State of Origin II preview: who will win and why

The 2013 State of Origin series moves to Brisbane for game two, with the Queensland Maroons hoping to be rude hosts to the New South Wales Blues.

Who’s going to win will be dictated by four crucial factors:

The real Johnathan Thurston will play in game two
Thurston played the worst game of his Origin career in game one.

It was evident on the night something wasn’t quite right with ‘JT’, and coach Mal Meninga subsequently revealed he shouldn’t have played.

It says a lot for his character and toughness that Thurston battled on and played, but there is nowhere to hide in Origin. It’s no place for passengers at the best of times, but especially not for arguably Queensland’s most important player.

The Maroons could never find any momentum in attack because their chief playmaker was hobbled by injury.

The greatest indication of Thurston’s importance came from the fact Greg Inglis saw such limited opportunities. Normally Thurston would attack down the left side of the field, and provide the most potent weapon in rugby league with plenty of ball.

Yet without those touches, Inglis’ failed to have the impact he normally would, and the Blues sighed in relief post-match, not to mention during it.

That simply won’t happen again in Brisbane.

Thurston showed against the Dragons he is back to his best. That’s great news for the Maroons, great news for Greg Inglis, and terrible news for the Blues.

Thurston has never had back-to-back quiet games in Origin, and it will shock me very little if he is named man-of-the-match.

And that award rarely goes to someone from the losing side…

How will the Blues rookies handle Suncorp Stadium?
New South Wales’ players have come a long way in recent times, in terms of having passion for their state, their jersey, and State of Origin football. Whether you love them or hate them, Gus Gould and Ricky Stuart deserve credit for instilling that passion.

But Queenslanders, especially their fans, still have NSW covered in this area, and are simply more passionate about Origin.

It’s not a cliché, it’s not hyperbole, it’s not a myth, it’s not ‘BS’. It’s just true.

Nathan Merritt, James Maloney, Aaron Woods, Andrew Fifita and Josh Reynolds are set to experience what Queensland’s Origin attitude is all about.

They’re going to have a whole state, let alone the capacity crowd of 52,500 at Suncorp Stadium, baying for their blood.

They’ll never have experienced this much hostility, this much hatred, this much passion. When people call Suncorp Stadium a cauldron, they’re not kidding, and the rookies and their teammates will be made to feel as unwelcome as you could possibly imagine.

Josh Reynolds, if he sees playing time, will probably enjoy it. He’s happy playing the role of villain, and will lap up every boo. Likewise, James Maloney is a confident, cheeky little character, and he too will probably handle the situation well.

But how those other players, and Josh Dugan as well – heck, even the experienced NSW players – respond to the hostile environment, will have a large impact on the Blues’ fortunes.

And I suspect a few may not handle the furnace of intensity too well. They wouldn’t be the first players to wilt under the pressure of playing in Brisbane, and they won’t be the last.

That will be of of little consolation to them on Wednesday night though.

NSW need to be more precise in attack
The Blues were sensational in game one, and thoroughly deserved to win.

However, they were far from perfect, and with Queensland guaranteed to be better in the return encounter, NSW can’t afford to rest on their laurels. They’ll need to improve as well if they want to end the seven years of agony.

One area they can improve in is their precision in attack.

The Blues scored two tries, with the first being a lovely set move for Jarryd Hayne that Queensland have run for numerous Billy Slater tries over the years.

The second Blues try came off the back of some good lead-up work, but essentially was just a brilliant solo effort from Michael Jennings in broken play. It was truly exceptional, but you can’t really plan for it.

The Blues had many other attacking opportunities, but couldn’t capiltise. They forced some passes, went the wrong way of the field a number of times, and struggled with their kicking on a few occasions.

NSW were far from terrible, but by the same token, they should have had a larger lead for most of the game. They were fortunate Queensland didn’t make them pay, and the Maroons still put a scare in the Blues camp in the last 20 minutes.

In Brisbane, I expect the Maroons to return to their clinical best in attack, and that means the Blues will require more than two tries to defeat them. To do that, NSW need to improve their execution in attack, an area Mitchell Pearce, in particular, will be relied upon to be a little better.

There will be no biff
Some will argue this topic will hardly decide who is going to win the match, but I respectfully disagree.

Queensland can rightfully feel a little peeved that new ‘rules’ will be implemented for Origin two, with David Smith declaring anyone who throws a punch will be immediately given ten minutes in the sin-bin.

Even as a biased New South Welshmen, I can admit that’s unfair on Queensland.

The goalposts have been moved a third of the way through the game, and it will probably ensure the Maroons won’t be looking to exact revenge on Paul Gallen for his punches on Nate Myles, as the price will be too costly.

Why would this have an effect on the outcome of the match? Because Queensland will need to focus not on a ‘square up’ with Gallen, but on winning the game.

It sounds silly, but there was every chance the Maroons would be so fired up to get back at Gallen, that it may have detracted their attention away from their game plans.

Now their focus will be solely on the match and, coupled with the expected motivational speech from Meninga along the lines of, “the rules were changed because it’s a conspiracy and everyone wants the Blues to win,” Queensland will be focused on inflicting pain on Gallen and NSW where it hurts most: the scoreboard.

Prediction:
The primary reason for the Maroons loss in game one – apart from how well NSW played – was the ineffectiveness of their halves.

Yet despite Thurston and Cooper Cronk playing close to the worst Origin matches of their careers, Queensland were still within striking distance of the Blues. Both will be better in game two. Even if they’re not, Daly Cherry-Evans will be waiting on the bench.

The Maroons will also be playing in front of a parochial Queensland home crowd, and because of these factors and others, I simply can’t see them losing game two.

Queensland Maroons 19 – New South Wales Blues 12