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In a week where four of Australia’s and Randwick’s favourite sons were elevated to ‘Invincible’ status and deservedly so, it is again to Randwick that the Wallabies should turn to when planning the downfall of the British and Irish Lions.
In Queensland’s Ewen McKenzie and New South Wales’ Michael Cheika, Australian rugby has been shown by two other sons of Randwick how the Wallabies could take to the Lions and land the first blow of the three-Test series.
The records show that the Lions are rolling on after the defeat of both McKenzie’s Reds and Cheika’s Waratahs, yet Australian rugby can take much from what has been identified and exposed in these tour matches.
What has been confirmed is that the Lions as expected are powerful, skillful and disciplined – yet they are also susceptible to sustained running rugby coupled with aggression at the collision and some old fashioned myrtle green ingenuity and support play.
In the recent victory over the Reds, the Lions were clearly perplexed at times by the running game employed by Quade Cooper and his Queenslanders.
Clearly it has been identified there is a heightened opportunity of scoring points against the Lions by playing with width as confirmed by countless side line raids by the Reds.
Furthermore McKenzie’s men displayed by having the courage to play the space whereever the field position may be can also lead to opportunity.
Brilliantly illustrated by a memorable Luke Morahan try. However Queensland’s inability to secure first phase ball from the lineout and ill discipline tipped the game to the Lions.
But lesson learnt – look for the space and don’t be afraid to have a go!
We roll onto Sydney where Cheika’s Waratahs took the more direct approach with possession and did show that around the fly half – inside centre channel there is opportunity to make inroads into the Lions. Although, the first Tom Carter try did come from using the width of the park.
The Waratahs’ direct approach played into the hands of the tourists who were never really under threat of losing the match and simply absorbed the pressure and ground down their weaker opposition, who lacked the ability to recognize the opportunities and exploit them.
I must give credit to the Waratahs as they showed that although they never really threatened the Lions lineout, a near Will Skelton try originating from a short line out, and later a wonderful angled run by Cam Crawford off a Brendan McKibbon take from a long throw lineout showed the Lions are ill-prepared for out-of-the-box rugby; they expect it to be played conventionally.
The Waratahs simply did not have the skill to convert that pressure into further points or adapt their game accordingly to where the opportunities were.
But lesson learnt – Australia will not beat the Lions by playing like the Lions, Australia must out-think them.
So how do you put all that together to defeat a side that is clearly stepping up a gear and displayed their strength at the break down, dominated the lineout and the scrum and can kick goals from all over the park.
Quite simply with discipline and some old fashioned cunning. The Lions showed in their dismantling of New South Wales that a boxer will always beat a brawler.
Too much class although the brawler may land the odd lucky punch.
For all of New South Wales’ aggression at the breakdown it was largely inaccurate and often non-effective as the ball had already been distributed when a driving rib-bound shoulder hit its mark.
The Tahs should be applauded for their intent to take the game to the Lions.
But as four or five sky blue jumpers entered the breakdown, often it was against two or three red jumpers who clearly schooled the Waratahs on the importance of body height and accuracy at the point of collision.
Because two to three phases on the Lions went on score out wide with a two to three man overlap.
This is luxury the Lions should not be afforded when they play the Wallabies and probably won’t.
Hooper and Gill are in a different class to McCutcheon and Robinson and I expect the Lions to be more frustrated at the break down against the Wallabies.
The Waratahs largely through the work of Skelton showed that a big ball runner, two or three off the ruck can cause the Lions some grief. Yet what was never exploited was the decoy running of Skelton nor his ability to offload the ball just prior to contact or to offload just after contact.
There were gaps there if a runner could support the ball carrier.
There was too much sitting off Skelton from an offensive aspect and I am surprised that Drew Mitchell was not screaming onto a short off load from him or Bernard Foley using Skelton as a decoy as Skelton attracts so much defence himself.
Cliff Palu showed this against Wales in Sydney last year that by using him a decoy runner at times attracts multiple defenders which can also create space further out. The Lions must be engaged but also out thought.
It is apparent that one-off attritional rugby will not cause these Lions too much grief.
If Robbie Deans is to select Pat McCabe at inside centre as a crash-ball merchant I think it imperative he have a Kurtley Beale running deep from full back or an Israel Folau, Digby Ioane or Nick Cummins running off his inside shoulder to create doubt for the defence.
Something similar to that wonderful Digby Ioane try in Rosario against the Pumas last year should be used as it clearly illustrated what can be achieved when there is bodies in motion and doubt in a defensive structure.
Whatever the Wallabies do in attack from a back line it is going to have to be more cerebral than what has been used in the past several season. It simply will not stack up by just trucking it up.
Furthermore the Lions will not get as easy a run at line outs as they have thus far.
I suspect Deans will select four jumping options and rightfully so.
The Wallabies should look to compete at every lineout and disturb the Lions as much as possible at this particular restart play as the Lions scrum looks too rock solid even for the likes of Robinson and Moore to make any real impact.
Interestingly the box kick gain appears to be the preferred option for the Lions to get out of their 22 and often the ball does not make touch leaving them exposed to counter attack – this is where Deans and co must really develop some ingenuity as what will be expected is a return kick and chase or a crash ball back into the pack.
Perhaps some angled support running might do the trick but there is opportunity there that should be exposed as it is gift possession and should not given back cheaply.
The first Test is looming and promises to be a memorable one as all Lions-Wallabies tests are.
For coach Deans this could be the most pivotal test of his Wallaby coaching career as a loss might be the beginning of the end – alternately a win might be the first towards a Rugby World Cup campaign in 2015.
There is much at stake here for Deans. Ironically though if he takes a pages out of two of his potential Wallaby coaching rivals, Randwicks own Ewen McKenzie and Michael Cheika, Deans may just yet find himself on the books at the ARU.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.