In a result that surprised most observers, Collingwood trounced their bitter ANZAC Day rivals to the tune of 79 points this past Sunday evening.
This result has shone a light on the form of the respective sides and in particular some of the contributors and non-contributors for both teams.
It’s easy to be reactionary but let us try to succinctly glean some short term implications from this game – I’ve used my set of formulas.
Collingwood – Best 3
Travis Cloke: Subjectively Cloke was enormous on the basis that wet conditions typically don’t suit his style of play. By my assessment he was worth 5.24 goals. This is slightly more in real terms that his nominal output of 5 goals.
The real key for Cloke was that every one of his 14 possessions was an effective possession and his five goals came without a miss. He took three contested marks, which is essentially his average but they came on a day when marking was difficult and this made him an even more significant player.
This is the game that Cloke should model his play on for the rest of his career. He was a lightning rod for the best opposition defenders, an efficient conduit for facilitating his teammates and crucially kicked accurately. Best on ground.
Ben Reid: Reid was second best on for similar reasons to Cloke. He was able to take contested marks and possession on a day when most people could not, magnifying his value. He was worth 4.64 goals in real terms, used the ball fairly well, took four contested marks and had two goal assists.
His value in real, objective terms was above his nominal output of goals however his value in a subjective sense is what makes him so important. Since 2010 Collingwood haven’t been able to organise perfectly the ruck/forward and second forward roles to perfection.
Quentin Lynch and Lachlan Keefe are important factors in this combination also but Reid’s ability to go forward as a second marking option and release pressure from Cloke is hard to quantify and makes an enormous difference to Collingwood’s chances of winning.
Lachlan Keefe: Keefe is the interesting one for me I ranked him as worth 2.6 goals in real terms which made him the third best player on the ground. Watching this game live it might have been easy to ignore his value because the ball spent less time at his end and his game is not an eye catching or spectacular one.
He took Scott Gumbleton completely out of the game, repelled almost every attack (in conjunction with Nathan Brown) and used the ball at 87% efficiency. This isn’t uncommon for Keefe who is usually very efficient by hand and foot. The fact that he is 200cm tall and it was wet underlines the significance of this stat.
He’s been very reliable in his three games this year and projects impressively as a long term defender. Additionally his ability to take a key forward means that Reid can play forward without robbing the backline of a key defender. In all these factors make him one of the most important players in the short and long term for Collingwood.
Essendon – Worst 3
It might seem unfair or reactionary to bash the Bombers after an unexpectedly big loss and at a time when on field performance is arguably not their main concern.
Their season has been great and if you look over at my blog you can see a spread sheet that shows the rankings of Bombers players this year. Nevertheless when you lose by 79 points there’s bound to be some ordinary players and these were the most ordinary in my opinion.
Travis Colyer: The worst player on the ground, his efforts cost Essendon 1.32 goals in real terms. Normally Colyer might come on as a sub and you would give him a pass for his performance. On this occasion he played the whole game but was just poor.
No doubt many would’ve expected a nimble player like Colyer to excel in the wet but the conditions called for aggressive, honest, contested play and Colyer simply does not have these weapons in his armoury. Eight possessions all of which were uncontested and only half of which were effective, highlights just how poor he was.
He has been around long enough to know what’s expected in a match and in conditions like he played in on Sunday and just didn’t show any backbone. I’d suggest he’ll be cut from the side this year or for next.
Dustin Fletcher: Although he wasn’t the most ineffectual player for the day (3 Collingwood players – Grundy, J Thomas and Macaffer added less value by my calculations and of course the aforementioned Colyer) Fletcher struggled badly in this game. I think he was responsible for costing the Bombers .56 in real terms and for once he looked his age.
Incidentally was he involved in the peptide program? Because his rubber band limbs suggest they didn’t take in any case. Looked slow and struggled to play on Reid or get across for intercept marks. Still in their best 22 but probably in the lower quartile now and at the end of the day tall defenders are not in short supply at Essendon.
Scott Gumbleton: Gumbleton cost his side 0.29 goals in real terms. It would be too easy to say ‘it wasn’t a day for big forwards, because for the Magpies it was an excellent day for big forwards and defenders. What is perhaps more accurate is that it was a high risk day.
If you took your chances, few though they may have been, your value would skyrocket and if not then it plummeted. This is probably true for low possession key position players on most days. Gumbleton’s season has been good for just 6 games, however he was dominated by Keefe and Brown and simply did not provide value at all.
Long term the question mark is still fitness, if he could just play a full season you might see some of his potential. Truthfully I still believe he’s a worthwhile if risky investment but I’m not his doctor and if he can’t play more than half a season in any given year he may go the way of Courtney Johns.
dahawkacup13
Guest
I reckon people are underestimating the pies, one thing people are tending to forget is that they have finally fixed their forward line and have settled their midfield. This Collingwood side that thumped a near full strength essendon side, having 63 inside 50's compared to their Anzac day match in which they only had 47, could achieve anything with a near full strength team (that is only weeks away from regaining Dale Thomas). If we look back at the rd 9 match with Sydney we can also note that the pies couldn't convert, having 54 inside 50's to the swans 45, it was obvious in the end that Sydney outplayed Collingwood though if the pies had had a full functioning forward line that could outplay Sydney's defense, maybe they could've pulled themselves to a closer, less overly exaggerated losing margin At this point only time will tell.. Saturday night should be a blinder.. without jumping on the 'oh let's rubbish Collingwood' bandwagon, I really hope they don't find form, the very last thing all current top 4 teams (including my beloved Hawks) need is an in form/consistent Collingwood.. Otherwise, (in my case) It could end up being 2011 all over again..
