Only one month to go until June’s three vital World Cup qualifiers for the Socceroos and already my fingernails are down to stubs.
It’s tough to know what we ought to make of Australia’s chances in this group. The top two get a direct place at Brazil 2014. We currently sit in third place, just a point behind Jordan, level with Oman and one ahead of Iraq.
Whether we’re worthy of that spot, higher or lower is open to a debate, which could go on forever.
In many ways, ending up in third at the end of the qualifiers might be the worst possible result as we’ll be forced to endure another three and possibly five months of waiting for the play-offs to run their course (and after experiencing what I like to call “waiting lounge hell” since 26 March, that is not something I want to suffer through again).
When Australia’s group for the final round of qualifying was drawn, many would have penciled in an early booking to Brazil… perhaps even thinking it would be sewn up by now.
Riding on the coattails of Australia’s sublime effort to qualify for Germany 2010, and judging by the reactions of many to our loss to Jordan and draws with Oman, qualification was seen as a fait accompli save for the inevitable slip-ups against Japan.
In many ways, I was such observer; I was wary, having seen what some of the Middle Eastern teams are capable of in past matches, but I thought we’d be able to negotiate our way out of the tricky stage and lock ourselves in with a game or two to spare. In light of what’s happened so far, that looks just about impossible.
Drew away with Oman. Drew at home with Japan. Lost away to Jordan. Won away against Iraq. Drew at home with Oman. Coupled with a couple of surprise results in other games, these have us sitting precariously in third spot. Doomsayers, jaded by our success in Asia since 2007, are wailing. However, the question has to be asked, is all lost?
The answer is a resounding no. Not by a long shot. There are a large number of possibilities which could eventuate (729 to be exact… not including the varying potential impacts of goal difference) and funnily enough I have not found the time to work them all out, however it’s simple to get a rough idea of what needs to be done.
It is almost unthinkable that we could beat Japan, based on current form. But the Socceroos have an excellent recent record against the Samurai Blue and Japan might be panicking a bit after their last-start loss to Jordan, a match they were expected to canter home from with three points and World Cup qualification tucked away.
The odds are still highly in Japan’s favour but beat them and just about anything could happen. Think of the euphoria if that were to eventuate…
Enough of that euphoria. If we did win, that would lift us up into second with two games to go. Another win out of our two games at home to Jordan and Iraq – or even two draws – would get us there regardless of other results.
That is the dream situation to be in. Is it likely? Definitely not. But it is possible and given our history with the Japanese, not out of the question.
More likely is that we draw with Japan, and even more likely is that we lose to them. Either result would mean that we have to win at least one and probably both of the remaining two games to finish in the top two and qualify directly.
A second loss would just about kill us off completely, as would two draws, and even a win and a draw would be tough to rely upon as other results would become critical.
Adding to the difficulty is the sheer unpredictability of this group. Japan are by far and away the best team on paper and on form, but even they aren’t immune to a shock with a seven-goal turnaround resulting in a 2-1 loss to Jordan following the first match between the two teams during which Japan thumped six unanswered goals past the hapless Jordanian defence.
Upsets by other teams against Japan cannot be discounted, especially if they draw with or beat us and qualify early.
The difficulty for the average punters among us is working out who the biggest threat out of Jordan, Oman and Iraq is. One would suggest Jordan given they beat both Australia and Japan and currently occupy second spot.
Unfortunately it’s not as easy as that. Jordan beat Australia who went on to defeat Iraq who then went on to best…Jordan. Perhaps the closeness of these four teams can best be explained by the fact that out of the eight matches between them so far, four have ended up in draws.
And this closeness is what could just get Australia over the line. We are the only one of these four teams who don’t have a negative goal difference.
Jordan, despite their second spot and two massive wins over Australia and Japan, still have a six-goal deficit to overcome…that loss to Japan last year could come back and haunt them. We also have a game in hand over Oman and Jordan, currently the closest to us on the table, and two out of our last three games at home.
This can only be a good thing for the team as they face the likelihood that they will be faced with a do-or-die six-pointer against Jordan on 11 June. Ideally we’ll have shocked Japan and put ourselves in the box seat by then but you never know. Here’s hoping for the best for our Socceroos.
Nothing’s certain in football at the best of times, and in this see-sawing battle for second place and an automatic ticket to Brazil, certainty has just about vanished.
ian
Guest
Rob, Not only are you wrong but you were proven to be wrong. Japan 1 Aust 1 .great result. By the way your predictions are as good as your spelling.
