Debates over team selection at Sky and BMC have ensured anticipation about this year’s Tour de France has rarely dropped below fever pitch.
But for me it’s been as exciting to just consider the list of rivals assembling to knock Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome off their sky-high perch.
Yes, the boys in black and blue are a formidable obstacle but looking at the contenders, the battle for podium honours was shaping up to be one of the most memorable ever.
That’s not the situation now though.
In the space of a couple of weeks, the cycling gods look to have spoken and entire complexion of the race has changed.
Chris Froome still has to ride the lap of France but he must be thinking that “all” he has to do is have a trouble-free race and the title is his.
Especially so when you consider the name that now won’t be on the start line in Corsica.
Twelve months ago, the top ten for the Tour de France looked like this: Wiggins, Froome (Sky), Nibali (AST), Van den Broek(LOT), van Garderen (BMC), Zubeldia (RSH), Evans (BMC), Rolland (EUR), Brajkovic (AST) and Pinot (FDJ).
In the Young Riders classification, Kruijswijk (RAB) and Taaramae (COF) placed behind the dominant duo of van Garderen and Pinot.
What a shame it is then that a number of them won’t be there and others have question marks over their form.
Wiggins’s cursed Giro campaign cruelled his Tour ambitions with a knee injury the final blow to the debilitating chest infection.
Vincenzo Nibali made it quite clear some time ago that the Giro would be his preference over the Tour.
Jurgen Van den Broek will be there but based on his form in the Cirterium de Dauphine (29th on GC), and the Tour de Romandie (7th) he is not in earth-shattering form. You can add to that the illness that’s hit Jelle Vanendert.
The emerging Belgian climber is suffering from a parasitic infection in his intestine and won’t race the Tour. Given Lotto isn’t blessed with climbers, this will weaken van den Broeck’s ambitions.
Tejay van Garderen will be absolutely ready again, assuming he emerges unscathed from the Tour de Suisse which like so many races this season is presenting riders with some truly awful weather conditions.
Of course, van Garderen does have to sort out who between him and Cadel assumes team leader status at BMC. Given his Giro podium finish, Cadel will deservedly begin the Tour as BMC’s big cheese, but doubts persist whether ultimately he’ll be able to recover from such a brutal Giro.
Andy Schleck’s agonisingly slow return to fitness, confidence and form and the absence of Fabian Cancellara must mean that Haimar Zubeldia will be the protected rider for Radioshack Leopard Trek. He finished 14th at the Dauphine but prior to that was only 17th at the Tour of California.
Schleck looked quite good (at times) in that race (he finished 25th), but hasn’t continued to improve at the Tour de Suisse. Surely can’t be ready to complete a three-week Grand Tour. With Chris Horner also out through injury the Trekkies don’t look likely to pose any kind of threat to Sky.
Twelve months ago, French hopes of a home Tour podium were starting to look very promising with a number of emerging riders taking the spotlight away from evergreen Thomas Voeckler.
Voeckler’s Europcar teammate Pierre Rolland was one of those riders but now his immediate future is in question, let alone his participation in the Tour. Low cortisol levels, which would prevent the body fighting inflammation, were detected ahead of stage 7.
It meant that barely 24 hours later, Rolland had to abandon the final stage after only 20km. Sadly though, it seems Rolland defied team orders to start the stage in the first place and may have now caused a lot more drama for himself.
Compatriot Thibaut Pinot finished 10th at last year’s Tour de France and after a solid Tour de Romandie (12th) he’s now looking good in the Tour de Suisse, but again he’s not a name to strike fear into a Sky heart.
The biggest rival to Froome should be Alberto Contador, and while he’ll have a formidable team around him for the big lap, Contador’s mediocre performance in the Time Trial was more than a surprise.
To blame an allergy may seem plausible, but it seemed a little too convenient. I reckon Contador will be glad there isn’t as much time trailing in this year’s race, but still, Froome is in such great form he won’t need much in the way of gifts to take maximum advantage.
And the list goes on of those who could be threats but the jury remains out.
Joaquim Purito Rodriguez managed a modest 16th at the Dauphine but surely must be primed for a serious shot at the podium.
Failing that, then his teammate Daniel Moreno Fernandez who finished third in the same race might be a good dark horse.
Euskaltel’s Sammy Sanchez may have also been a challenger too but after surviving the Giro and scoring a stage win in the Dauphine has decided to focus on the Vuelta and the World’s.
