Warren Gatland’s not going to Australia to shake hands, have a few frosties and get a tan. Oh no – he’s off down under to win. But what are his tactics?
Well, he’s given himself a fair go – he’s done little else but think about this for a year. He got himself a nice little sabbatical from his regular duties with Wales and he’s been trooping round the circuit making notes and forming his masterplan.
Off the Pitch
Gatland knows that sport, especially big sport, is played in the mind, before the game, as much as with the body during it. Mind games can be very effective in de-stabilising a team.
This is especially true with young, egotistical, testosterone-fuelled minds. This can be more so when the press and the public wade in as well as the players. The Australians are particularly good at the wind-up.
Gatland will have devised tactics to cope with this sort of thing. That doesn’t mean to say that he won’t be affected. It’s just that he’ll have mechanisms outlined to mitigate the worst of it.
He is a New Zealander, after all, he’s met Australians before.
Chances are he’ll have rules in place about players dealing with the media and rules in place for the media dealing with the players. Maybe even got rules about what happens if the rules are broken, too.
Similarly, he’ll have planned the hotels, travel arrangements and medical backups meticulously.
In all likelihodd he’ll have trusted people in place as escalation measures. Tour manager Andy Irvine is no stranger to Lions Tours – he’s done three of team.
Admin in place, protection measures in force.
On the Pitch
I don’t think there’s much point in looking too deeply into this, since the Lions haven’t trotted out yet. But the squad betrays some traits:
1. It’s mostly Welsh.
2. It’s big and chunky.
3. It’s young, lean and hungry.
So, that’s likely to mean:
1. They’ll play like the Welsh a bit.
2. They’ll be ‘competitive’ up front.
3. They’ll be ambitious to win.
But that’ll be mediated by:
4. There’s plenty of English, Irish and Scots about too.
5. There’s plenty of speed, especially in the backs and the loose.
6. There’s a whole lot of touring Lions experience.
Which is likely to mean:
4. It’s a Lions team not a Welsh XV.
5. They’ll not be hanging about, given the chance to run.
6. The youth will not be getting carried away, they’ll be mitigated by wiser heads.
So, with all that in mind, Gatland has picked a squad that looks like the Lions will be aiming to bully the Wallabies with a massive pack and a big backline.
They will want to run over the Aussies, to confront them at every opportunity, to win the contest at the impact area. They won’t want to be running around the corners, but they will do if presented with the chance.
It’s a squad built for smashing an opponent with traditional rugby, focusing on forward-power, game management and tactical kicking.
Gatland wants a fast, mobile, ‘fetching’ six, seven and eight. Probably because the breakdown is such a strength of the Aussies and the Lions will need to nullify that area.
And they’ll need to stomp on Genia too, so nous is handy.
Gat will play:
– A big front five.
– Ten-man rugby, a ball-holding offence and a possession-retrieving defence.
– Two sevens and a fast eight.
– Big, hard, blitzing backs.
– The two big Welsh lads on the wings, both 2m tall and over 100 kg. Fast and mean with it.
– Tuilangi is a battering ram so he’ll be in, rather than Brian O’Driscoll.
– Phillips is huge, too, so he’s worth a start.
Remember, it wasn’t Gatland’s Wales – Howley’s Wales lost the last four times to Australia recently.
And they’ll be all the better for having the non-Welsh with them.
The Scots will bring the ‘keep it tight and be patient’ bit that got them a 9-6 win and perhaps was what the Welsh lacked.
The Irish will bring the panache and bonhomie to make sure everyone enjoys it.
The English will bring their own brand of superiority and confidence, that annoys everyone, but spectacularly annoys Australians.
For what it’s worth, here’s what I reckon will be Gatland’s Lions XV:
Jenkins
Hartley
A Jones
AW Jones
Richie Gray
Warburton
Tipuric
Faletau
Phillips
Sexton
Roberts
Tuilangi
North
Cuthbert
Halfpenny
Bakkies
Guest
Tom Croft was sublime for Leicester against Quins yesterday. I wouldn't rule him out on Australian pitches when the game gets loose.
