Sitting and watching the Orica GreenEDGE team stand on the Tour de France winner’s podium and then Simon Gerrans zip up the yellow jersey is a little hard to believe.
This column was meant to focus on how Tour de France history has been shaped by the Team Time Trial and I will get to that in a moment but right now, the Tour de France story is all about Australia’s first World Tour team.
Just over a week ago, we knew that the selectors had picked a strong team, even if I had the tiniest quibble over one or two riders.
But there was little doubt it was much better than last year’s historic Tour de France nine.
We hoped it would be a team good enough to win a stage, and while we knew ‘Gerro’ was always going to be a contender, confidence in Matt Goss was not as solid.
So as brilliant as it was when Gerrans broke the duck, and lanced a massive Orica-GreenEDGE pressure point by claiming an historic stage three win in Corsica, it maybe wasn’t such a surprise that he was the one to do it.
And while we knew he had been targeting that stage for several months, no one really thought that triumph could be repeated and arguably bettered, just 24 hours later.
The Team Time Trial in Nice was some moment for Australian cycling.
Where does it rank in our Tour de France history will make for a fascinating debate, but that’s for another day.
After filing this piece, I wonder how I will get to sleep because the adrenalin is in full flow.
I wonder how much sleep sports director Matt White will get, because surely he deserves a lot of the credit for what we have seen so far.
Would we have seen the past two days unfold the way they did if White hadn’t been reinstalled as DS for this race?
I suggest we wouldn’t. Matt White seems to know what it takes to find the crucial edge.
And in a sport where it’s the one-percent efforts that make the difference, then the decision to re-employ him has proved a masterstroke.
Orica-GreenEDGE celebrate after winning the team time trial at Nice in Stage 4 of the 2013 Tour de France (Image: Sky).
Where the Orica-GreenEDGE express takes us from here doesn’t really matter, the boys have given us two days of unforgettable memories.
But as good as the Nice Team Time Trial was for one Aussie rider, what can you say about Cadel’s day?
It’s one of cycling’s oldest clichés: you can’t win the Tour in the first week, but you can easily lose it.
And after last night’s Team Time Trial, history suggests nothing has changed.
This Tour has not gone to script once in the opening four days, so there’s no reason to think it will for the rest of the race, but right now history says Cadel’s chances of winning a second Tour de France title have gone.
The Team Time Trial hasn’t always featured in the Tour’s parcours but when it has, it’s given a hefty hint as to which team will take home the final yellow jersey.
Appearing eight times in the past 13 editions, not once has the Tour winner has come from a team that places outside the top five in a Team Time Trial.
The Tour’s most experienced rider Stuart O’Grady describes it as “the most stressful day of any bike race” as a team is only as strong as its weakest rider.
No one can afford to crack until the final stages when the crucial final five riders are making the desperate dash to the line.
If you need reminding BMC finished ninth in Nice, 26 seconds behind Orica-GreenEDGE, which put Evans 26 seconds behind Gerrans in the GC.
Cadel is only 23 seconds behind Tour favourite Chris Froome and 17 behind Alberto Contador, but that’s still time he has to make up.
Given Cadel is not famous for being the most attacking rider, capable of breakaway wins, how he manages his campaign from here will be fascinating to watch.
But the history books suggest he won’t be able to turn the deficit around.
There wasn’t a Team Time Trial last year but when he won in 2011 Cadel’s BMC team finished second in the race against the clock. Leopard-Trek was fourth and had the Schleck Brothers sandwiching Cadel on the podium.
In 2010, no Team Time Trial was included but in 2009, riders from the top three placed teams filled the top five GC spots.
You could argue these statistics are skewed by that disgraced Texan rider, but the broader figures lend support to the argument.
Apart from 2005 when Armstrong’s Discovery Team was the only team in Team Time Trial top five to provide a top five GC rider, the numbers holds up.
In 2004, the teams placing first, fourth and fifth (US Postal, T-Mobile and CSC) in the Team Time Trial filled the top five on GC.
A year earlier, the top two GC finishers were first and third in the Team Time Trial with US Postal and Team Bianchi respectively.
Similarly in 2002, it was top two in the Team Time Trial (Once and US Postal) taking the top two steps (albeit reversed) on the Champs Elysees podium.
