Australia will start as a significant underdog when the Ashes series gets underway at Trent Bridge on Wednesday.
However, like Allan Border’s surprise tourists in 1989, Australia is not without a total hope.
To regain the Ashes the team must play smart, disciplined cricket and there are several key areas and individuals that will dictate the fortunes.
Here are some of the key requirements if Australia is to spring an upset:
Michael Clarke has to have a big series
The Australian skipper is the standout batsman in the side – just as Border was in 1989 – and he has to lead by example at the crease.
Since assuming the captaincy his batting has been sublime.
In 24 Tests at the helm he has averaged 66.1 and peeled off nine centuries, including three doubles and one triple.
At home throughout his career he has averaged 64.9 while on the road he has averaged a modest 42.0.
He has to be able to replicate his Australian form during this series whether he bats at four or five.
His teammates will walk taller if Clarke is amongst the runs
Brad Haddin has to reward the selectors’ faith
Haddin enters the opening Test as Clarke’s deputy.
Up until this series he has spent much of the past two years living in Matthew Wade’s shadow.
It is imperative that Haddin performs at his best as his counterpart, Matt Prior is a redoubtable fighter who has often saved his country with bat in hand whilst also being particularly sound behind the stumps.
He needs to at least equal Prior’s contribution if not eclipse it.
A veteran of 67 Tests, Prior has scored seven centuries and 26 half-centuries en route to a career average of 44.3.
He has shown an ability to get quick runs or grind it out with the tail depending on the match situation.
Haddin makes a return to Test ranks with an average 35.5.
Whilst his ‘keeping is still the most important facet of his game he must contribute solidly with the bat.
Known on occasions to fall to errant and overly ambitious shots, he has to bat with resolve in this series.
Australia must not gift wickets to England
In recent times Australia has a very poor record when it comes to losing top order batsmen to casual and careless running between the wickets.
The England bowlers will provide enough trouble without batsmen digging their own holes.
Shane Watson has often been a culprit and at times Ed Cowan has fared little better.
Mind lapses have to be eradicated.
Take all that is offered
It is a well-worn phrase, but catches truly can win matches, if not series.
While Shane Warne’s fumble off the edge of Kevin Petersen’s bat at The Oval in the final Test of the 2005 series did not hand England a match win it did see them regain the Ashes.
Australia has historically been known as one of the best fielding nations in world cricket.
The current side needs a near blemish free series to be in the contest.
Nathan Lyon has to do his job
From the moment Lyon comes to the bowling crease during this series he will be a marked man with the likes of Pietersen and Prior looking to collar him early.
He has to be up to the challenge.
It is imperative that he restricts the flow of runs from his end to allow Clarke to utilise his quicks in short, sharp bursts thus keeping the pressure on the England batsmen.
If Lyon fails to deliver the onus will likely fall on the shoulders of 19-year-old Ashton Agar – a tall order for such an inexperienced bowler in the pressure cooker of an Ashes series.
Let their game do the talking
England, as favourites and holders of the little urn, will be chirpy.
The Australian players cannot afford to get mired in a verbal slinging match.
In the end, all that matters is the scorecard.
The focus has to be entirely on the task at hand, especially with bat in hand.
Make the Duke ball swing
We know England will move the ball through the air – it has been a key and successful weapon in the last two Ashes series they have hosted.
Too often Australia’s pace barrage has failed to come to terms with the English ball.
They have to master it this time around.
The likes of James Pattinson and Mitchell Starc will be a handful if they can consistently get the ball to move through the air.
Knock over Alastair Cook and Jonathon Trott early
This sounds a lot easier than it will be in reality but Australia has to remove these two early.
Australia knows full well how this pair, in partnership, can grind down an opposition and compile massive partnerships thus setting a foundation for the likes of Pietersen and Bell to make merry.
Australia needs to adopt the philosophy of the great West Indian teams of the 1980s and look to ‘behead’ the opposition’s batting by claiming the skipper early.
Build partnerships
It is a simple theory but Australia in recent times has often failed to execute it.
Too many times in the last few series the batting has collapsed at key times with a rapid succession of wickets removing any chance of putting pressure on the opponent.
