Australian selectors need to be bold

Hooray at last. Some sanity in Australian cricket. Micky Arthur has been sacked and Lehmann is taking over I assume immediately. 'Bout time.

I hope you are agreeing with me here Chris because what you are saying is no different from what I am saying. A player at 30 has usually come close to his peak, his best average. Thats why picking the Cowans, Shaun Marshs, Voges, Baileys etc is fraught with folly. I've already remarked that you can overlook the averages of those in the 20-27 years or so range because they are still learning and their averages are still climbing. As for Rogers, David Hussey etc, their averages prove they are quality players who are worth risking in test matches.

Actually Sheahan was just getting his s#@$t together as a player when he retired at 29 (from memory) to concentrate on his career- as players did in those non-professional days. Averages are somewhat overrated unless looking back at a long-term career (and even then they can be somewhat misleading). Given batsmen are generally regarded as being at their peak between (roughly) 27 and 34, most are not going to be at their statistical apex when first selected - unless you are in a period of tremendous strength a la Australia in the recent golden era. At most other times, you are going to picking some players on hunch and faith, hence why selectors are generally ex-test players (in the theory that they can sniff out genuine talent or determination). It's worth picking Rogers and one of Bailey and Voges for the next year or two, but going forward we're going to have look at the likes of Burns, Silk, Maddinson etc, and these straw man arguments of "he's not averaging 40" will have to be ignored in many cases. As has happened often in the past, a player's statistical performance has risen with age and maturity and test match responsibility. As an aside, I suggest you read about Sabermetrics. These were developed by a baseball stats expert who argued that a lot of long-standing, well-regarded statistical measures in baseball were worth squat when it came to actually winning games. He developed a whole-range of new stats, or heralded the value of other overlooked stats. His approach is now widely adopted or used as a guide by MLB teams.

Yeah agree about D hussy being able to put a score together ...you make a very strong argument backed up by stats regarding marsh ...and its hard to disagree...just have a gut feeling he may well knuckle down and give things one last big shot...some batsman take a long time to come ...he would wanna do it soon or his time will be over ...with hopefully a strong pol of young bats coming thru...

+1

Silk's technique is a lot more sound than Maddinson's. Maddinson's shown a lot more in the UK than I thought he would, but he has much further to go. So far, the only people I'd be willing to say should have a spot in the top six for the first test are; Rogers Cowan Hughes Clarke ? Khawaja David Hussey, luckily, just started his first county cricket game for Notts this season (taking over from Cowan) and hopefully if he can show some scores immediately, given his past efforts in England, he can find his way in at 5 or 6. I understand it's a big might. But I do have no doubt he'd perform, especially if he's given the no.5 spot. Voges is the only other man I'd consider for the spot, failing that. Lastly, if Hughes doesn't perform at all in the first test, I'd drop him straight away, promote Clarke to first drop and just tell Rogers & Cowan to no matter what, get through the first ten overs to protect Clarke.

Nah hit and giggle is too entrenched in the Aussie psyche now, no one seems to want to become a test match cricketer anymore down under

Nick, You gave Maddinson the 'black spot' as he scored a duck in the A Team's second innings all out score of 111. Disappoinments too for Khawaja 6 and Hughes 11. They also struggled with the ball as Gloucs go into the last day on 3-162 chasing 321 to win. Fawad Ahmed went for 62 in 14 wicketless overs.

Dan Bretig's cricinfo article on Maddinson's innings outlines some temperament issues. I think he's a great prospect but wouldn't be inclined to throw him in yet. He's only 22 or thereabouts so he can play shield and county for a few years yet and earn his stripes. I would prefer Burns was given a run at some stage but he too is not settling the world on fire in county.

I think davos44 you are enamoured by Marsh's occasional spectacular and flashy innings usually in T20 and ODI matches, and in those matches he is impressive and continues to be. But there is much different as you well know between ODI and test matches and often never the twain shall meet. ODI matches are designed to give advantage batsmen with baseball like talent to swing away because its attractive to watch. It occurs because of the spacing of the field that is allowed and the limited time a top bowler has to work at a batsman. But in test cricket patience, selective shots usually along the ground, more aggressive field placements and the advantage of a couple of top bowlers to work at a batsman's weaknesses and perseverance apply. Marsh may have natural ability, but he has obviously many flaws in his play, not the least patience under accurate bowling. You may say he can improve but most batsmen by the time they reach 30, and he is 30 in two weeks, have reached close to their prime and problems that they may have have generally been worked on and more or less resolved. Marsh has a first class average short of 36. That's less than Cowan. He has played 77 first class matches for 140 innings, yet he has scored only 7 centuries or once every 20 innings. A test player should be scoring centuries at least around every 10 or so innings at first class level because the bowling is going to be even tougher at test level. He's not the sort of player who is going to win you matches. And he's been playing first class matches for over 13 years so surely he should be showing his worth by now. This is not anything to do with what's fashionable. This is to do with pure facts. The guy is just not up to it. In a year or so from now players like Maddison, Silk, Burns, Bosisto, perhaps even Doolan will be showing their worth with averages well in the forties, but I suspect Marsh will still be in the mid 30s. Its not personal and its not against older batsmen...I fully hope Rogers is in the test team and I hope David Hussey can get his form back because those guys can bat and score big hundreds.

And who knows who else... We are talking a lot of doom and gloom lately ...I prefer to be optomistic

Well said Bearfax! Agree with everything you said, except Hughes just needing time in the middle.

Bit cheeky Merv ..."haven't we got any proper cricketers ? " Ha. Enjoy it while you can mate ! We Just got a small transition hump to get over (we let hussy and katich go to early)...before we are right back where we have been for most of the last couple of decades....with our boot back on the English throat...happy to concede we may struggle a bit in uk this time round but that will have a lot to do with English weather... and duke balls ( hopefully without the lolly mints ) Rekon next time round back in oz well be coming good by then...and things will get... " back to normal "

+1

Hey Bearfax I know its a bit unfashionable on this site ....and im waiting for the hordes to descend ....but I actually think we still might salvage something with S Marsh and that he may well have more to offer...hes 29 and nowhere near old enough to write off...and if he can finally knuckle down with the right mental attitude who knows ...allways thought the guy has a touch of class about his batting...some of theses KIDS don't get there brains till around 28 or so

Fair call merv but I wouldn't be playing bailey though. You have to have at least some ok longer form form to get a go. An average of 19 from 8 to 10 shields games last year ain't good enough. The guys in the ashes squad is as good as we've got. And I agree mental strength is the key ingredient to make it at test level. But please don't say Stuart broad is mentally tough that makes me sick. Crap for 4 tests worlds best bowler in the 5th. Reminds me of a left arm bowler we have with initials m.j. Only one possible reason that can happen mentally fragile

Fair call merv but I wouldn't be playing bailey though. You have to have at least some ok longer form form to get a go. An average of 19 from 8 to 10 shields games last year ain't good enough. The guys in the ashes squad is as good as we've got. And I agree mental strength is the key ingredient to make it at test level. But please don't say Stuart broad is mentally tough that makes me sick. Crap for 4 tests worlds best bowler in the 5th. Reminds me of a left arm bowler we have with initials m.j. Only one possible reason that can happen mentally fragile