And in 2001, second (ONCE) and fourth (US Postal) after the Team Time Trial provided the first and third riders on GC.
Even randomly picking years in the 1990s and 1980s proves the theory a top five place in the Team Time Trial and at the very least you’re a serious podium contender.
As Miguel Indurain bid farewell to a five-year time-trial based domination of le Tour, the 1995 race saw the top four riders on GC come from the top four teams in the Team Time Trial.
It was a little leaner in ’94, but the Indurain’s victory was built from a solid third place in the Team Time Trial.
Randomly picking two years from the ‘80s, and it’s the same story.
In the gripping 1985 edition, La vie Claire won the Team Time Trial and filled the top two GC spots – Bernard Hinault and Greg LeMond.
Three years earlier, four of the top five riders – including Hinault as he picked up his fourth title–came from top five Team Time Trial teams.
So while numbers might suggest a picture to paint, this edition of the Tour de France hasn’t exactly gone to script.
Let’s hope that trend continues for another two and a half weeks and we get to experience another slice of Australian Tour de France history.
Abdu
Guest
I'm not so sure about both those instances, although the UCI doesn't need defending and we all agree Pat should have been gone long ago. I heard Gilbert was only warming up in the rainbow kit? Might need to check the actual race pics. Also, much as we all love the romantic notion of a lanterne rouge battling on, Cannondale chose to drop their team mate and get a good time rather than work for him. There is a pretty reasonable justification for cutting him by the UCI. If it was all about finishing then it might as well be a Gran Fondo and I'll do it.
John thompson-mills
Guest
Hi chivasdude.. A few points re your comments, my piece didnt actually criticise Cadel.. The headline said he flopped but I didn't write the headline. That said, BMC said the result was disappointing and Cadel said he expected to do better, so it could be argued he flopped. The reason for the story was to try and highlight how important the TTT is in determining the Tour champion. The historical facts were compiled before the race and then it was just a matter of applying them to the results. Nothing more nothing less. Of the contenders, cadels result was the most significant, so i wrote about it. if bmc finished in the top 5 then i wouldve reported accordingly. The Green Edge result surprised everyone and had to be included, but given no one from the team will figure in the battle for overall honours, it didn't really fit the tone of my original plan. But of course it couldnt be ignored and has to be wildly celebrated! So well picked that they were effectively two different stories.. And thanks for reading and leaving a comment.
Mike D
Guest
Hate to say it, but I think Cadel's chances have been blown a bit out of proportion. He's a clever, experienced rider, so he always stays safe in the first week, and comes out of it saying plenty of positive things about his form and his chances. But I just don't think he can keep up in the mountains any more. I reckon this is going to be similar to last year's Vuelta, with Froome, Contador, Rodriguez and Valverde fighting a four-way duel on the slopes (of which there are many), and Cadel doesn't belong in that company. This Tour is on a completely different level to the Giro.
chivasdude
Guest
Why does an article about the great performance of Orica GeenEDGE and Simon Gerrans have to turn into a criticism of Cadel? Geez, let's just say well done to the OGE boys and celebrate a great day for Aussie cycling. To say that Cadel (personally) flopped is ridiculous. This was a Team TT and you are only as good as your 5th ride. It seemed to me that the BMC team performed pretty much as expected. Cadel's margin behind Froome and Contador is small and while it may prove to be significant, I suggest it is way too early to tell. The mountains will determine this Tour and that is for next week.
John thompson-mills
Guest
Lets hope so bill... If it happens..It will be brilliant to see
matt
Guest
Cadel a real chance of a podium in the tdf. He won't beat the top 2 unless they suffer unexpected set backs, which is always a chance in Le tour...
Bobo
Guest
I agree that Evans is an accumulator of time, rather than someone who attacks and takes chunks of it. His tendency to ride defensively and scrap for seconds at the end of a stage means that he will never win a stage race by several minutes. It also leaves him particularly vulnerable to a jour sans, as he has demonstated repeatedly throughout his career. Certainly, Evans will need to drop Froome decisively in the mountains, at least once, to win the Tour. I have never seen him look close to doing that since Froome's transformation from also-ran domestique to GC contender.
bill
Guest
i would say it indicates how Cadel has stacked the team to help him in the mountains - BMC wouldn't be expecting to ever have to control the race/chase down attacks - leave that to Sky - Cadel will be surprisingly surrounded by team mates come the close of the big days in the Alps.
