Geelong will make it five from five with a comfortable win over the Western Bulldogs whilst Carlton will look to get their season up and running when they host Adelaide in Round 5 of AFL action.
Fremantle v Richmond – Patersons Stadium, 8:45pm* – Friday, April 26
*All times AEST
The Dockers’ good beginning to the season has been tarnished by two defeats in succession at the hands of Essendon and Hawthorn whilst the Tigers dropped their first match of the campaign to Collingwood last week.
The formguide isn’t clear for this one so I will go with the fact that Fremantle are good defensively and Richmond are not.
The Tigers are struggling to keep teams tied down and although their attack at times looks fluent, the Dockers have the capabilities of stifling that run.
Luke McPharlin’s return is a major positive for Ross Lyon whilst Damien Hardwick has handed a debut to high draft pick Nick Vlastuin but the loss of the assured and experienced Troy Chaplin and small defender Steve Morris may prove costly.
Prediction: Fremantle by 18.
GWS Giants v Gold Coast Suns – Startrack Oval (ACT), 1:45pm – Saturday, April 27
The battle of the expansion teams is sure to provide onlookers with a vast array of skilful and talented footballers.
The winner of this match will be the side who has more willingness at the contest and fitness to run out all four quarters, especially following the Giants’ capitulation in conceding 12 goals to Melbourne in the final term last week.
The Suns have been more than competitive in all four outings to date despite two heavy-ish defeats to Port Adelaide and Sydney and they really should be good enough to notch up their second win of the season.
Gary Ablett poses plenty of problems for the Giants and could have an enormous game after being slightly subdued in recent weeks and I just feel that the Suns have the edge in experience and ability at this point in time.
No doubt the Giants will hang around for the majority of the game but the Suns should come out on top in the end in what is likely to be a very entertaining game of football.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 14.
Carlton v Adelaide – MCG, 4:40pm – Saturday, April 27
The Blues are getting closer and closer to locking down Mick Malthouse’s game plan which was evident in their victory over West Coast last week.
That triumph is sure to ease the pressure that was mounting and an even more desperate and determined Carlton outfit is expected to be on parade at the MCG tomorrow when Adelaide come to town.
The Crows had an easy kill last week against the Bulldogs meaning confidence may be high but that contest was devoid of hard-fought football which forces me to lean the way of the Blues.
Eddie Betts is a big in and will only add to a dangerous forward line which saw Chris Yarran kick four last week, assisted by Jeff Garlett who also looked up for it.
Bernie Vince returns for the Crows but they have been quite underwhelming so far this year and I expect Carlton to make it two in a row and begin their push for a top-eight finish.
Prediction: Carlton by 22.
Western Bulldogs v Geelong – Etihad Stadium, 7:40pm – Saturday, April 27
This one doesn’t look good for the Bulldogs with an in-form and rampant Geelong side set to make a perfect start to 2013.
The Dogs were inept last week, kicking just four goals in their 52-point loss to the Crows, and this fixture appears to be a lot tougher for Brendan McCartney’s men.
Chris Scott and his Cats outfit were underestimated during preseason but all that trepidation from outsiders is now lost and the men from Kardinia Park are again a Premiership threat.
Geelong will be far too good with the likes of Joel Selwood, Mathew Stokes, Joel Corey and Steve Johnson etc. to continue their brilliant recent form.
James Kelly’s return offsets the loss of Paul Chapman to a hamstring injury whilst the Dogs have been further hampered by the absence of Ryan Griffen and Daniel Giansiracusa which does not bode well after Shaun Higgins, Bob Murphy, Easton Wood and Tory Dickson went down the week prior.
Mark this one down for the Cats and if they get away to an early lead, it could get quite ugly for the Doggies.
Prediction: Geelong by 40.
Port Adelaide v West Coast – AAMI Stadium, 7:45pm – Saturday, April 27
This is the last chance saloon for West Coast if they want to make the top four whereas the Power could join Essendon and most likely Geelong as the only undefeated sides remaining.
The Eagles have been extremely disappointing in winning just one match thus far whilst Port have surprised all before them to win four from four although they have had the comfort of a fairly easy early draw.
