2013 State of Origin: Game 3 preview

After two matches, and one victory each to New South Wales and Queensland, it comes down to what could be the most important State of Origin decider in years.

New South Wales will be smarting after losing heavily to Queensland in Game 2 in Brisbane, the third time since 2006 that this has happened after the Blues won the first game in Sydney under a new coach (notwithstanding Ricky Stuart’s stint with the Blues between 2011 and 2012).

And if the trend continues, Queensland will win this year’s State of Origin series, leaving the Blues with a lot of work to do if they are to contend once again in 2014.

But Blues fans will be hoping that this isn’t the case. The southerners have endured seven years of suffering, and not one single person under the age of eight has ever seen the Blues take a State of Origin series victory.

We’d have to go all the way back to 2005 to find the last time the Blues won a State of Origin series. Back then:

– John Howard was the Prime Minister of Australia
– George W Bush was the President of the United States of America
– Tony Blair was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
– Bob Carr and Peter Beattie were the Premiers of New South Wales and Queensland respectively
– Facebook and YouTube were only in their second and first years of existence respectively
– Twitter was not trending
– Missy Higgins was the most popular music artist in Australia
– Gotye was somebody who we never knew
– The Wests Tigers won the premiership
– The Sydney Swans won the AFL flag
– Roger Federer was dominating at will, and nobody knew who Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray was
– England regained the Ashes, and nobody knew who Kevin Pietersen was
– Michael Jackson was still alive

Now, let’s get to the match preview.

New South Wales versus Queensland
Wednesday July 17
8:00pm
ANZ Stadium, Sydney

New South Wales
Dugan, B Morris, Jennings, J Morris, McManus, Maloney, Pearce, Gallen (c), Farah (vc), Tamou, Lewis, Hoffman. Bird. Interchange: Fifita, Merrin, Reynolds, Watmough. 18th man: Woods. 19th man: Cordner.

In: McManus, Tamou.
Out: Nathan Merritt, Aaron Woods (dropped)

Queensland
Slater, Boyd, Inglis, Hodges, Tate, Thurston, Cronk, Scott, C Smith (c), Myles, McQueen, Thaiday, Parker. Interchange: Cherry-Evans, Gillett, Te’o, Papalii. 18th man: Lillyman. 19th man: Chambers.

In: None
Out: None

Just like the New South Wales Government are finally settling on a long-term Premier after a change of leaders, ranging from Bob Carr to Morris Iemma to Nathan Rees to Kristina Kenneally to Barry O’Farrell, the New South Wales State of Origin team appear to be finally settling in on a long-term coach in Laurie Daley, after Graham Murray, Craig Bellamy and more recently Ricky Stuart served unsuccessful tenures in what is arguably the hottest seat in rugby league at the moment.

It is a real shame that Ricky Stuart could not continue to return success to New South Wales, after his decision to rebuild another wrecked project in the Parramatta Eels.

Instead, he has left this job to former Canberra teammate Laurie Daley, under whom the Blues performed well defensively in Game 1 before being crushed in Brisbane in Game 2.

There are a few players who will undoubtedly be playing for their Origin futures on Wednesday night. Mitchell Pearce has even admitted that he could be playing for his future in the sky blue jumper after underperforming in many matches since his debut in 2008.

His combination with James Maloney in a Roosters side that is currently second on the ladder is one of the main reasons why they have been selected in the New South Wales side – but it seems they also cannot weave their magic against Queensland’s big four of Slater, Thurston, Cronk and Smith.

The Blues side will still be suffering from the absence of Jarryd Hayne, whose experience in past years was crucial to Blue hopes of victory. Without him, it is very likely the team will struggle in defence.

Josh Dugan appeared to have resurrected his career at the Dragons, but since a two-try debut against Parramatta in Round 10 he has underperformed.

The Blues will have to rely on him playing a great game if they are to have any chance of winning what will be the first decider in Sydney since 2008 (the third game of 2010 was already dead after Queensland won the first two matches that year).

Meanwhile, James McManus comes in for his first Origin match since 2009, after Nathan Merritt was dropped following a forgettable debut in Brisbane last month.

Now, let’s swing our focus to the Queensland side.

Not surprisingly, Mal Meninga has retained the same 17 that levelled the series at home last month.

Hopefully this will be the same side which helps retain the Origin shield for the Maroons for an eighth consecutive year.

But to do that they will have to overcome a poor recent record in Sydney, with the Maroons having enjoyed the home ground advantage in the last two Origin deciders in each of the last two years.

The Maroons have lost their last two matches in Sydney, but did win the aforementioned live decider in 2008.

Also, victory on Wednesday night would see Mal Meninga and his Queensland charges continue to cement their places as the greatest coach and team in the history of State of Origin.

The Maroons can sometimes be vulnerable to complacency, such as when they lost two home dead rubbers in 2007 and 2009 when they had the chance to clean sweep those series.

Additionally, they won last year’s decider by just one point – when they could have won by so much more.

Expect this crop of Queenslanders to get the job done on Wednesday night and help to keep the shield north of the border for an eighth consecutive year.

Stats that matter:
– For the first time since 2008, New South Wales will enter a home rubber with the series still alive. The last time a third rubber was played in Sydney, the 2010 series was dead (with Queensland eventually winning the series 3-0).

– New South Wales will also be hoping that it’s fourth time lucky as they desperately try to end one of rugby league’s worst hoodoos. Under Graham Murray, Craig Bellamy and Ricky Stuart (in his first year in a second stint), the Blues forced a series decider in their first year as coach, but ultimately lost it.

– Another series victory would see Mal Meninga continue his unblemished record of having never lost a State of Origin series.

– Johnathan Thurston will be playing his 27th consecutive State of Origin tie from debut (Game 2, 2005). He is the only player to have featured in each and every game of Queensland’s ongoing State of Origin series winning streak.

– Not one single player selected for New South Wales this year has experienced a State of Origin series victory.

– Likewise, only five players selected for Queensland this year (Billy Slater, Johnathan Thurston, Cameron Smith, Corey Parker and Ashley Harrison) remain from the last Queensland side to lose an Origin series, in 2005. Of those five, only Billy Slater did not play in that ill-fated decider that year.

The verdict:
Once again this match I feel will be decided in the halves.

As has already been alluded to, the New South Wales’ halves pairing of James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce will be put to the test against Queensland’s big 1, 6, 7 and 9 combination of Slater, Thurston, Cronk and Smith.

The pair are doing very well in a Sydney Roosters side which is headed to the finals, but it seems stage fright could get the best of them. The pair underperformed severely as the Blues were smashed in Game 2.

Also watch out for the duel between Justin Hodges and Michael Jennings in the centres – it will also be an entertaining showdown between two try-scoring freaks.

The Blues may have the home advantage, but I feel Queensland may have the experience of having done it all before.

Prediction:
Queensland by 10 points.