The NRL top four is set in stone

The second most exciting time of the NRL season is here: the lead in to finals time. The finals format clearly favours the teams in the top four with the promise of home games and weeks off.

Currently the lowest team of the top four, the Melbourne Storm, are clear of the Bulldogs by three competition points though the Bulldogs are baying to be let in with recent performances.

Despite this the top four will likely remain the same though the order of the teams involved may change. Here is why.

Sydney Roosters (No.1)
At the end of the regular season the Roosters will be sitting on top of the NRL premiership much as the “phoenix-like” Bulldogs did last year.

While currently they sit second behind South Sydney the final six (6) rounds are more than kind to them.

Indeed, the Sydney Roosters do not have to leave the greater Sydney area for the rest of the competition with the furthest “away” game being at Centrebet Stadium in Penrith.

A lengthy car drive and traffic may not be great if the M4/5 clogs up but I think they’ll get there without too many hiccups.

They also have the luxury of only facing off against one other top four side in the finals six rounds, that being South Sydney in the final round.

No doubt they will up for the contest and their loss to Souths in the opening round of the season will be forgotten.

Vs Top Four Sides
They won’t have forgotten that they have lost to both South Sydney and Melbourne this season with the Melbourne defeat being in Sydney. They can however be buoyed by their double defeat of Manly. The lack of top four opposition in the final rounds may be a double edged sword come finals time.

South Sydney (No.2)
Souths managed to avoid having their player roster gutted by the Origin period, have largely avoided injury woes (save for that Inglis fellow) and seem to be cruising in first place. If the Burgess brothers can restrain themselves from on-field suspensions or off-field controversy then second spot should be cemented.

Why second and not first? South Sydney has a horror run versus top four sides to come.

They play all three, Melbourne, Manly and the Roosters before the end of the year.

Melbourne is the only away game of the three and it follows an away game in North Queensland.

Expect the Bunnies to slip to at least second by the end of the regular season. It is going to be a tough run home but great conditioning for finals football.

Vs Top Four Sides
They won’t have forgotten how Melbourne out Melbourne-d them earlier in the year. They should forget the Round 1 victory against the Roosters, both teams will be entirely different come Round 26.

They should be confident facing Manly at home after crossing the spit bridge and grinding out a great win at Brookvale in what was one of their best games this season.

Manly (No.3)
Currently travelling third on the table, Manly will likely finish third or fourth in the final round of the regular season.

Plagued by injury and representative football, Manly will be looking forward to the last two games of the year being at Brookvale. Indeed, the Manly only travel outside Sydney once in the final six rounds: to Canberra in Round 24.

If the Stewart brothers can remain uninjured Manly should retain third spot though points differential may mean a fourth place finish with Melbourne jumping them.

Vs Top Four Sides
The games against South Sydney and Melbourne in Rounds 23 and 25 are more than important for Manly. The Sea Eagles have not beaten one of the top four sides this year.

The closest they got was a draw with Melbourne. Geoff Toovey should be justifiably concerned with winning at least these two games or the other three teams in the top four will have the psychological edge come finals time.

Melbourne (No.4)
Pillaged by representative football the Storm admit to doing it hard mid season every year.

Like Manly with their team of ageing superstars (by no means old though), Melbourne also have to avoid injury to avoid missing the top four.

Last year the storm showed the league some new attacking and defensive structures come finals time, are they desperate enough yet to pull those new moves out before then?

With a five point gap between the Roosters and Manly/Melbourne it would take either the Rabbits or Roosters to fall off the pace dramatically for the Storm to place higher than third.

Vs Top Four Sides
Melbourne have not lost to a top four side this season. Whatever has happened during the Origin period the Storm will know that first round of the finals they can beat whoever they play in Sydney and probably will.

Manly are the only team in the top four to give them a real arm wrestle with a 10-all draw in Melbourne.

The struggle between now and then will be to fire up against non-top four sides including Canberra and Newcastle (both away games).

What the final six rounds offer spectators is a run home that will evidence the credentials of Manly, Melbourne and South Sydney. Those three teams will be tested with games both at home and away against fellow top four sides.

For the Roosters, their mettle won’t be tested until the finals.

This will leave their fans with a nervous wait to see if they will perform under the pressure of finals football in the face of teams that will have had pressure experience in the lead up.

While the new comers look strong (Roosters and Bunnies), the old warhorses (Manly and Melbourne) cannot be written off.