What a funny old tournament Super Rugby is.
Whatever narrative is being provided in rugby editorials about the potential of various teams, the facts being presented on the field are starkly at odds with expectations.
Indeed, with the eighth round completed, it seems that the animal kingdom is in upheaval; that the natural laws are now in suspension.
Two Australian teams are in the top four.
The Hurricanes and the Cheetahs (the only teams to have won all of their most recent four matches) are now in the top six.
The Highlanders have bombed, and the Stormers are in free-fall.
The Blues are snapping at the Hurricanes’ heels.
This narrative has more twists and turns than George R. R. Martin’s epic Game of Thrones series.
Let’s have a look at the contenders. For the sake of brevity, that means the top four.
Perhaps to nobody’s surprise, the Chiefs (or the Starks of Winterfell) sit triumphantly on top of the log, having conceded only one loss for their five victories and bonus points with their South African tour now behind them.
Their only games still to be played outside of New Zealand are in Sydney and Melbourne.
It’d take a brave man to bet against them running away with the tournament at this stage.
The Sharks and Brumbies lead their respective conferences and round out the top three spaces on the table.
The Sharks have overcome the indignity of being stampeded by the Brumbies at home in a pathetic performance by obliterating the poor Rebels and following this slaughter up with an able victory over a McCarter-less Crusaders outfit.
A lack of bonus points is holding them back, but at least they are accumulating wins, and the first forty minutes of round five are well behind them.
Unfortunately for the Brumbies, the same appears to have held true for them.
Since ambushing the Sharks at the Shark Tank, they have wobbled all over the place.
A jittery but respectable loss to the Stormers in Cape Town was followed by a jittery and unworthy victory over the Bulls in Canberra.
And then came the Kings. A draw seems inexcusable, especially given the braindead tactics employed therein. It seems the Brumbies are building a history of underestimating the new kids on the block.
But credit must be given where it is due. The Kings performed brilliantly in their first outing at Bruce Stadium.
Their cellar-dweller ranking belies the respectability of their actual performances. These guys will sting you if you don’t take them seriously.
The Brumbies certainly didn’t pay their dues.
They have reason to be very grateful to the Force for upsetting the Reds earlier in the season, otherwise they would have been overtaken with the Reds managing to eke out a victory over the bye this weekend.
As it is, the Ponies remain on top of the conference – a good place to be when going through a form slump.
A trip to Dunedin will give them an opportunity to get themselves back on the rails, but in spite of the losses the Highlanders appear to be waking from their hibernation.
Just a couple of weeks ago, the Reds barely escaped Otago with a victory. There is no room for hubris at the ends of the earth.
I can’t imagine that hubris will be much of an issue for the Reds, on the other hand, as they head to Waikato to try beat the competition frontrunners in their own domain.
The Reds are in an interesting space in 2013. Losses to the Brumbies and Force have hamstrung them, and they have a tough road ahead.
The South African tour is beginning to look very nasty with the Cheetahs finally starting to realise their potential after a fruitful tour of Australia and New Zealand.
The Reds have an opportunity to take control of their own destiny when the Brumbies travel to Brisbane in a couple of weeks, but a loss for the Queenslanders in either of their next two matches could allow the Brumbies to canter away with the conference.
True, the Brumbies are no certainties to win either of their next two matches, but they probably only need to win one to keep the Reds at bay.
The Aussie conference may be on a knife edge, but it is still tilting towards the capital.
Beating the Chiefs is a pretty tall order for the Reds. To their advantage they have had an extra week to rest and prepare.
Unfortunately for them, so have the Chiefs.
History seems to favour the visitors with the Reds having had the measure of the Chiefs in their last three clashes, two of which were contested in cow-bell territory.
But what good is history in the face of a firing Chiefs outfit at the top of their game?
The Chiefs have not dropped a game at home to foreign opposition since 2011 when they finished bottom of their conference.
The times they are a-changin’, and the Chiefs they are a-chargin’. Dare I even suggest that this could be a bloodbath?
There are no guarantees, only opportunities.
This weekend is scheduling some crucial match-ups that could prove decisive in the make-up of the conferences, with literally every match acting as a gauge for how the teams are travelling.
Don’t make other plans for this weekend!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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