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Where Origin Game 3 will be won

12th July, 2013
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12th July, 2013
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Game 3 at ANZ stadium. The third straight Origin decider. Imagine yourself running out to face the roar of 80,000 diehard rugby league fans.

You turn to the south side of the stadium and see the Blatchy’s Blues, an army of blue wigs. The fireworks explode out of the ground and you think you are about to play the biggest game of your life.

How one error can mean losing. How one missed tackle can leak a try. How sometimes even giving it 110% won’t be enough.

You would feel nervous. Every player that goes out on Wednesday night will feel like that. But some players can handle the nerves, some players have been there before and Queensland have the majority of those players.

If the game comes down to the last 30 seconds Queensland will have the ability to stay calm and come up with the right plays and execute them well. NSW, I fear, will be nervous and lack structure.

The interchange
For a long time it was a case of put your best 13 on and then rest on the bench. Times have changed and the interchange bench is now one of the most underrated strategic weapons.

Both coaches will have to time the interchanges right. It is about bringing the hard running forward on when the opposition’s defence is getting fatigued.

For NSW this man is Andrew Fifita and for Queensland this man is Josh Papalii. We have seen how damaging they can both be to a defensive line in club games as well as the last Origin games.

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Another talking point is the utility. Last game Daly Cherry-Evans came on for Corey Parker and Josh Reynolds was supposed to come on at lock but ended up playing hooker.

Both these players are skilful and have proven themselves at club level. Reynolds brings energy and aggression while Cherry-Evans brings skill and a great running game.

Halves and hooker
Obviously Queensland have us in this catergory. I don’t think Cooper Cronk has really been himself this series, however Johnathan Thurston was back to himself in Game 2 and will most probably be hard to stop in Game 3. I’m sure Cronk will step up as well.

Fortunately, NSW has a better goal kicker in James Maloney, who has kicked 89% of goals this season, while Thurston has kicked only 69%.

Cameron Smith and Robbie Farah are very different hookers. Smith is a leader who calls out appropriate plays, stays cool and leads by example, with passion and confidence.

Farah on the other hand lets the stats do the talking. His whopping 64 tackles in Game 2 last year was an Origin record and if he plays 80 on Wednesday I think the number of tackles will be well up near that number. Farah also has a superb kicking game from dummy-half, can force a drop out and assisted NSW’s only try in Game 2.

Outside backs and fullback
While again it looks like Queensland have us in this department, the NSW backs deserve more credit than they are currently getting.

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The Morris twins are big, very fast and good defenders. Michael Jennings can pull of the occasional freakish try, Josh Dugan can break tackles and make linebreaks from nothing. James McManus will be targeted but I believe he will play a lot better than Nathan Merritt did as he can do more than just catch the ball and put it down.

Queensland have that very dangerous left side and they rely on Greg Inglis to draw the defenders (especially the winger) and pop the last pass to Darius Boyd, who is one of he best finishers in the game.

Thurston will also use Inglis as a decoy or will dummy to him, making the NSW defenders rush in his direction and then throw the cut-out pass to Boyd. If NSW are to stop this happening, McManus needs to stay on his wing while Josh Morris and Luke Lewis cover Inglis (Morris can do this by himself as he has proven time after time).

Dugan needs to shift from the behind in the middle of the field to the left edge to provide back up.

Forwards
It is very likely Paul Gallen and Greg Bird will play for NSW. The media just want to sell stories and that is why you hear different news about them all the time.

NSW’s forwards have to work extremely hard and need to create second phase play. Queensland devote more men to the tackle, making it harder for people like Trent Merrin to offload. If we can get the offloads away, our backs will have more room to weave their magic.

Obviously NSW has the advantage of agility and in the forwards we just about mach them in experience. Gallen, Ryan Hoffman and Merrin need to do the real grunt work. While this happends we need Bird and Lewis passing, stepping and putting on big hits to give us a more well-rounded pack, with James Tamou, Fifita and Anthony Watmough making sharp bursts, busting tackles and staying solid in defence.

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For Queensland, Matt Scott and Nate Myles will need to do the hard yards, with Sam Thaiday running hard lines at smaller NSW men.

NSW need to be very cautious of Corey Parker’s offload and Ben Te’o, Matt Gillett and Papaplii will aim to speed the game up coming off the bench.

While I will never doubt Queensland’s passion to win, surely the team that has lost seven in a row want it more.

If NSW start and finish strong, because the end of the game is where Queensland always get us, stop the left side attack, offload and (for the love of God) don’t do anything stupid, we should win.

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