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The Super Rugby Final 6

Roar Guru
29th May, 2013
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With few rounds left in the Super Rugby Season we are beginning to see the real Super Rugby Standings, with all teams having taken their bye points. It’s important to note that Brumbies, Reds and Waratahs have all played an extra game.

Ladder:
Chiefs 56
Bulls 50
Brumbies 50
Cheetahs 49
Reds 49
Crusaders 42
Blues 42
Waratahs 39

Run home:
Chiefs – BYE, Hurricanes (H), Crusaders (A), Blues (A)
Bulls – Highlanders (H), Kings (H), Sharks (H), Stormers(A)
Brumbies – Hurricanes (H), Rebels (H), Force (A)
Cheetahs – Bulls (H), Stormers (A), Blues (H), BYE
Reds – Rebels (H), BYE, Waratahs (A)
Crusaders- Waratahs (H), Highlanders (A), Chiefs (H), Hurricanes (H)
Blues – Highlanders (A), Sharks (A), Cheetahs (A), Chiefs (A)
Waratahs – Crusaders (A), Force (A), Reds (H)
Hurricanes – Brumbies (A), Crusaders (H), Highlanders (H), Rebels (A)

I believe it will take 53 competition points to secure a spot in the Super Rugby finals. Anything below that and you’re probably going to have to rely on wins and For/Against to beat other teams to sixth place.

Chiefs – Chiefs look to have top spot and a Home final booked. With bye points secured this week, and a home game against the Hurricanes first week back from the break, they have first well and truly locked in and are deserved title favourites. They do have two very tough games to finish the regular season, playing the Crusaders and Blues at their home grounds. It looks like these two games will be “must win” for the tied sixth place Crusaders and Blues to make the finals, and it’s a lottery as to who will be the best New Zealand team after the month long break.

Predicted outlook: W, L, W. I think the Crusaders will be a completely different team once Read, Carter and co. have match fitness.
Finish on 65 points.

Bulls – There’s no denying it, only a major disaster from the Bulls can stop them from securing first in their conference. With Highlanders and Kings at home over the next two rounds of the competition, they are aware that two bonus point victories over these cellar dwellars could even jettison them into first place on the Super Rugby ladder due to the Chiefs having a hard run home. The Bulls, like the Chiefs have two big inter-conference games to finish the regular season, with the Sharks at Home and then the Stormers away. I believe the Bulls with get at least one bonus point victory over the next two weeks, and I expect them to lose one game upon return from the break, probably to the rejuvinated Stormers.
Predicted Outlook: – W, W, W, L
Finish on 63 points

Brumbies – Australia’s best hope this year. Like the Bulls only a major Dick Cheney incident can stop them from making the finals. They have the easiest run to the finals out of the lot, with the Canes and Rebels at home, then the Force in WA after the break.

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Although stranger things have happened to the Brumbies this year (think draw against the Kings, loss to Tahs) I still cannot see them dropping more than one game. I have them beating the Hurricanes (knocking them out of finals contention.. not that the Crusaders wouldn’t have done that in the last week of the comp anyway) and securing hard fought victories over fellow countrymen finishing the season strongly, Rebels and Force.
Predicted outlook: BpW, W, W
Finish on 63 points

Cheetahs – Hands down the most exciting team in the SuperXV (Sorry Chiefs fans), consistently building on glimpses of form shown over the past three year’s, first year they can seriously

be considered as a Title Contender. Sitting in the same position as the Reds on the ladder with an extra game in hand. The Cheetahs also have the Bye in their last week of competition,

only time will tell whether this is a blessing or curse for the Cheetahs. Unfortunately they have three very big games with the Conference topping Bulls, followed by the Stormers at

Newlands and the Blues at home. A win against the Bulls could put them in very good stead to top their conference. The Stormers will be out for redemption following their horrific

Australiasia tour, and are a completely different team at home. Their final game of the regular season against the Blues could be a quarter final of sorts. Unfortunately I don’t see them

having the guns to make it all the way here.
Predicted outlook: L, L, W, Bye
Finish on 53

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Reds – The loss to the Stormers has put the Reds on iffy territory on the road to the finals. Sitting on 49 points (including bye points for Lions) they have an important game next week

against the Rebels. If the Reds can secure a bonus point victory here, it will surely secure them a finals position.
Final round match against the Waratahs will be the make or break game for the Reds.
Predicted outlook: W, Bye, W
Finish on 57

Crusaders – Crusaders are having a late season resurgence which no doubt coincides with the return of Kieran Read and Daniel Carter. With four games left to play, they have to win at least three to remain in playoff contention. The game this weekend against the Tahs is do or die for the Tahs, who are three points behind the Crusaders and have played an extra game as well.

They’ll be looking for a bonus point victory against the cellar dwellers Highlanders. Final two rounds of competition have them playing the Chiefs and Hurricanes. I believe the crusaders are going to win 3 of 4 here (loss to the chiefs) , ending the Hurricanes and Waratahs chances of making the Playoffs. Carter, Read and co’s experience will surely pull them over the line.
Predicted outlook: W, BpW, L, W
Finish on 55

Blues – With four games left in the season, including a dreaded two game SA tour, the Blues are really behind the 8-ball when it comes to making the final 6. Blues are actually 6 -6 (w-l) and have a whopping 10 bonus points. They’ll be looking for another 5 points this weekend against the Highlanders, which will put them in good stead for their SA Tour. I don’t fancy their

chances of beating either the Sharks or Cheetahs at home, and their final round match against the Chiefs, while sure to be a cracker, the result is certain. For the Blues to realistically

make the finals, they MUST beat the Cheetahs who are above them on the table (and as Ewen McKenzie puts it, they’re double point games)
Predicted outlook: BpW, L, W, L
Finish on 51

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Waratahs and Hurricanes-
Hurricanes have two tough games over the next two rounds and a loss to either the Brumbies this week or the Crusaders next round will well and truely end their finals hopes. They remain a mathematical chance, but I don’t see them having the firepower to win four-on-the-trot to make the finals.

Waratahs… well what can we say. On 39 Points with 3 games to play against the Crusaders, Force and Reds, their chances are as small as the Hurricanes. They are a game behind the rest of the comp as well, which means they require at least 3 bonus point wins in their final three games to make the finals. Unfortunately, the Crusaders will beat them this weekend, dashing

Australia’s hope for 3 teams in the finals.
I wouldn’t quite write off the Blues, I do think they have the ability to make the finals, but I don’t believe they can beat the Cheetahs at Bloemfontein. If they beat the Cheifs in the last round of the season they may even pip the Cheetahs for sixth place.

So to me it looks like the Waratahs, Hurricanes andamp; Blues will all narrowly miss out on a finals birth. With the end ladder looking something like this:
Final Table:
Chiefs – 65
Bulls – 63
Brumbies- 63
Reds – 57
Crusaders – 55
Cheetahs – 53

Blues – 51
Waratahs – 47
Hurricanes- 46

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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