Upon the fall of very wicket, it is imperative the new pair establish a base and build upon it.
Patience has to be maintained
Test cricket is just that – a test.
A test of skill – both mental and physical.
In this era of Twenty20 and maximum entertainment and considerable risk, Clarke’s team must go back to the tried and tested traditions of the longer form of the game.
Whether in the field or at the batting crease, patience will be a key.
Lose it and you lose the contest.
Harmony has to be restored
Too many column centimetres and talkback radio segments have been filled of late with issues surrounding the personalities within the Australian dressing room.
To have any chance in this series, everyone must be reading from the same hymn book and pulling in the one direction.
Clarke’s man management skills will be tested, especially if things go astray early.
Together with the new coach Darren Lehmann, the pair has to be able to smooth the waters and ensure every member of the squad is striving for the collective goal unfettered by petty jealousies and factionalism.
If Australia can achieve these aims it has a big opportunity to push England over the next two months.
If only a few of the boxes are ticked any remote chance of regaining the Ashes will be nigh impossible.
Rudi
Guest
Cook's an important wicket as he's the captain and figurehead and is in incredible form. His powers of concentration are unparallelled and he often converts big scores into massive ones. Trott loves to bat and can get into a Jacques Kallis-esque batting bubble but he doesn't have the impenetrable defence feel that Cook has when he's going. KP is a luxury player, can win you the odd test but struggles with application and is a disruptive dressing room influence. Bell is a great strokemaker who's easy on the eye but has long struggled with the mental side of the game. Expect him to make a lot of pretty thirties. Prior is a worry and can easily take the game away from us. He goes hard from the outset which could well play in our favour. Root is a very handy young player with lots of potential, but I don't expect his contribution to be crucial in this series.
Rudi
Guest
big ask for a bloke that's only scored two tons in his career
Tom
Guest
I disagree that Clarke needs a big series for Australia to win the Ashes. I think the best thing would be for Clarke to succumb to his dodgy back and return to Australia and prepare for permanent retirement from all forms of crickets. During this time he should not consider work as cricket commentator or even as a coach of U/12's. He should permanently disappear from cricket and should only be remembered as Australian crickets worst captain and biggest mistake who only ever had one good year of cricket. If Clarke scores runs this Ashes series then his ego will swell to such a size that not even Boof will be able to control it. This is what I fear the most.
darcytrainor
Roar Rookie
Fantastic article Glenn, Agree on all points. Too many "ifs" though which is why they aren't a realistic chance. Top order HAS to click. Right now it's Cook, Trott, KP, Bell and Trott vs Clarke in terms of established batsmen. They must also attack and defend at the right moments. Anderson, Broad, Swann and Finn all have history of going into their shell when under attack, but choosing the right moment is the key. 2 sleeps to go!
JoshC
Guest
First 11 should be: Watson Rogers Warner Hughes Clarke Khawaja Haddin Pattinson Harris Lyon Bird Gents, I think that has a mixture of the best potential and the best in form. Bowling is all right arm over however I think the best to exploit pommy conditions. Starc is obviously in the mix and a future star but for 1st test I think these 3 should be in. A special mention to Siddle who has bowled his heart in the most admirable fashions over the last 2 years and has always played above his skill level. Warner needs to pay back this faith but I believe he could potentially be one of the finest of his generation. Same for Hughes as you don't make 20+ FC centuries without knowing how to bat. Ussi, well the lad has a ton of class and needs to be given a decent chance. Also, great to see smith playing well putting pressure on. I am hoping it is more than wishful thinking but the team seem to have more confidence and direction since Lehmann took over. Let's hope it translate's to Trent Bridge, where all talk and speculation is out the window and we see what the team is made of. Go Australia!
Australian fan
Guest
Those Poms can't bat 4 nuts
Broken-hearted Toy
Guest
What I gather from this article is that you want a completely different team to be playing as most of the things you've suggested as necessary aren't going to happen. The Aussie batsmen will 'play their own game' which means making unnecesary shots without much in the way of footwork. The whole building partnership thing is a lost art with the Aussies. At times, they look like the West Indies, every man for themselves and wanting to look flashy rather than like test batsmen. Haddin might go ok, he gest very lucky with his aggression, more so than some of the others. And I expect a few non-useful fifties from Watson. Our bowlers are on a massive learning curve. As seems usual these days, we've got a team with little to no experience in the conditions. Let's hope Starc has remembered what he learnt at Yorkshire.