Sleemo
Guest
Kennedy, assuming he continues to play and remains injury-free, should come off the bench against Japan - obviously our tactics will change a bit when this happens but he'll cause nightmares for the Japanese defenders. He'll do the same against Jordan and Iraq but I'd say he'll be best utilised off the bench at least for the Jordan game and hopefully by then he'll be ready to start against Iraq on 18 June. Playing three games in two weeks, which is something only one of the other teams has to do, will be tricky and so the players will have to be well-managed over those two weeks, particularly around the Jordan game which is the most vital. At least two in a row are in Australia and all three are in similar time zones. What I fear will be a possible undoing factor is the speed of all three teams...if they get behind our defenders they could cause the Socceroos some serious trouble, as we saw against Oman. Here's hoping Neill's experience is enough to see that problem off - and it only makes the guessing game of who will get the call-up to partner him more intriguing.
Greg
Guest
Agree with that Ben, we generally look very slow these days and need a better mix of young and old to get results. Over 3 games there is sure to be injuries and changes in tactics form game to game and during games to present opportunities to the up and comers, specially with a guy like Bresciano needing to be managed very carefully and Josh Kennedy unlikely to have enough football behind him to lead the line in all 3 games. The long term view is that the Socceroos should be aiming to peak for the 2014 World Cup and 2015 Asian Cup, and while there is a risk that younger players may fail to step up in June if they arent played more in the full strenght team than they have been over the last 2.5 years we will be unlikely to do much at Brazil 14 (assuming we get there) or the pointy end of Australia 2015. That said a supporters job is to support and we all have to support whoever is picked to the hilt by packing the Melbourne game on June 11, go Socceroos !!!
Ben Talintyre
Roar Rookie
Young guys have got to get a run. The older players may be our best players but they're ageing
Sleemo
Guest
Sleemo
Guest
I agree with you Greg in that the Jordan game is the most important – it’s a real six-pointer. In fact I would say that if we were going to win one and lose one of the first two games, it would be better for us to lose to Japan and beat Jordan. That way we’ve overcome what is probably our biggest threat for second spot, and kept our faith in our own hands – a draw against Iraq on the last day would probably be enough to get us through given Jordan’s terrible GD. On the other hand, beating Japan would be good for the confidence, but then losing to Jordan straight after would put them back in front of us each with a game to play, forcing us to either draw (at a minimum) or beat Iraq on the last match day and then still have to hope that Jordan don’t win against Oman in their game played a few hours later. I also agree with you in that it’s not wise that FIFA or the AFC (don’t know who has responsibility here) have scheduled the last-round matches at different times. This could potentially provide Jordan and Oman with a massive advantage in knowing exactly what they have to do to get through (although collusion might not be a realistic possibility if both teams are still in with a shot at second, given that only one of them will get direct qualification and the other will have to go through the playoffs…surely both would rather risk losing if it means trying for direct qualification, as opposed to merely trying to stay alive and snatch the third-place playoff spot). Three draws would possibly be enough to qualify directly! Assuming just about every other result goes our way, that is ;). As I alluded to above, it’s a tight battle between the four teams shooting out for second who have each played four games. Taking out the results of the games involving Japan shows just how close it is: - Oman have 6 points with a GD of +1; Aus 5 (0); Iraq 5 (0); Jordan 4 (-1). - 4 of the 8 games have been draws; - the other 4 games have all been decided by one goal; - Aus are the only team to have won away from home. Basically this shows that every other team can beat any other on its day. Three things which weigh heavily in our favour are therefore: - our extra game in hand over Oman and Jordan; - our two remaining games against teams from this group are at home; and - Jordan’s, and to a lesser extent Oman’s and Iraq’s, negative goal differences versus our GD of 0. It’s going to be quite a June.
Greg
Guest
I should add that the last match in Sydney against Iraq on June18 is being played a few hours before the other match between Jordan and Oman rather than as a simultaneous kickoff, hopefully FIFA and the AFC are able to reschedle the matches even if it means a late night - ie 9pm - start in Sydney and an afternoon - ie 2pm - start in the middle East (40 degree heat normally at that time of year ? ) if there is potential for manipulation of the Oman versus Jordan match to get one team through in second and the other into the playoff. Again it shouldnt matter if we take care of business but will be a possible factor if we dont !
