Robbie Deans has given us an indication of his core Wallabies to play the Lions in the upcoming tour, and after careful study, here are five major points of discussion about the squad.
I don’t want to ignore Super Rugby and subsequently haven’t written a whole lot about the Lions tour yet. But a squad selection is justification enough to let my mind wander into speculation and imagination.
1. The second row for Australia is going to be outgunned by the Lions
I just don’t think there’s anything that can be done about it either.
The selections of James Horwill and Rob Simmons are justified to me and probably most people.
I don’t think Sitaleki Timani is the third best in Australia but Hugh McMeniman is still injured and Kane Douglas really only just shades him. Hugh Pyle is probably the form lock in Australia right now but is too much of a bolter for a Lions tour; I’m hoping he’s given a chance in a squad later this year.
The problem: even if my preferred lock duo were available – Horwill and McMeniman – we would probably be at a disadvantage come lineout time.
They’d be able to match the physicality fairly well but aren’t jumping specialists. Timani will probably be picked by Deans and presents the same problem although I think he’s a weaker ball runner than McMeniman in reality.
The other option is Simmons. If he partners Horwill, our lineout becomes much more effective but he’s not strong in the scrum or around the park.
He’s tried to up the ante in his physical game but is a bit of a Brodie Retallick there – more bark than bite.
The second row is going to be a Lions advantage.
2. James O’Connor has the rail run to the line for the 10 jersey or Robbie Deans is playing one of the best mind games in Lions Tour history
My ears pricked up during the press conference announcement when Deans said, “[Quade Cooper] will get the opportunity to play against the Lions” – referring to the Lions midweek match against the Reds.
Initially, I thought he was admitting he’s been left out only to be guaranteed selection in the group of six*. Really he was basically saying Quade Cooper has to dominate in the remaining Super Rugby games and then against the Lions in a weak Reds side to make the team.
*We really need a nickname for the still-to-be-named group of six players. The Mind-games Six? The Six on the Edge? The Paratroopers Six?
The alternative, and one that appeals to me greatly, is that Deans is playing some smoke and mirrors to make the Lions prepare for one sort of Wallabies attack and then unleash Cooper on them later on.
That’s probably not the truth but I’m going to hope it is. Really, Cooper is the best fly-half we have.
The reality is probably found in this Deans quote: “None of our five-eighths have had consistent time at international level in recent years, which is frustrating to us… James [O’Connor] has got that opportunity.”
Whether it was meant to sound that way or not it appears to be a coronation into the number 10 jersey for O’Connor.
3. I have a feeling players in the Paratroopers Six will figure significantly in the series
For instance, it’s almost guaranteed that a reserve halfback will be on the bench but there was only once chosen in the initial squad. One of Nic White, Nick Phipps or Luke “Bolt-From-The-Blue” Burgess will at least be chosen to warm the pine.
If James O’Connor’s sternum plays up and the team has been planning with Berrick Barnes at 15 – where he has spent a fair bit of time for the Wallabies in recent times – Cooper could be named in the Paratroopers Six and rushed right into the starting side.
That would be much easier to do than the other way around because of his relationship with Will Genia.
I think Benn Robinson and James Slipper have a good chance to be the starting props. But a specialist for either side of the scrum (Dan Palmer or Greg Holmes) could get game time in the event of an injury to one of these already chosen props.
Ben Alexander and Sekope Kepu are versatile and suited to the bench because of their athleticism, so a later inclusion could leap-frog them.
The other most obvious – to me and a lot of rugby minds, which may not necessarily mean Deans – involvement would be if Hugh McMeniman was healthy and showed any glimmer of his early season form. His drop zone would be right above the game day 23.
4. The Wallabies are going to be great in the back row
The injury of Wallabies legend George Smith was enough to make a lot of people unhappy. I’m unhappy for him, but don’t think it’s a huge impact on our ability to win the series.
My belief is that nostalgia or respect has earned Smith more kudos in people’s minds as much as he’s earned it on the field.
Don’t get me wrong – he’s been very good. I just think Michael Hooper has been a force to be reckoned with and hasn’t dropped his form in a single match this year.
He shows a nose for the ball, especially when it’s near his own line, he doesn’t infringe often and has remarkable speed and wonderful hands.
Liam Gill has been excellent this year, and was probably better than Hooper in the first month but not by much. Since then he’s been shaded round after round by Hooper.
