Round 6 tips: Pies will bounce back, Cats and Dons to continue run

Collingwood should kick off Round 6 of the 2013 AFL season with a victory over St Kilda at the Etihad Stadium tonight.

Collingwood v St Kilda – Etihad Stadium, 7:50pm* – Friday, May 3
*All times AEST

Collingwood were extremely disappointing in their ANZAC Day loss to Essendon but expect them to get the job done against the Saints.

Much would have been spoken about at Pies training this week regarding their defensive deficiencies thus far, especially as they have conceded the fourth-highest amount of points in the league after five games.

A lot of opposition goals have come from Collingwood’s turnovers and poor performances at stoppages which are areas that Nathan Buckley targeted during the week, highlighted by his decision to bring in ruckman Jarrod Witts along with the returning Darren Jolly.

The sore point is the ACL injury to vital defender Alan Toovey.

Another topic that would have come up at the Lexus Centre would have been the fact their midfield has been ‘cheating’ according to Scott Pendlebury so expect a much more accountable effort against the Saints.

Scott Watters’ side were competitive against Sydney in Wellington last week but they do not have enough quality to get the score on the board, with skipper Nick Reiwoldt expected to do too much up forward.

St Kilda won’t go away until late in the game when the Pies, who haven’t lost to the Saints since Round 3 2010, get on a roll and make it a fairly comfortable win in the end.

Prediction: Collingwood by 32.

Essendon v GWS Giants – Etihad Stadium, 1:45pm – Saturday, May 4

The Dons are heavily favoured to make it six from six when they host the only winless team remaining in the Giants tomorrow.

A big win over Collingwood last Thursday will have Essendon primed for further successes and it will be no different when Kevin Sheedy brings his side to Etihad on Saturday afternoon.

Dyson Heppell, Jake Carlisle and Jason Winderlich have all succumbed to injuries or soreness but that won’t bother James Hird too much as he gets to put some game time into the likes of Leroy Jetta, Tayte Pears and Jake Melksham.

For the Giants, Setanta O’hAilpin will miss after kicking eight goals in two matches whilst key defender Phil Davis and young gun Lachie Whitfield are out with fitness issues as well but it will do nothing to change the result with the Dons having way too much firepower to run out easy winners.

Prediction: Essendon by 75.

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide – Blundstone Arena (Hobart), 2:10pm – Saturday, May 4

Many will expect North to follow-on from their near-miss in losing to Hawthorn by less than a kick last Sunday.

The Kangas have been extremely unlucky so far this season but can turn that around by knocking off the Power who are sitting pretty in second with five wins.

Ken Hinkley’s side completed a stirring comeback last week to beat West Coast after trailing by 41 points and that type of form can only filter through and create a winning culture within the group.

North have been knocking on the door in the opening five rounds for their one win but I fear that the Power are in good enough fettle to grab this one.

North have lost four of five third quarters this season which has hurt them and with the Power sublime in the second half last week, it could be a similar story on Saturday.

Andrew Swallow, Daniel Wells and Jack Ziebell will again lead the way for the Roos whilst Port’s stars include Kane Cornes, Chad Wingard, Ollie Wines and Brad Ebert but I am just leaning the way of the Power who represent great value and may be running on top of the ground a little bit more come the final quarter.

Prediction: Port Adelaide by 8.

Adelaide v Hawthorn – AAMI Stadium, 4:40pm – Saturday, May 4

Adelaide have been rocked by the season-ending injury to key forward Taylor Walker and I expect it to negatively affect the side, especially after coach Brenton Sanderson publicly stated that he does not trust some of his players.

The Crows’ forward 50 is devoid of any real marking quality now and they will have to rely on mid-sized and smaller attackers to kick winning scores if the inexperienced Josh Jenkins and Shaun McKernan do not fire.

In the Hawthorn camp, Cyril Rioli will miss a few months with a severe hamstring injury but they have enough depth and quality to overcome that absence and will be too good at AAMI Stadium.

Lance Franklin went without a goal last week and will be hungry to make amends in a match that will be won and lost with the output of the forward lines.