Daniel Navarro Garcia’s fifth at the Dauphine was an excellent result but whether his Cofidis team is strong enough to push him to a similar finish in Paris remains to be seen.
And while there’s little doubt that the Movistar team will be competitive, (they won four Giro stages), Alejandro Valverde’s ability to go high in the GC will be seriously tested.
Ryder Hesjedal may have also been a contender, but a nasty crash in the Tour de Suisse looks to have scuppered his ambitions.
Of course the Tour will throw up a surprise contender or two and we’re yet to see what role “luck” plays in proceedings, but right now, what was a start list befitting the Centenary edition of the Tour is lacking a little.
Not great news for cycling fans but Chris Froome won’t be complaining.
Clare
Guest
Yet another "expert", who doesn't seriously rate our own - "Cadel Evans". You said last year he was rated seventh. He was not. All the cycling experts in the tour mags had him in the top four. It was only that he had the virus which we didn't know before the tour that he couldn't properly fight to defend the yellow jersey from the previous year. Before the tour started there was no way Tee Jay was rated ahead of Cadel, nor some of the others you mention. You are attempting to rewrite history. You should be better researched. You are blinded by the prestige of the sky team who last year copied the tactics of the 2011 BMC eam supporting Cadel, particularly early in the tour and early in each stage. I suggest you refresh your memory with Rupert Guiness's book of Cadel's win in 2011. And yes Cadel rode the Giro, but just as his form in coming back. That will not be a set back for him. A team time trial camp in between, lots of rest and moderate training and he will be ready to challenge Froome. Also you fail to mention Richie Porte. Are you kidding? If Froome has the tour that everyone says he will (it could be another relatively boring tour (unlike Cadel's 2011) which would also bring good things for Richie Porte earlier than even he expect.. Look out for a podium finish for Porte... and think about doing some more background reading next time you right an article. Look forward to you having to eat your words in four weeks time!
Stu
Guest
Nairo Quintana? He's the dark horse for me. Been progressing nicely over the past few years, racking up stage and event wins. I won't be surprised if he's in the top few riders come next month.
Stu
Guest
To be fair, Andy Schleck did shatter his pelvis last year and by all accounts that's a bugger of an injury to come back from. And he has struggled with it, massively.
kid
Guest
+1
Grover
Guest
No, Froome wasn't toying with Porte, I think he was pacing him up the hill, trying to encourage him to the stage win. You don't "toy" with your team mates.
HardcorePrawn
Guest
"the carpenter with ADHD" I know exactly what you mean! :D
HardcorePrawn
Guest
Sorry Lamby, I wouldn't call that circumstantial evidence at all, that's just speculation. Sky's budget dwarfs the amounts spent by the other teams so it's hardly surprising that they're dominating tours at the moment. Just to clarify something: if you suspect that Wiggo is on drugs, on the basis of your "evidence", and through his association with Sky, does that mean that you also believe that his Sky teammate Richie Porte is using drugs too?
delbeato
Roar Guru
No worries Nick. I know what you mean, but one thing I've noticed is that subtlety is not something which works well on TV. Personally, I can't stand most presenters on TV, like the carpenter with ADHD on Better Homes and Gardens, or the "shocking reveal" on a building reality show which is just an ordinary, mild bathroom reno with a missing tap handle. But that's TV - they need to grab your attention.
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
no worries delbeato, no harm done! :) I actually like the fact most aussies enjoy the segment and dont think its 'too french'. Thing is, every July, I have ppl greating me with 'bonjour', "et voila", "bon appetit' etc, so it means its working and i completely understand that. The TdF is selling France very well, its a huge PR coup for the country and we all know that. Its just that as a french, i sometimes do find that a bit tiring especially after quite a few years in your country. Plus the questions about "did i wear a beret when i was there, do we often eat rabbit, etc". I just have to admit its a bit too much for me at times. Imagine an aussie show in France and in french with a lot of "crikey, G'day mate' and other australiana stuff, maybe as an aussie expat you would find that a bit much at times. I love the fact GG is showing french villages, the 'cuisine du terroir' etc. I just find the accordion and few french expressions a bit too much but its no big deal and again, in any case, its not against GG the man. They have to make the show for the majority of ppl and they do that fine. It just happens than i am from the same minority so i see things differently. I dont think I was being disrespectful anyway so was a bit surprised that a few roarers jumped and had a go, talking about open mindedness and so on. A bit OTT i would say. In any case you can tell your uncle he has a passionate fan club!!! phewwww!!!
delbeato
Roar Guru
Nick - I didn't mean to lecture you. No one is forced to enjoy his show of course, but he is a genuine authority on what he speaks about - he's been a qualified French chef from before a lot of today's celeb chefs were even born. I'm completely biased of course..