Smith has had a wonderful veteran presence this year, knows a lot of the rucking dark arts and has some ball handling skills. But he gives away a lot of penalties and hasn’t shown anywhere near Hoopers impact running the ball.
Michael Hooper is the all-round package Australia has been looking for to lead us in this series.
I think he’ll be the best rugby player in Australia besides Will Genia in two years’ time.
I haven’t even covered the rest of the back row yet.
Dave Dennis selection isn’t a shock, but isn’t fantastic. He’s not strong enough.
The other selections make me smile – Scott Higginbotham is on a huge upswing, Wycliff Palu is playing well if not at career best and Ben Mowen is a workhorse.
Whatever mixture of Tom Croft, Sean O’Brien, Sam Warburton, Toby Faletau and Justin Tipuric are deployed against us we should have an edge if everyone plays to form.
5. Israel Folau is earning his pay-check
Before, during and after the squad announcement I noticed that almost every journalist I follow on Twitter was breaking the news of the squad selection with Israel Folau as the headline.
Nearly every person I know personally with an interest in rugby was discussing Folau’s selection.
Just about all of the television news that covered the Wallabies squad announcement lead the story with talk about Israel Folau’s selection.
People love this guy. He’s a drawcard and earning his paycheck in terms of rugby exposure many times over.
Cooper is the only personality in rugby that generates a level of buzz in the same ball park as Folau and that’s currently because he’s not been selected.
People will probably lament Jesse Mogg not being in this squad but I think the number of people making a case that Folau shouldn’t be there are few. His on-field play is matching the off-field hype.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Honestly, I think people talk about Murray's physicality simply because he looks a bit like Mike Phillips. I know that sounds ridiculous, but I've never even seen Murray threaten to hand-off and bowl over a back row forward like I've seen Phillips do. He's not even that big either. A few seasons ago I thought Warburton was going to be a great, but injuries etc. Long-term I see him in a kind of Richard Hill 6 role (although without the same skill set) - just a workaholic. I was shocked by the absence of Best, but I'm quite content that Hartley and Youngs are there. I've really warmed to the pair. Personally I would have preferred Wood over Robshaw. I was gutted he wasn't named.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
My point exactly. Well played, sir.
Spelling!
Guest
Loved the article, well done Elisha. One small thing .. Folau earns a 'pay-cheque', not a 'pay-check'. ... Waiting for lightning to strike me ...
Mike
Guest
Well yes, he had Gill on the bench, but I believe he substituted him at 6 in each game, so I wasn't thinking of him in a fetcher role, but fair point.
Bakkies
Guest
All through the 4 Nations last year Deans had a fetcher on the bench.
Mike
Guest
Riccardo, I agree. I don't doubt Timani's talent, but I want to see him putting in effort to match that talent. Douglas and Simmons have worked their backsides off this season to fix defects in their game and put in maximum effort - I would much rather that. And yes, gutys like Pyle are starting to push their claims - Timani has limited time. I have to concede that Timani does put in at scrum time, but the locks' most important and least glamorous work is at the ruck, where he often seems to be just going through the motions. Cheika might be the key - drop him like he did with Robinson. It might be wake-up call he needs.
Riccardo
Guest
Hi Mike. That's probably fair. I just don't rate Timani and I note even you have preferred Douglas to him in a post below. While he's raw an argument could also be mounted for Pyle who has shown good form of late. I'll concede there were moments last year for Timani and that maybe denotes some improvement but the Wallaby 2nd row is going to be tested by the Lions unit and inaccuracy or going missing is not going to help Australia's cause. I have also debated with KPM on issues relevant to the All Blacks where his unsubstantiated assertions regarding players like the Smiths or Robbie Fruean, for example, have been debunked only for him to cling steadfastly to an erroneous position, not that I don't enjoy the humourous interplay. Perhaps I should have better worded my riposte.
Colin N
Guest
expathack, Fair point about Gray, it's just that his form has been awful this season (although he didn't join the greatest club to be honest) so that's why I have him on the bench as he could be a very useful impact sub if he does well enough on tour. Ben, I don't disagree with those selections. My thought regarding Heaslip was that I was very disappointed by how he performed in the Six Nations, although that could have been down to the decision to award him the captaincy (I thought that was a shocker of a decision by Kidney). Agree about Care. I like Murray but he's neither here nor there. Everyone talks about his physicality but I'm not sure I see it myself, particularly when comparing him to Phillips. Re: Warburton, I rated him at the 2011 RWC as mentioned somewhere else but his form has suffered due to injuries. I think that me and you both rate Tipuric as the better and in form openside at the moment but to be fair, Warburton was outstanding against England in March. However, on Australian soil, I just see Tipuric as the better option. Also, as an aside, two of my favourites for captaincy (Robshaw and Best) didn't even make the squad!