Both midfields will provide plenty of opportunities so it will come down to has the superiority in attack and I suggest that lies with the Hawks despite the fact they have lost 10 of their past 11 away to the Crows.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 21.

Gold Coast v Fremantle – Metricon Stadium, 7:40pm – Saturday, May 4

This is a very interesting affair, made so by the fact the Suns appear to be ahead of schedule, whilst the Dockers have some glaring omissions.

Gold Coast made it two wins from five games with a 44-point triumph over fellow expansion club GWS last week, led by six goals from Charlie Dixon and productive performances from Gary Ablett, Jarrod Harbrow and Jaeger O’Meara.

Freo fell in by a point against Richmond despite dominating for much of the contest and will be without the suspended Nat Fyfe and injured pair Kepler Bradley and Stephen Hill.

Last year, Gold Coast went down by just seven points to the Dockers at Metricon and I expect this one to be similarly tight but a side aspiring for the top four should really get the job done against a third-year side.

Prediction: Fremantle by 19.

Richmond v Geelong – MCG, 7:40pm – Saturday, May 4

The glaring stat here is that Richmond have not beaten Geelong since Round 9 2006 and I get the feeling this run of wins will continue for the Cats.

Chris Scott’s side are cruising along with five wins from five and that should stretch to six although it certainly will not be easy by any means.

The Tigers fought manfully to eventually lose by one point to Fremantle last week and although they will take a lot from that effort, the Cats will have too much class across the board.

Richmond get Troy Chaplin, Steven Morris and Jake King back, which are handy inclusions, but Geelong counter that with the returns of Paul Chapman and Tom Hawkins who will add depth up forward.

Damien Hardwick’s Tigers will need to again up the ante in terms of tackling and pressure if they want to beat the Cats but the likes of Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly and Steve Johnson will in the end prove a little too much for the Tigers to contain.

Prediction: Geelong by 14.

Sydney v Brisbane – SCG, 1:10pm – Sunday, May 5

The Swans will be far too good for Brisbane on Sunday and should run out fairly comfortable winners at the SCG despite travelling back from New Zealand.

The Sydney midfield of Josh Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Kieren Jack and Ryan O’Keefe will be far too much for the Lions to comprehend and I just cannot see where the Brisbane side will find a winner across all three areas of the game (defence, midfield and forward).

Brisbane were good enough to beat Melbourne at home last week but the reigning premiers propose a much more difficult encounter and they will straightforwardly continue their title defence with an expected home triumph over a side who have leaked the third most points in the competition.

Prediction:Sydney by 37.

Carlton v Melbourne – MCG, 3:20pm – Sunday, May 5

Carlton began the season with three losses but are primed to level the ledger by happily beating Melbourne at the MCG on Sunday.

The Blues got the job done against Adelaide last week to follow on from the win over West Coast in Perth and this should be much easier than those two.

Melbourne battled up in Brisbane but came up short, in the end by 28 points, but this will be more one-sided with the Blues set to record a big win.

The fleet-footed forward line of Chris Yarran, Jeff Garlett and Eddie Betts will run rings around the Demons defenders whilst Jarrad Waite is a handy in which should offset the loss of Bryce Gibbs to a hamstring.

The Demons have lost Mark Jamar and Jack Watts to injury and I fear it could be another shellacking for Mark Neeld’s side.

Prediction: Carlton by 60.

West Coast v Western Bulldogs – Patersons Stadium, 4:40pm – Sunday, May 4

The Eagles threw it away against Port last week so anticipate them coming out with plenty to prove after a dismal beginning to 2013.

The Bulldogs were impressive against Geelong, going down by 21 points, but travelling to Perth with such an inexperienced line-up will be way too much to ask.

The exciting Nic Naitanui should play, returning with midfielder Matt Rosa, whilst Sharrod Wellingham makes his West Coast debut. In the Doggies camp, Brett Goodes has been suspended but his absence will not do too much to alter this result.

The Eagles really need a confidence-boosting win, and although I will stop short of saying they will get it easy against the Dogs, they will run out winners in the end to make it four in a row against the Bulldogs.

Prediction: West Coast by 34.

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