Aakash bhat
Guest
Really nice article! Just 2 days to go before the first test starts and i still have no clue who'll be playing.Apart from clarke,watson,rogers,haddin and patto no one is guarranted a spot.
TJ
Guest
Quite simply if Australia are relying on Clarke to score all the runs, wr may as well give them the urn now. As a collective group, Australia must score 400+ in their first innings and take 20 wickets. That is as simple as test cricket can be paraphrased and what they must do to win the ashes. Not rocket science, there Is a million posts about how or why we can win, the above is as simple as it gets. That's what will win tests regardless of ashes or not. It is a team sport relying heavily on individuals to perform. Great if Clarke scores 1000 runs but unless the team do their jobs, then we will lose, not just this series but any series ahead for the forseeable future.
MervUK
Guest
Indeed disco, but he does look a bit scary going to this one... I think there might be even more fireworks than usual, it will be a big test for Lyon, who I rate, but when KP comes hunting you...
MervUK
Guest
I'm Ian Bell's biggest fan, just pointing out that he has never been described in those terms before, we all hope to see even more of that side of him, a la SA in 2009, he's a class act when his head is clear. I'm hoping new baby etc, renewed focus... Hopefully form of 2011 returns...
JohnB
Guest
If 4 half centuries are part of 400 runs at 40 across 10 innings, and the 12 wickets you talk of, absolutely yes. 4 scores of 50 and above out of 10 innings historically is a good series' work, but that's assuming the series aggregate isn't only about 250. Put together 2 single figure scores, 2 x 20/30s, 2 x 30s/40s and 4 in the 60s to 80s and you may not have dominated but you've done a job.
Disco
Roar Guru
Ian Bell sure played like an all-day batsman in the third Test in NZ. It was he, more than Prior, who was responsible for England drawing that match. But, yes, he's a fine stroke-maker, albeit one that tends to get out rather too easily.
Disco
Roar Guru
KP tends to play one epic innings per series.
jonty23
Guest
That top 7 with the exeption of Clarke is poor. Rogers: 35 yo with a single test screams good 1st class player but never commanding enough to select. Watson : After 41 tests @35 inc 2 centuries for a top order is just plain ordinary return on the sugar coated BS we here about his supposed talents. Cowan : A polarising selection ,with a constant absorbtion of balls and failure to get beyong many starts suggests he`s just not quite good enough.Games lacks the ability to move into another "gear" Hughes : A highly fragile technique that crumbles under the first sign of heat with an equal mind set to match,in real danger of oblivian with another poor series. Warner: As a musician it would be an Album titled "Hits and misses" a match winner on his day but of late bogged down when cant find his rythem. Will be a staggering selection in light of recent lack of cricket and poor discipline. Haddin : Talented player who to often plays well outside his limitations,flat track bully who has been reselected on others failings rather than commanding performance`s
Disco
Roar Guru
+1
Disco
Roar Guru
Quite. Fraser, Defrietas, Small, Botham, Dilley and Foster were all variously crocked during the series, not to mention that the likes of Jarvis, Foster, Emburey and Defrietas had their heads muddled with rebel offers, though the latter didn't end up going.
Disco
Roar Guru
At the conclusion of the Indian series people were saying, "Don't worry, Khawaja will certainly get a chance in England". I didn't believe it then and I don't believe it now.
nickyc
Guest
Long range weather forecast for July is hot dry weather across the UK. Forecast for Nottingham - Mon 25°c max Tue 26°c Wed 21°c Thu 21°c Fri 25°c Sat-Sun Likely similar to Fri No chance of rain. Whoever wins the toss is surely going to bat. Unless a dry pitch offers help to spin and reverse swing it may well be a runfest.
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
Makes you realise just how stupid someone like David Warner actually is when you put it like that.