Nevertheless, Ken Hinkley’s men can only beat what’s in front of them and that again will be the message as they take on perhaps the most fancied of the sides they have played to date.
So many players in the black and teal are in career-best form and if that does not abate, then I feel they are up and about enough to edge the Eagles.
Beau Waters is a handy inclusion for West Coast whilst Paul Stewart is back for Port to add depth to a forward line that has already been firing.
West Coast have the team on paper to win this but that means nothing when exposed form is there for all to see and I suggest that the Power could quite possibly be too good at home.
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 12.
Brisbane v Melbourne – Gabba, 3.20pm – Sunday, April 28
There will be panic stations for whichever team loses this one after poor starts to the season from both Brisbane and Melbourne.
Michael Voss’ job could be in danger if the Lions drop this at home whilst the Demons, who did experience some joy with a win over the Giants last week, will fall even further behind the pack if they fail to salute.
Daniel Rich (shoulder) is a massive out for Brisbane as he could have exposed the Dees midfield whilst the loss of Pearce Hanley to suspension and Stefan Martin to an ankle problem are also seen as major absences.
Melbourne, however, lose key forward (and former Lion) Mitch Clark which will have a negative effect in the attacking 50 and they simply won’t kick enough goals to beat the Lions despite the home sides shortcomings of late.
Prediction: Brisbane by 32.
Hawthorn v North Melbourne – MCG, 4:40pm – Sunday, April 28
The Hawks are well and truly flying after three 40-plus wins over finals aspirants West Coast, Collingwood and Fremantle in their last three fixtures.
North got the season-first win they required last week over a hapless Brisbane but their quality is nowhere near what the Hawks have in their locker and I expect Alastair Clarkson’s side to send another message to the league.
Lance Franklin will kick goals against the Roos’ defence, following on from his 13 in this fixture last year, whilst Grant Birchall, Sam Mitchell, Cyril Rioli, Shaun Burgoyne, Jordan Lewis and co. will prove too much for the likes of Andrew Swallow, Ryan Bastinac, Daniel Wells and Jack Ziebell.
Hawks should win comfortably but it won’t go all their way as the Kangas have been competitive in all their losses, especially in the first half where they have made all the running.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 27.
Suggested multi-bet
Choose your own line with sportsbet.com.au
Carlton -11.5 ($1.81)
Port Adelaide 1-39 ($2.55)
Western Bulldogs +68.5 ($1.60)
Hawthorn -17.5 ($1.50)
Total: $11.07
Andrew Slevison
Roar Rookie
Just need Hawks by 3 goals... Bogga, don't see Melbourne going to NZ anytime soon considering St Kilda are playing games there next couple of years. Carlton and Port got the job done. Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn definite top 4 prospects. Reckon the Dons will drop off. I think Richmond are good enough to trouble some of those sides if they are up on the day. Beat Hawks by 10 goals last year!
Bogga
Guest
Richmond will struggle to make the 8, let alone top 4, even if they had beaten Freo. Top 4 will be Essendon, Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn. Richmond won't get within a bull's roar of any of those 4 teams. Essendon will falter late in the season Melbourne aren't trying to keep up with the pack, they're struggling for relevancy and survival. New Zealand Demons has a nice ring to it. Brisbane have plenty of problems themselves, they're lucky they're out of harms way up there and the media is distracted by the GC. Bulldogs usually perform well against the cats, but this is going to be a real belting. First time the cats have had more than 6 days break, I expect them to either start slowly or fade late, or both (yet still romp it in, 68.5 will be in danger) I don't think I'd be willing to bet against both Adelaide and West Coast this early in the season either. If either of them even glimpse last years' form, they'll easily account for their opponents.
Boy
Guest
Very good analysis. Fairly safe predictions. I'll predict the winner of freo vs Richmond will finish top 4, big game. Agree with macca, blues a 5 goal better team on the bigger mcg. Gold Coast to smash the giants and I reckon west coast will defy the form and knock off the power.
Macca
Guest
If the Carlton Adelaide game was at Etihad I would be worried but being at the MCG, Adelaide in so-so form and Bett's in plus Joseph out I think the predicted margin is about right.