After all the articles written this week about how terrible Carlton were last week, how they need to rebuild and how Kreuzer and Gibbs needed to be traded because ‘they haven’t come on’, I thought it might be interesting to compare them to similar players.
For Kreuzer I chose Nic Naitanui as they are a year apart in age and just 13 games apart in experience (Kreuzer being 24-years-old with 99 games, while Naitanui is 23-years-old with 86 games).
Kreuzer’s career stats see him average 12 disposals per game, 2.9 marks, 3.4 tackles, 17 hit outs and roughly one scoring shot per game (56 percent accuracy).
His 2013 stats are close to the best of his career with 12 disposals, 3.6 marks, 4.1 tackles, 24.3 hit outs 1.45 scoring shots (37.5 percent accuracy).
Compare this to Naitanui whose career stats are 12.2 disposals, 2.1 marks, 3.5 tackles, 20.4 hit outs and 1.16 scoring shots (61 percent accuracy).
His 2013 stats are also not far of career-best with 12.1 disposals, 2.7 marks, 26 hitouts, 3.1 tackles and about 1 scoring shot (70 percent accuracy).
As you can see these stats are very similar with Kreuzer taking the points in number of marks and tackles while Naitanui wins the hitouts and the goals scored but none of the margins are realy decisive.
This raises the question – if Kreuzer has failed to come on is the same true of ‘Nic Nat’?
Or is it simply that Kreuzer’s low profile and workmanlike efforts get platyed down, while Naitanui’s flashes of brilliance get over-hyped?
As for Gibbs so far this year he is averaging 23.3 disposals, 4.4 marks, 4.5 tackles (tackling ‘machine’ Karmichael Hunt averages just 3.9) and just under one scoring shot per game (60 percent accuracy) while Trent Cotchin averages 25.4 disposals, 3.5 marks, 3.2 tackles and just 0.7 scoring shots (33.33% accuracy).
Their career stats are also very close with Gibbs having 21.9 disposals, 5.6 marks and 3.7 tackles compare with Cotchin 22.4, 3.7 and 3.4.
So again has Cotchin ‘failed to come on’ or is Gibbs just harshly marked?
While I acknowledge that stats can only go so far but my main point is that people have been very quick to jump on two 24-year-olds backs simply beacuse they were number one picks ,when they are actually tracking pretty well against their peers.
Yes they still have some development to work on but there are very few players who can dominate games early in their careers and we need to have patience with the young blokes drafted to our clubs.
macca
Guest
I light of the criticisms of Naitanui recently perhaps this article needs revisiting?
anez edwards
Guest
As a not overly football educated follower who still loves the game my view on Nic Nat is he is overhyoed , Many players including also his team mates and especially Dockers players put in far more work effort and are tireless all over the ground week after week ; To me Nic Nat seems to play for the occasional 'flash ' but then tires and rests out much of his poor games with little consistent effort shown in a full four quarters . PS : Am sure in the coming years he will be less hyped and will never have the required tank that elite star quality players need at the top level .
macca
Guest
"That is flawed because everyone knows Nic is a far better player than Kreuzer." Everyone perceives Naitanui to be better but so far this year in 11 games he has had 14 or more possesions 3 times and 5 or more marks twice and 25 or more hit outs 6 times, Kreuzer has played 15 matches and has 14 or more possessions 7 times, 5 or more marks 5 times and 25 or more hit outs 9 times. Kreuzer has also kicked 7.11 while Naitanui has 8.3 I acknowledge these raw stats don't tell the whole story and while I am not arguing over who is better I don't think the gap is as great as people would believe.
Jax
Guest
Wellingham & Selwood back from injury and the form of Lycett may have gone someways to covering for the loss of Nic Nat in these last few games. Once again you are comparing Nic Nat to Kreuzer ie its just as ridiculous for WC to trade Nic as it for Blues to trade Kreuzer. That is flawed because everyone knows Nic is a far better player than Kreuzer. I take your point re: Blues shouldn't trade him but the Nic Nat comparasion is a stretch.
macca
Guest
Is that why the Eagles have won 2 or their past 3 games despite him not playing? But again this isn't about Naitanui not being good, it is about Kreuzer being better than peoples perceptions and the thought of trading him should be as ridiculous as the eagles trading Naitanui.
Justin
Guest
You really can't use stats to compare Naitanui. His impact on matches (call it x-factor if you want) is immense. He improves the Eagles simply by being present.
macca
Guest
Jax - Naitanui does beat Kreuzer in CP as I noted above but 8.8 to 6.3 isn't massive and doesn't show that Kreuzer doesn't win his own ball - also as their total disposals are about the same these stats also show that Kreuzer works harder around the ground. Other stats that may be of interest are; For Contested marks Naitanui is in front of Kreuzer 1.8 per game to 1.3, Kreuzer takes 1.4 marks per game inside 50 Naitanui takes 0.8, Naitanui has 3.2 clearances Kreuzer 1.9, Kreuzer has 3.3 1 percenters per game Naitanui has 2.8, Kreuzers disposal efficiency is 60.6, Naitanui’s is 66.1%, Oh and on the tackle count if you read the article you would wee Kreuzer is ahead in this regard. I am not saying Naitanui isn't any good, I rate him highly but I also rate Kreuzer - maybe you should take your blinkers off and see that both are quality players - just different.
