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I’ve felt like a video referee this week, looking at every possible angle, every stat, poring over the history books and dismantling player facts.
And I can’t find one solid reason why Queensland won’t go eight in a row in Sydney on Wednesday night.
No matter which way I turn it, twist it or tweak it – and even allowing for the Blues’ great record at ANZ Stadium – I can’t see NSW stopping this champion Maroon juggernaut, not yet anyway.
I’ll admit to some Queensland bias, and I may even be persuaded in my opinions in some small way by certain factors.
But even allowing for those, Queensland look morals to inflict more pain, misery and suffering on NSW and their tormented fans who’ve promised to make life hell for Mal Meninga’s men, just as they did in Origin I in Sydney last month when the Blues took the honours 14-6.
NSW’s forwards played magnificently that evening, clearly overshadowing Queensland’s pack who turned in one of their most lacklustre efforts during their seven-series streak.
Johnathan Thurston played with a groin injury — in hindsight one of coach Mal Meninga’s rare bad decisions.
JT’s presence in the team, though, is such that every player was behind his gamble, even though it backfired on them.
It ended up puting too much pressure on Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith behind a pack that was off its game.
Those things won’t be an issue in the Sydney decider. Any complacency that may have crept into Queensland’s game in Sydney is gone. They showed in Game 2 in Brisbane, with a fit Thurston at No.6 and a few changes, including the addition of bruising young forward Josh Papalii, that they have no intention of surrendering their proud streak.
In my opinion, Queensland simply have too much class, too much composure and too many proven game-breakers.
When it comes down to deciders, Queensland do it better. They boast far too much experience and have too many players like Greg Inglis, Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston, Billy Slayer, Justin Hodges, Darius Boyd and even veteran Brent Tate who can turn a game if there forwards hold their own which I’m sure they will.
NSW will unleash a new level of aggression in a relentless opening 20 minutes with a massive, sell-out, blue army baying for Queensland blood.
But stats like these are hard to ignore, especially at this level.
Only two of Laurie Daley’s 17 players – Luke Lewis (2004) and Anthony Watmough (2005) – have been involved in an Origin series wins, although Watmough only played in the losing side in the opening game and didn’t feature in the Blues’ two wins that clinched them their last Origin crown.
By comparison, Meninga, the most successful coach in Origin history, having never lost a series, has 13 players in his 17-man squad who know exactly what’s required to win a series.
Meninga’s side has played a combined 236 Origins with Smith (29) and Thurston (26) his most experienced campaigners.
The Blues players have 78 Origin caps in total.
With the genius of one Jarryd Hayne and the intimidation and inspiration leadership of Paul Gallen both missing thorugh injury, the bulk of the pressure falls onto new captain Robbie Farah to get the best out of his underdog troops – especially halves Mitchell Pearce, who’s copped a tsunami of criticism, and also Pearce’s offsider James Maloney, who after a solid debut in the comfort of Sydney fans, came up well short in Brisbane’s hostile environment in Game 2.
The Blues have the weapons. Michael Jennings is still yet to completely produce his A-game at Origin, but we all saw in a split second at Suncorp Stadium, he can carve up any side given the skinniest opening.
Fullback Josh Dugan is an enigmatic player more than capable of tearing any defence to shreds in a different, yet very similar, fashion to Greg Inglis.
Lewis will step up in Gallen’s absence. He’ll lead from the front while Daley will expect his young destroyer Andrew Fifita, who is in awesome club form, to iron out a few Maroon forwards. One such player is Queensland’s new hit man, Josh Papaliim who’ll be looking to inflict his own special body carnage on anything dress in blue that gets in his path.
Daley will also have devised a plan to help Maloney cope with the early onslaught after Sam Thaiday targeted him in Origin II and got Queensland rolling forward.
NSW have the class players to win, but for me, the $64,000 question is can they match Queensland’s proven record when it comes to winning the big clashes – and they certainly don’t come any bigger than Wednesday night’s do-or-die blockbuster.
I don’t think they can.
We’ve already seen two massive controversies from blow ups in Origins I and II as a result of the pressure on players to win at all costs.
Regardless of renewed warnings this week from officials that fisticuffs will see players sin binned, the electrified atmosphere on the night will override the super-charged players. As we’ve witnessed many times in the past, anything can happen in the volatile Origin arena.
One thing I do know, from witnessing so many Origins, is the scene is set for an absorbing and mesmerising 80 minute of high octane football with 34 elite athletes prepared and ready to give their last breath for their state and their teammates.
That’s why Origin is so very special. That’s why the players and the fans love it so much.
This is NSW’s best chance of ending its embarrassing drought since the 2008 decider.
Coincidentally that clash was also at ANZ Stadium.
Queensland won 16-10.
Buckle up for a real ball-tearer of a game.
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