Gavin Melville
Roar Pro
Honestly, just have a look around The Roar. "3-0, I reckon, Bruce" all over the shop. The Lions have great depth. There was a lot of soul-searching for the coaches/selectors to get down to a squad of 37. There's a lot of power in the front row, but I reckon the Welsh lads just shade it. I found it difficult not to see Scotland's Ryan Grant or Euan Murray in there. Murray was out in SA in 2009, so I thought that his experience might have shaded it. He gets a lot of ball-carries in too. At the moment, one can't see who's favourite to be in, just have to go on 6N and club form. Club form is always tricky as they're not up against International class forwards, so it can often flatter to deceive. Much the same in the 2nd row. Richie Gray's been injured for a bit and didn't look too clever when he was playing, but he's huge, so he's on the plane. But any 2 from Gray, AWJones, O'Connell, Evans & Parling would do me in a test team. And the back row looked the toughest to pick of the whole squad. Two 6N captains left behind in Chris Robshaw & Kelly Brown. Might as well put the welsh lads in. They looked pretty fierce against England last time out. Tom Croft's the top Lions Test scorer on the plane though. So I expect the Welsh to be pencilled in now, but that's unlikely to be the end of it. I can't see these blokes saying "fair enough, these Welsh blokes are better than me". Nah, they're here to play for The Firsts. Much the same with the backs selection, except there's less of them.
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
Haven't heard THAT many 3-0 to be honest. Before the SR season started I reckon most Aussies I know or read we're quite pessimistic actually: poor EOY tour, most don't like RD etc. Sure SR has given some optimism back and I would say the average wallabies supporter would put his money on a 2-1 series win, which is fair enough as supporters of the n3 team in the world playing on home soil. Personally, am still on the fence as I was quite impressed by what I saw during the 6N (clearly, I have not seen games of this intensity here for a while). Plus the 5-0 over Wales in 2011 is verrrry flattering for the wallabies.
Gavin Melville
Roar Pro
"wobbly is prob the first aus supporter to state that the wallabys will win and win easily" No way! Most Aussies I've heard think much the same. Without much thought or basis in fact, 3-0 is bandied about willy-nilly, usually as a sidebar to chatting about which team the Aussies should pick. Not may seem to know much about the Lions, BOD excepted. If you don't know the teams, then how can you know the score? If you don't think the Welsh are good enough to get 11 in the Lions XV, it might be worth seeking out the tape of the 6N Wales v England decider. Tough guys, the Welsh, physically & mentally. BBA makes some good points about key positions and depth of bench, too. There's more than 15 blokes in a rugby team these days.
Roarer
Guest
You guys keep saying that, but have to resort to last minute penalties and forward pass tries to win. Can't be that easy. If the Lions have any chance, they need as many Welsh in there. Like it or not, they are better in most positions than their home nations friends. The only positions, I am thinking that will go elsewhere are 10, 5 and 13.
Jutsie
Guest
wobbly is prob the first aus supporter to state that the wallabys will win and win easily. most aus supporters have suggested that picking so many welsh players may work in aus' advantage considering the mental edge we have over the last few years but no one else has suggested its a foregone conclusion.
BBA
Guest
As a neutral who is really looking forward to this series, I do find it amusing that so many Wallaby supporters consider that if the Lions team is Welsh heavy that the result is not only a foregone conclusion, that the Wallabies will win very convincingly. This does not seem to be borne out by recent results, which all have been close. there are a number of factors which may be positive for the Lions: Gatland is a better and more experienced coach than Howley. It is likely that the Welsh in the side will be more motivated to win because of the losses last year, conversely the Wallabies, if their supporters are any guide may be somewhat complacent. Some of the likely non Welsh players will be in key positions The Lions side should have better depth and experience of teh bench then the Welsh For the first test, the Wallabies will have played no warm up games, so combinations and copordination may not be where they would like them to be. So even if there was a high Welsh component, to the match test day team I consider it unlikely this will be an "easy" game.
Wobbly
Guest
11 welsh in starting 15 - I very much doubt and I reckon the Wallabies would take them easily.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
What I find perplexing is this reference to 10 man rugby when Sexton, the favourite to start in the 10 jersey, is a completely different player to either Dan Biggar or Rhys Priestland.