Mike
Guest
Oh I see, you are still sore over previous exchanges and have been trying to create a fight over a throw away comment about Alexander. Sorry, Ben, your problems are your own and I can't help.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
I would have thought it's obvious: making comments on things you don't really have a grasp of - your comment on Alexander being a case in point. You don't actually really debate rugby at all or offer any real analysis. You just tag on sarcastic comments on to the end of other people's stuff or try and challenge people, offering nothing yourself. Have fun.
Mike
Guest
No, why would I be talking about London time on an Australian blog? And what is "Mr European Rugby" all about?
Mike
Guest
JBJ, that's not how I saw the game. The Tahs seemed to have run out of ideas when Barnes came on, and he sparked a burst of creativity. His kicks were well chosen, and he mixed up his passing targets. Play became very loose which is what the Tahs needed - Brumbies had the Tahs' phasing sorted until then.
Red Kev
Guest
Sneaky Six - coming in the back door like the dirty little b... they are. Although McKay's Wallaby Six-Pack is pretty catching.
expathack
Guest
And it looks like I've read the signs right, as I see now that Cully has come up with pretty much the exact same side (bar Tomane for Cummins) http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-news/barnes-storming-efforts-could-have-him-in-starting-side-20130520-2jwgk.html Given the eerie way he seems to channel Robbie, I think you can start nailing this starting XV on now.
expathack
Guest
Ben/Colin From an Australian perspective, in terms of whom I'd be most afraid of, I reckon you're bang on with picking Youngs at halfback. He's the only one of the 3 that have caused us problems in the past. The ever-present threat of him running from the base will open up the midfield even more for Roberts/Tuilagi. But I reckon you should swap Gray in there for Evans. He was pretty average in the 6N but his extra height would seriously stuff Australia's already precarious lineout.
Ben.S
Roar Guru
Actually I've thought about this a bit more. I'd go: 1. Healy, 2. Hartley, 3. Jones, 4. Evans, 5. O'Connell, 6. Croft, 7. Tipuric, 8. Heaslip; 9. Youngs, 10. Secton, 11. North, 12. Roberts, 13. Tuilagi, 14. Bowe, 15. Halfpenny 16. Vunipola, 17. T. Youngs, 18. Cole, 19. Gray, 20. O'Brien, 21. Phillips, 22. Farrell, 23. Kearney I think Hibbard played well in the 6N, but I have a feeling that he's more suited to wet NH grounds than dry hard Australian track. Hartley played really well against the Boks last summer, and he has a good off-loading game whereas Hibbard carries with his nose to the ground. I also like the option of Tom Youngs off the bench (How wrong was I about him?!). I know where you're coming from re: Croft and Tipuric, but I think Croft could really dominate the re-start area, and his support lines and pace in tandem with Tipuric would really threaten the Wallabies. I also think that there's enough carriers in Healy, Hartley, Heaslip, North and the midfield which would negate the absence of O'Brien. I think it's ridiculous that Care wasn't selected, as I feel he'd be a great bench option. I notice that neither of us went for Warburton...
Jonny Boy Jnr
Guest
I'm sorry but I just think selecting Barnes at 10 is plain 'throwing the towel in'. There was a moment in the last 10 minutes when there was a 3 man overlap for the Tahs when they were on their own 22 and he kicked without looking. We need someone whose first instinct is to attack with ball in hand and not ignore opportunities. I'm happy for Barnes to be on the bench in case one of the attacking 10's starts to lose a bit of control but I really don't think we're going to win this series kicking every time we're not in the oppossition 22. Not against the British Lions
Ben.S
Roar Guru
This time of night as in 15.49 in South London? Have a day off, Mr European Rugby.
Mike
Guest
Oh plenty of other options I do assure you Ben. Although, probably not at this time of night when you are the only one posting - you do have a point there!
Ben.S
Roar Guru
I'd actually go with exactly the same side, and for the same reasons too. Although I might consider Heaslip going on his recent Leinster form and Croft simply because I think the Wallabies will be vulnerable in the air. Agree re: Youngs too. Plus Croft and Tipuric are superb support players and link men.