Greg
Guest
A very good article Sleemo, and pretty close to the mark on the various outcomes (as you mention there are 729 plus to consider) Although the Japan game in Tokyo on June 4 will be important for building confidence the result wont be as important as in the key match will be vs Jordan on June 11 in Melbourne. Here's why - If we LOSE to Jordan on June 11 Jordan will be on 10 pts with a home match against Oman on June 18 to finish off, while - Australia would be on 6 points and unable to qualify directly if we lost to Japan one week earlier, OR, - Australia would be on 7 points (behind Jordan by 3 pts) and quite likely unable to qualify directly if we drew versus Japan on June 4 as if other results dont fall our way Iraq could be on 11 points or Oman could be on 9 points heading into the last set of matches on June 18, OR, - Australia would be on 9 points (behind Jordan by 1 pt) if we defeat Japan on June 4, and we would need to defeat Iraq on June 18 in Sydney and hope Jordan dont defeat Oman to clinch the direct qualification place ahead of us If we DRAW against Jordan on June 11 Jordan will be on 8 pts with a home match against Oman on June 18 to finish off, while - Australia would be on 7 points (behind Jordan by 1 pt) if we lost to Japan on June 4, and be eliminated from direct qualification if Iraq is on 11 points heading into the last set of matches on June 18, or be depending on a draw between Jordan and Oman on June 18 if Oman is on 9 points heading into the June 18 matches, OR! - Australia would be on 8 points (level with Jordan) if we drew with Japan on June 4, and needing to defeat Iraq on June 18 in Sydney to qualify directly if Iraq are on 11 points heading into the June 18 matches, or having to rely on Oman not defeating Jordan on June 18 if Oman are on 9 points heading into the June 18 matches, OR, - Australia would be on 10 points if we defeated Japan on June 4, and needing to defeat Iraq on June 18 in Sydney, if Iraq is on 11 points or Oman is on 9 points heading into the last set of matches on June 18 Hopefully the Socceroos can WIN against Jordan in Melbourne on June 11, as this MUCH improves their chances - Australia would be on 9 points (2 ahead of Jordan) if we lose to Japan on June 4 and masters of their own fate even if Iraq is on 11 points or Oman is on 9 points heading into the last set of matches, and could potentially qualify with a draw against Iraq on June18 in Sydney taking us to 11 pts if the other results go our way - Australia would be on 10 points (unable to be overtaken by Jordan) if we draw with Japan on June 4 and masters of our own fate, with a draw on June 18 potentially enough to get us through with 11 pts, as always the risk is that Iraq could be on 11 pts or Oman on 9pts heading into the last set of matches on June 18 - Australia would be on 12 points (unable to be overtaken by Jordan or Oman) if we defeated Japan on June 4, with a draw against Iraq on June 18 in Sydney enough for us to qualify directly, and we would be able to qualify directly after the Jordan match on June 18 (and be able to lose to Iraq in Sydney on June 18) if Iraq dont win BOTH of their matches on June 4 (away against Oman) or June 11 (home against Jordan) In summary Australia will still qualify directly if we win the two home matches (June 11 against jordan in melbourne and June 18 against Iraq in Sydney) while a win against Jordan means a draw or loss against Iraq may be enough. Anything against Japan would be a small bonus. Personally I think we are a very good chance of direct qualification despite performing poorly through the campaign so far. if we fall into the playoffs i doubt we will make it to Brazil, but we wouldnt deserve to. Lets pack out the Docklands Stadium on June 11 against Jordan and cheer the boys on, then hopefully another full house will see us get the result we need in Sydney on June 18 against Iraq to qualify !
Pete
Guest
Whatever the final outcome of the qualifiers, one thing is self evident and beyond dispute. This whole campaign and, even more important, the preparations for it, have been a complete ballsup. Years were wasted since 2010, when new blood should have been tested, younger players ought to have been built into the squad, ready to be fully fledged warriors, come the qualifiers - and weren't. Now, we are stuck with what we have and it isn't pretty. However, once the qualifiers - and hopefully, the finals in Brazil, too, IF we get that far - are out of the way, there ought to be a short period of very hardnosed reflection and examination in an effort to find out who are those who must bear the inevitable burden of blame and what needs to be done, immediately, so as to avoid a repetition of the current parlous situation four years hence.
Alan
Roar Guru
To be honest, I don't think Australia will qualify. Jordan and Iraq will be great value in the TAB. Worth a flutter that's for sure.
Franko
Guest
I hear what your saying but just couldn't handle missing the WC. 4 years is too long to wait. Hopefully we get through on the back of Kruse, Oar etc. which inspires Holger to play the youngsters from here on in.
Max Weber
Roar Pro
And if we DON'T get there, Holger most definitely has to be sacked. The idea that Asia is must harder than we thought it would be once we first joined the AFC is, in the main, the FFA trying to save their own skin. If we can't beat Jordan at home, we don't deserve to go to the World Cup.
Jack
Guest
Ha ha too true, the reality of our situation is if we don't qualify a few things happen 1 holger goes ( thank god) 2. There will be a push for younger player and we will have loads of internationals against teams who have qualified for world cup. The likes of Lowry Leckie Bulut and co spring to mind. Established players like mgowan and oar can become regulars. This will all be in preparation for 2015 Asia cup. Or we sneak in 1. Holger stays 2. We get smashed with oldest team to ever play at a world cup 3. The oldies stick around for 2015 Asia cup I want to watch us in Brazil but if we don't make it the walls won t fall down could be good in the long run
rob
Guest
IF we get there IF... Holget has to be sacked. WE need to take a young team and prepare for the sian cup and and beyond.
Fletcher
Guest
The road that is littered with potholes is most certainly not suitable for geriatrics in wheelchairs.
Franko
Guest
*Cue
Franko
Guest
Que some T.Cahill magic please....
Sleemo
Guest
Author's note - sixth paragraph ought to read "South Africa 2010" rather than "Germany 2010" - my mistake.