Michael
Roar Rookie
As a Pies fan, I was obviously thrilled by the win on the weekend, but, like others here, I still have major doubts as to what we'll be able to produce against the real top sides. Especially Hawthorn. Buckley is yet to coach the Pies to a win against the Hawks, and something tells me it won't happen this year. The Swans are also a very tough prospect. I take comfort from the fact that so many promising youngsters and rookies (Dwyer, Martin, Kennedy, Witts, Grundy, Thomas, etc) have come through in lovely fashion this year. I hope this year will, in hindsight, have served as a mini-rebuild for us while maintaining reasonable form (in the way that the Swans and Geelong have showed is possible). I would love it if the Pies could make another Prelim this year, but realistically, I think we will probably lose in a Semi-final after (hopefully) winning an elimination final against Richmond (most likely).
Avatar
Roar Guru
True, especially as they are about to run into a Sydney Swans side which not only dismantled them at the G earlier in the year, but are peaking at the right time of the season as the finals (and their premiership defence) looms.
Micheal
Guest
Back to reality for Collingwood next week.
Nick Croker
Guest
Having played a full 40 players this year (last time collingwood did that was 1989 and we know what happened in 1990...) the pies are bound to be inconsistent. I wouldn't be surprised if they go poorly against sydney and then turn their form around dramatically again the next week. Lack of consistency in selection will yield variable form but probably bodes quite well for the future. As for Steele being best on I realise lots of pundits gave him 3 votes and I agree he was in the top 5. I also agree that he's an outstanding talent and could be in the leagues best in years to come. I just thought Cloke deserved credit for not only for his accurate goal kicking but his efficiency full stop. He had 14 possessions and every one was effective. That he produced this on a slippery day A) is outstanding and B) just adds to the enigma that is Travis Cloke. No doubt on a perfectly dry day weeks from now he will shank everything out on the full. Any bombers fans with thoughts on the worst players? Or their best? I had hibberd (despite a turnover that resulted in a goal) Goddard and Heath Hocking as their best 3. Thought Watson was top 5 but didn't use the ball terribly well. Leave your thoughts over at www.truefootyvalue.com and follow @truefootyvalue.com for more stats and so forth
Andrew
Guest
Sydney with their extra million dollar salary in their cap should win every game. Any team with extra salary cap should win.
kick to kick
Guest
From what I saw Essendon were truly awfully woeful. A dramatic slide after a strong season. Maybe Collingwood pessured them into ineptitude. Or maybe the supplement saga did. Only next week against the Swans will tell if the Pies are really on the way back.
Andrew
Guest
Welcome back Collingwood, oh how I have missed you. Intent and attitude spot on tonight from the very beginning. I thought the weather was a blessing in disguise for us. Kicks 255 H/B 143 compared to them 182 - 173. How much better did we look Kicking the ball from half back instead of handballing coupled with the intense pressure and you have the old Collingwood. Keep kicking the thing boys!!!!
Andrew
Guest
That was brilliant from start to finish. Not in my wildest dreams did I think we'd win by 79 points in the end. The way we played today is the way we must aspire to play every week. This consists of relentless tackling pressure on the opposition and no longer zoning off our opponents, but rather force a contest and make our opponent accountable for every disposal. The intent was there from the start and you could tell that the Collingwood boys wanted to prove themselves to the Bombers who seemed to somewhat undermine us during the week indirectly as Collingwood's name got mentioned in the whole Essendon saga. Luke Ball's comment about being 'offended' was a sign that our playing group was angry and was out for vengeance. The whole team has made the fans very proud to support this fantastic club. It's strange that we can't beat the Suns at all, and we struggle to overcome GWS, yet we're able to smash the Dons. Clearly this has something to do with our mental attitude towards each game. If Collingwood is mentally switched on and ready to tackle like there's no tomorrow, we're an unstoppable force. Sidey was BOG as he's got the capabilities to be an absolute gun of the competition. Consistency is the key for Sidey but I do believe that we have an absolute gem of a player coming along. He's only 22 years of age so there's plenty of footy ahead of him, Ball was great in-and-under the contests again and you can see that his presence helps ease the workload of Beams, Swan and Pendles. Reid looks fantastic down forward and in the process he's able to free up Cloke and Keefe is making a very smooth return to AFL football now. I love watching the young kid play and for 203cm he's definitely an agile player to say the least. Also how on earth did Cloke kick 5.0. That's a rare occurrence but I'll definitely take that though. Great win. No doubt it was the first time in while we played as a unit, and not just as a unit but an aggressive unit. I got the feeling we were out for blood yesterday crowd included, and it was this take no prisoners aggressive and hard wet weather footy that allowed us the luxury of not just beating but smashing essendope. I hate robbing our back line of Reid and I wonder if it is a prudent move for the games to come, but who can doubt how much more potent we are up forward. If we are getting the ball foward but not kicking goals (as has been the case recently) then surely the benefit outweighs the loss. Is Keefe up to it? That question will be answered in the next two weeks but I would plead with bucks to start Reid forward next week and come out in our most attacking formation.