coaching and team strategy should be devised to make the most of all great players.

2013-04-09T13:29:10+00:00

Nathan of Perth

Guest


It's that, like Gold Coast with Ablett, "kick it to Star Player" soon becomes "Make It Star Player's Problem" and people will go to them whether or not the play is really there. This makes life impossible for the target, as other opponents can gang up on them effectively.

2013-04-09T13:24:21+00:00

Deep Thinker

Guest


Is the problem that Buddy is overrated, or that Clarkson hasn't got the tactics right when Buddy is playing?

2013-04-07T11:18:01+00:00

hawker

Guest


Honestly mate you've got NFI watch the game again if you have to. when did he kick those 3 goals ? after sydney had dominated the 2nd qtr and kicked the first 2 of the second half. I maintain he turned the game hawthorn's way, JohnD yes of course in the end his (and few other's) misses at critical stages cost the game but you're blind if couldn't see his effort got us back in with a chance..

2013-04-07T08:15:41+00:00

Mango Jack

Guest


Not sure how that can be, hawker. He only kicked 3 goals.

2013-04-07T08:02:53+00:00

Winston

Guest


I completely agree that those 3 are all bad players (or at least bad forwards) to replace Buddy. But I think rather than changing Buddy, isn't it more about changing the other players? If Buddy's asset is his unpredictability, then he should just keep doing what he's doing. It's more that everyone else needs to realise that they can't kick it to him every time. The number of good left footers in their team simply doesn't correlate with the number of goals they kick out of them - isn't that more the problem? The team itself thinks they can just bomb the ball in and the forwards will take care of the rest. You need guys like Smith and Suckling (if only he wasn't out this year) to sneak forward a bit more and have midfielders to go back to cover the holes they've left.

2013-04-07T02:14:13+00:00

JohnD

Guest


I loved Jack's game in Round 1 and he didn't kick a goal

2013-04-07T02:11:57+00:00

JohnD

Guest


He had a reasonable game, hawker, but if he had kicked straight, the Hawks would have won. Stolen from Jon Ralph: " He kicked 3.4 and a shot out of bounds just before halftime, with his confidence in his set-shot action falling away badly. He played on at all costs - even from directly in front of goal - and badly hooked a set shot in the last quarter that would have put Hawthorn 17 points up. " http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/teams/lance-franklins-set-shot-routine-gets-a-new-look-after-grand-final-spray/story-e6frf9lx-1226607964483

2013-04-07T00:37:18+00:00

hawker

Guest


"No, Power Forwards do not grow on trees but at the price tag Franklin is asking it would simply hurt us too much. With Roughead, Gunston and Schonmakers on the roster we have talls who can hold down that role well." Your kidding yourself if you want to rely on Gunston and Schoenmakers as key forwards. Schoenmakers is was and always will be a defender, we've gone through too much pain with him at CHB and are just starting to see the fruits of our labour. Gunston is a 3rd tall who is developing ( a few more games like easter monday and he'll be developing at box hill)

2013-04-07T00:25:07+00:00

hawker

Guest


Thats the midfielders fault , not buddy's.

2013-04-07T00:08:36+00:00

hawker

Guest


"I’ve thought for a while now that Buddy is a big moment player, not a big game one. We all marvel at those stunning goals on the run from deep in the left pocket, but he has rarely, if ever turned a game of any significance. His set shot accuracy is so bad, he is probably best advised to play on every time he takes a mark." Never turned a game of any significance ?? I'll give you the hot tip, if it wasn't for him we would've lost the GF by 8goals +.

AUTHOR

2013-04-06T23:58:35+00:00

Brodie

Roar Guru


Tom, I spent hours upon hours researching different methods it's just a shame i can't upload an excel spreadsheet here haha. GWS and GC were not established teams whereas Essendon certainly was. I did not remove the Kangaroos game where Hawthorn blew them away. Regardless of whether or not the Essendon game was an outlier or not they still didn't have their supposed 'forward line king'. There will always be uncontrolled factors in research (unless access to full data is available and you're getting paid to spend weeks on it!!)

AUTHOR

2013-04-06T23:53:17+00:00

Brodie

Roar Guru


I agree, the unique skill set players of Hawthorn such as Rioli and Bruest are much more of a damaging forward line then a one-on-one Buddy contest.

AUTHOR

2013-04-06T23:51:38+00:00

Brodie

Roar Guru


Hawthorn are a very talented team. I feel that Buddy generally doesn't fit into the mold of team very well. No, Power Forwards do not grow on trees but at the price tag Franklin is asking it would simply hurt us too much. With Roughead, Gunston and Schonmakers on the roster we have talls who can hold down that role well. I like your point about the ego. I think that needs to be sorted out.

AUTHOR

2013-04-06T23:48:55+00:00

Brodie

Roar Guru


The sample size wasn't ideal for sure but it's not only in the statistics. Just generally looking at a match his efforts are dismal and if it's not about him, he won't make an effort.

2013-04-06T21:09:31+00:00

Radelaide

Guest


Yes but in the grand final Hawthorn started to win in the third quarter when Buddy moved to midfield and Rioli, Williams and Dew started to run amok in the forward line.

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