So the news is out there that Benji Marshall will be leaving Wests Tigers and also the NRL, as he looks likely to stand by his word and not play against the only club he has ever played for.
Now unless an incredibly unlikely offer comes in from the English Super League or a big U-turn, Marshall is on his way to rugby union with the two major options being the NSW Waratahs and the Auckland Blues
First, let’s looks at the situation with the Tahs. By signing on with the Waratahs, he is able to stay in Sydney, his home for the past 10 years.
Syndey is also a bigger market, which offers him better financial incentives. If he signs with the Sydney side, the likelihood of highly lucrative off-season spells in Japan are likely.
For the Waratahs, he is another player to build the franchise on, helping them to gain traction in the incredibly tough Sydney winter sports market.
The issue is though, where does he fit in? The position most people would think he is likely to transition to is first five, yet Cheika has invested heavily in Bernard Foley this past year and it has started to pay real dividends.
Also, with Kurtley Beale likely to return and find the 15 jersey filled by the impressive Israel Folau, he might also be challenging Foley.
The Blues won’t offer the same financial incentives, but he is most likely going to have to take a cut whichever team he decides on and Sir John Kirwan will probably want him to get accustomed to the XV man game by playing NPC with Auckland, who have a space opened up with the news of Anscombe’s absence from the competition due to a shoulder surgery.
What the Blues will offer is a platform for Marshall to make a play at the Rugby World Cup 2015 squad and also a chance to go to the 2016 Olympics with the Sevens team.
What do the Blues get out of this? During the build up to the NFL Draft, the term ‘boom-or-bust prospect’ is bandied around by scouts about certain players. I think this NFL parlance fits the situation with Marshall well.
Noakes started off well with the Blues this year, but faded away, whilst Baden Kerr was bedding into his first season in Super Rugby. If the Blues put their chips on Marshall, they will be asking a lot of Piri Weepu, who will have to take up the role of the French half back ‘General’ role, where he will have to manage the game and do the goal kicking.
Marshall struggled as Tim Sheens tried to build more structure into his game, so how will he manage in the more limited space in union, especially in the steep learning curve that is New Zealand rugby.
And for the national side, he is going to have to battle one of the finest players of the professional era, regardless of position, Dan Carter, Aaron Cruden and Beauden Barrett to have any chance of making it into the World Cup squad.
But, whilst the past year or so has tarnished his reputation somewhat, Marshall, like Folau is a natural footballer and if there is a player who would make the switch at this stage of their career, it is Benji.
pogo
Guest
As a Blues fan, I'm hoping for Beauden Barrett
Winston
Guest
Its crazy how many 10s they've been through. No ones really clicked since Carlos.
Kebab
Guest
I'd rather benji than Beale. For Benjis sake he would learn faster and fit in better at the blues than the tahs. I'd love him at the tahs but No way he could fit under the salary cap
RedsNut
Guest
Who cares where he goes, as long as it's not to union. IMHO, at 28 he's too old (and as in the Sailor debacle) can't defend so who needs him. Folau has trouble with positioning himself in defence up to now, so BM would be at least 30 before he is any use.
Red Mullet
Guest
Something doesn't seem right with all this. I'm expecting some sharp turns in negotiations. Will Marshall and the Tigers kiss and make up??? Could it be just and only the money??? I smell a rat.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
If Benji has any dreams at all for playing for the All Blacks then it will be the Blues. If its just money then Waratahs
TommyM
Guest
I hope the Tahs pick him up and Foley can get a release to come down for the Rebels as planned previously. Where on earth will he play at the Tahs if he goes there? Would they seriously bench Foley for him? I doubt it. Why teams stockpile multiple players in the same position just baffles me. Lots of examples in Oz of players sticking with a team where they only ride the pine when they're clearly good enough to start at other clubs who need them.
Cantab
Guest
Yeah..rebels don't need to spend there doe on another high risk player, Unless they pick him up for a song, which won't happen.
jutsie
Guest
Apparently rebels are a front runner (going by the oz). As a rebs supporter will not be happy if this is the case. If they want a marquee player then keep joc otherwise do a jake white/brumbies and build from within.
cantab
Guest
Firstly, He wont play ten, its to hard to switch code at his age and expect a career at ten, look at JOC...ten take lots of time to learn. 12 and 13 are defensively the hardest positions in the game and his defence is not up to it. His only options are wing and fullback. Blues VS Tahs. Well the Tahs are subject to a salary cap and are chasing Beale and already have Folau on there books so not much room for spending. Also he will not receive any money from the ARU via a top up. VS the Blues who have more spare cash and are loosing Ali this season, plus the NZRU will stump up if they think he is All Black material. Seems pretty clear cut to me that he will be at the Blues or anther NZ team...if he goes to super rugby. France, japan still options.
atlas
Guest
a decider for the Blues will have to be whether the off-contract Beauden Barrett accepts their offer, and leaves the Hurricanes. I'd say he'd be their first choice for a long-term 10 - he turned 22 in May. NZ Herald listed some of the 10s for Blues since Spencer left: how about these ones - Orene Ai'i, James Arlidge, Luke McAlister, Tasesa Lavea, Isa Nacewa, Stephen Brett, Nick Evans, Jimmy Gopperth, Michael Hobbs, Piri Weepu, Gareth Anscombe, Chris Noakes and Baden Kerr.
peterlala
Guest
CR, good overview. Can't wait to see Benji.
niwdeyaj
Guest
Rebels? Surely they could offer Marshall the most financially now that they're not funding dumb and dumber? And surely they'd be on the lookout for a fly half? Not sure its the best environment for Benji to make the transition though... In any case, I hope the ARU don't fork out too much cash on him given he's at the back end of his career and no longer setting the world on fire with his form.