John thompson-mills
Guest
You could well be right bobo. I just randomly chose those years and reported what they showed. I agree 23 secs is not much but it's not in cadel's make up to escape and take time. Unlike previous years when teams have launched repeated attacks to soften up rivals..the schleck's did it a few years ago.. I can't see bmc being able to do that. It will be down to Cadel to find a way. Who knows how it will pan out, especially given how this race is going so far. Thanks for the feedback.
Bobo
Guest
I don't see Evans' loss of 23 seconds to Froome as representing Evans 'losing' the Tour already. I think that's a tad hyperbolic. TTTs from the 80s and 90s are not a great comparison, given that they generally were considerably longer stages - 1985 was nearly three times as long as yesterday's, for example. Time differences were commensurably greater. If Evans loses the Tour, it will be down to the efforts of the Giro in May, and his 36 years of age: it won't be down to a few seconds in the Stage 4 TTT.
alby
Guest
Evans doesn't attack for stage wins here and there, but when he needs time on the GC he's like a rabid dog. it's going to be great to watch!
Jim Bom
Guest
That was a great stage last night...right down to the wire. And the OGE had no radios to get the split timings! Even more impressive.
Tom
Guest
Agreed about the UCI, also witness the disgraceful exclusion of Ted King due to him being 7 seconds outside the time limit (and he disputes the time he was given, as his bike didn't have a timing chip). He rode the stage on a road bike due to him being in a great deal of pain from the stage 1 crash where he suffered a dislocated shoulder, and as such got dropped in the first kilometre. The race organisers are allowed to use discretion when excluding riders, and they should do so in this case.
Sean Lee
Expert
Fantastic Tour so far John. Similar to you mate, I couldn't sleep after blogging last night's stage. Just kept running the events over and over again in my head. Loving this Tour!
Bones506
Roar Guru
Anothe point of note is that Phillipe Gilbert wore his World Champ colours in the TT - note allowed as he is the Road race champion and was not fined yet Tony Martin (current TT WC and on the winning team for the TTT WC) wore just team kit and was fined 2000 swiss francs for having the World Champ strip on his bike. WTF - is the UCI serious about this kind of thing. I agree that rules are needed but if you are the WC you should kit your bike out. Also - what is with Gilbert - this guy was super popular but after not doing any interviews unless it was about his book hilst at the TDU, the WC tattoo and now wearing kit when he is not supposed to smacks of arrogance. Bring on another WC.
Colin N
Guest
"and barely a week later he’d won over the Aussie media (again) and had us dreaming of a victory" Really? He got praise, certainly, for looking like the old Evans, but he never looked like beating Nibali (although, to be fair, no one did). But the author makes a good point, he's not the most attacking rider and with Contador (apart from his last outing) and Froome excellent TT riders, it's surely going to be difficult for Evans to make up time?
Damien Chamley
Roar Guru
Good write-up, though I wouldn't be writing off Cadel over 26 seconds (24 to Froome and 18 to Contador). In this year's Giro, he lost 37 seconds in a 17km TTT on Stage 2, and barely a week later he'd won over the Aussie media (again) and had us dreaming of a victory. BMC were never expected to match the top teams today.
Bones506
Roar Guru
Completely agree about Matt White's involvement with the team and their stage success. Bringing him back is absolutely the right thing to do - not only from a success/strategy point of view but also b/c people like him can help young riders avoid the traps that unfortunately White and many others faced - in short he and others never had much of an option but to dope. Everyone was doing it and if you didn't get with the program your career in cycling was over. I have a lot of sympathy for these guys. I completely understand it is cheating but had I been faced with the same set of circumstances I am forthright enough to know I would have done the same.
Gurudoright
Guest
It is great to see an Aussie in the maillot jaune. GreenEdge as a whole should take a bow. It is truly amazing what they have achieved since their inception despite no global superstar cyclist in their team. Viva Le Tour, Viva GreenEdge