Each year in May an article comes out looking at the ladder positions at the end of round 7 and commenting on how rarely this does change.
I thought I would take the time to review the season since Round 7 and look at what has changed.
Team Round 7(p/w/d/l) Since Round 7 Current position
1. Geelong 7-7-0-0 11-7-0-4 3rd
2. Essendon 7-6-0-1 11-7-0-4 5th
3. Hawthorn 7-6-0-1 11-9-0-2 1st
4. Port 7-5-0-2 11-6-0-5 8th
5. Sydney 7-5-0-2 11-9-1-1 2nd
6. Fremantle 7-5-0-2 11-8-1-2 4th
7. Richmond 7-4-0-3 11-8-0-3 7th
8. Collingwood 7-4-0-3 11-8-0-3 6th
The top eight has remained unchanged, with only shuffling of teams up and down the ladder.
Back in May I predicted that the Crows and Blues would move into the eight and the Tigers and Port would drop out.
Thankfully for the competition (I like seeing bolters each season and new teams in the finals series) Ken Hinckley and Damian Hardwick will both be enjoying their first finals season as coaches.
The thing most people would be wary of is the best performed team since Round 7 has been the reigning premiers, the Swans, with nine wins, one draw and only the one loss to Port Adelaide.
In that time they have beaten fellow top eight aspirants in Collingwood, Richmond and Essendon, while they still have matches against Hawthorn and Geelong to come.
Both Geelong and the Hawks have defeated the Swans already in season 2013.
Hawthorn sit second, thanks to the loss to the Tigers on the weekend, and Fremantle are in third.
Surprisingly again, we see Richmond and Collingwood have outperformed the Cats and Bombers in the same period since Round 7. Maybe their finals flings won’t be as short as some are predicting.
The Cats are the only team in the current top four to have lost to teams outside of the eight this season, including Brisbane’s miracle match at the Gabba, the loss to the Crows at AAMI and last weekend’s loss at the hands of the ‘Roos.
That said, Geelong has also defeated all three of the other top four teams in Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle. Hawthorn has defeated Sydney and Fremantle.
A win against a fellow top four team has eluded both Sydney and Fremantle this season.
Sydney has two chances remaining to rectify this before the finals begin. Fremantle will only face one more top eight side in their final four games, which may leave a lot of people to still doubt their ability to go too deep into September.
A lot of people will agree it is highly unlikely this final eight will change without ASADA/AFL intervention. But what the results above highlight is the evenness of the competition this year among those teams in the finals.
Teams like North Melbourne and Carlton would be ruing their lost chances.
Although there are some exceptional teams in the top eight, and a lot of pundits have already narrowed it down to a race between Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong, I don’t think teams such as Fremantle, Collingwood or even Richmond, given their form over the past 11 matches, can be dismissed from making the final game of the season.
I have my fingers crossed for Freo to make their debut appearance on the last day in September.
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