Jax
Guest
Read the other posts, take your blinkers off and look at more than the possession, kicks and handball stats. Nic Nat is #1 in the AFL for setting up scoring chains ie he wins possession of the ball and WC score and he does that better than anyone in the league. Compare his CP stats against Kreuz while you're at it and that's the difference ie Nic Nat wins his own ball and creates while I'm not sure what Kreuz does that even comes close to that. These are the stats that matter, not your selective micro-analysis of possessions. Compare the tackle count while you're at it. You put this all down to 'flashes of brilliance' do you? Open your other eye!
macca
Guest
Given their averages are about the same if Kreuzer is "consistently average" Naitanui must be very poor very often.
Jax
Guest
consistently average
macca
Guest
Kaz - I think Kreuzer's efforts over the past couple of weeks have put some of those calling for him to be traded back in their box and validates my arguments.
macca
Guest
My point would be that he was picked All Australian because of his very good games, overlooking his quite poor games, again Kreuzer is consistent.
Jax
Guest
Nic Nat was the #1 2012 All Austrlian ruckman. He played half the season with an injured shoulder and went straight into post-season surgery. He missed the 2013 pre-season and was rushed back in R8, very underdone and carrying a bad groin/back. He was rushed back to try and salvage the 2013 season. He's out injured again and I doubt we will see him again this season. I can't recall another ruckman at age 23 that has done what he has already.
kaz
Guest
Jermayn, have to agree with Macca. He has provided some very interesting stats to support a thought provoking argument. You on the other hand have proven his point that flashes of brilliance and occasional eye catching displays tend to overshadow actual workrate and effort. Gibbs is criticised for being soft, yet his average tackle rate is higher than Cotchin's?
macca
Guest
Beau - Not sure I agree with all you say but I thnk the general thrust is exactly what I am saying, Naitanui plays some very good games and some very ordinary games but people overlook the poor games because they are dazzled by the good games, Kreuzer is a workhorse who is very consistent and his lack of "flash" causes people to under rate him.
beau
Guest
Against top quality Naitanui. Like the eagles is found wanting. Even Ryder made him look foolish. Ryder who is always criticized for his work rate made naitanui look ordinary and his only highlight was a high jump in the ruck. Compare him to Majak Daw, Daw was considerably cheaper at the draft, has less ruck skills but the work around the ground is the same. In 5 years Naitanui will still be an overhyped player and Daw could be something greater. If both teams are finishing outside the 8 its irrelevant how they perform this season. But who will get more bang for their buck?
Macca
Guest
Jax - If you couldn't tell from the first sentence what this article was about then your powers of comprehension aren't that high. And if I had of titled the article the way you want it the main thrust of the point I was making would of been lost. "so you roped in Nic Nat and Gibbs which is ridiculous as they are both well-ahead of the other two so far in their careers and that’s a fact (not just a stat)." I assume you mean Cotchin not Gibbs (although it is misleading) but your fact is an opinion not a fact, you need to substantiate facts. On top of that I am not arguing that Cotchin and Naitanui aren't ahead of Gibbs and Kreuzer but the degree to which they are ahead is in contention and I dispute that thedistance between them is as big as the "Naitanui is star Kreuzer is a dud" brigade would have you believe. Naitanui has ahd some very very good games, more than Kreuzer but the fact their stats settle around the same numbers indicate that Kreuzer is more consistent.
Jax
Guest
you mislead everyone Macca and that's the main issue for me. You wasted my time - I am interested in articles about Nic Nat but I don't give a toss about Kreuzer or his under-performing mate You should have named the article - Should the Blues trade Kreuzer - you probably didn't because you knew it would not get much attention so you roped in Nic Nat and Gibbs which is ridiculous as they are both well-ahead of the other two so far in their careers and that's a fact (not just a stat).
Macca
Guest
Jax - I watch plenty of games. The point of this article was to try and get people to have more of an open minded view of the situation - clearly you are incapable of that.
Macca
Guest
As for the headline - it was designed to get people to think differently- to reassess their position - to be provactive. As for Nic Nat's abilities I am fully aware of them and love watching him play but that is the whole point of the piece - Naitanui is rated as one of the best ruckmen in the league and yet is stats aren't that different from the supposedly under-performing Kreuzer it is that contrast in perception that makes the article worth writing. It is especially interesting when the difference in style and athleticism means Kreuzer needs longer to mature and build his strength and endurance. Again I don't seriously think WCE should trade Naitanui - but Carlton shouldn't trade Kreuzer either.