Rick Piper
Guest
I have lived next door to Gabriel Gate for 10 years and I will not take him being critisized likemthis the man is a living legend and cooks a mean BBQ BRING ON LE TOUR!!! P.S. I am house sitting while is away
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
Delbeato and king kebab, I am French myself, born and bred there and spent 27 years of my life in France before moving to oz over a decade ago. It might explain what I said as I obviously see things differently than you do, which is fair enough. I have nothing personally against GG. Thanks for the lecture about opening up to new cultures anyway ( and sarcasm kebab!)
King Kebab
Guest
Nick, it IS the tour de france not the tour de Campelltown Open your mind to new cultures and creeds Love Johnny Rainbow
King Kebab
Guest
AWESOME! GABRIEL IS A LEGEND!!!! (ring ring)
King Kebab
Guest
Gabriel Gate is awesome
delbeato
Roar Guru
- Most experienced cycling doctors have been involved in doping - you need to recognise that doping was (and still is to a lesser extent, i'd assume) an integral part of the sport back then. OGE have now taken Matt White back - is that also evidence that OGE have a doping program? I don't think so, in either case. - Sky have just spent up big hiring a bunch of highly talented riders. That they are riding well should not surprise anyone. - Both explained by overcoming illness (parasitic worms for Froome, glandular fever for Rogers). Both were serious illnesses that credibly explained their previous, poor form. - As above. - Sky's domestiques would be leaders on most other teams. This is explained simply by their large, Murdoch-backed budget.
delbeato
Roar Guru
Gaby is actually my uncle. He is as Aussie as the next bloke in many ways, but he also grew up in France and has built a career on sharing French cuisine and also culture with Aussies. I imagine French people would think we're 'stereotypical Aussies'. The French are in general, fiercely proud of their culture. Once you get over the xenophobia that seems to cause many people (not accusing anyone here) to take that as a threat, I find French (and other) cultures quite interesting. Anyway, he'll definitely be back for this year's Tour. The show has quite a following.
Bones506
Roar Guru
I agree with Colin N on this. Froome would not toy with Porte. he was trying to pace him but Porte had cooked himself in several stages by winding the screws in towards the end that he simply didn't have the legs. Whilst I am not a massive Froome or Wiggins fan I do have a lot of respect for Sky and how they train and race. It is all about the numbers. Each SD knows exactly what he can push out and for how long. Even Gerrans has come out and said they are too dialed into the numbers and that was part of his reason for leaving (not just going to an Aussie team). Sky ride Tempo and this is all driven off how long a rider can hold a certain W for how long. Porte struggled on the last stage of the Dauphine bc he pushed himself over his FTP in prior stages as in a shorter race you can often afford to do that. He will not do that at the TDF as he won't get the recovery into his legs.
Bones506
Roar Guru
SOme good names to throw into the mix. Betancur is probably a year or two off the podium but Fulsang for sure. It will take a team effort to knock Sky around. I am not writing Contador off. He is a big game day player and whilst hi TT was poor he looked very uncomfortable and was movin around on his rig a lot so I wonder if he was racing on a slightly new set up for the first time. I would have Porte up there. The one thing that will impact him is he will be the pace setter on the climbs. You will notice that when Rohan Dennis got dropped on he climb the day after he moved into Yellow at Dauphine it was Porte who was winding the screws into everyone with Froome just siting in. Sky will follow the same tactic as last year. Out time ito the TT's and defend their position in the mountains by controllng the tempo at the front of the peleton. As the stage finsihs they simply wind the screws in (Porte and Uran will be the key instiogators) and Froomewill look to push away if and when he can. Froom will not sit in like Wiggins the entire time.
John thompson-mills
Guest
Astana were in another league at the giro but what is their best team? they have picked completely different riders for the giro, dauphine and tour de Suisse. Only Tanel kangert raced in the giro & td Suisse. Everyone else has only raced once. Can't say I know what their best tdf 9 is given nibali won't be there.