Here are the AFL clubs’ final matches, if they are still in the finals hunt.
1. Hawthorn: They were a sho0-in for top spot until they lost to the Tigers on Saturday, and because of the closeness of the four, could drop to fourth if they lose two games. They have a big game in round 23 against the Swans, which may decide the top spot.
RD 20: St Kilda at Etihad
RD 21: Collingwood at MCG
RD 22: North Melb at Etihad
RD 23: Sydney at ANZ
2. Sydney: They face a very tough run home, which includes fixtures against the in-form Pies, the Cats and the Hawks. If the Swans can win three of their remaining four games, then they have a good chance to make the top two.
RD 20: Collingwood at ANZ
RD 21: St Kilda at SCG
RD 22: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
RD 23: Hawks at ANZ
3. Geelong: The big game for the Cats is against the Swans. If they make the top two, then the furthest they may need to travel is up the road. If not, then they will face daunting interstate trips to either Sydney or Perth in the first week.
R20: Port Adelaide, Simonds Stadium
R21: West Coast, Patersons Stadium
R22: Sydney, Simonds Stadium
R23: Brisbane Lions, Simonds Stadium
4. Fremantle: They have a very easy run home, and should easily account for the three bottom sides. The only danger game is against Port Adelaide, but since it is being played in Perth, Freo should win that too. The team could mathematically make it to first place if results go their way, with the permutations requiring Hawthorn to lose twice.
Second is a very realistic possibility if both the Cats and the Swans drop a game. The percentage is the only worry, but with easy games, they can boost that dramatically.
R20: Greater Western Sydney, Patersons Stadium
R21: Melbourne, MCG
R22: Port Adelaide, Patersons Stadium
R23: St Kilda, Etihad Stadium
5. Essendon: It looks like the off-field saga has finally caught up with the Bombers. It is still not known whether Essendon will be allowed to compete in this finals series, but if they are, it seems unlikely that they will make the top four. On current form, the Bombers should lose to Richmond and North Melbourne.
R20: West Coast, Etihad Stadium
R21: North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium
R22: Carlton, MCG
R23: Richmond, MCG
6. Collingwood: They still have an outside chance to make the top four, but would need to win all four games including tough clashes against Swans and Hawks. Should they win their other two matches, they would host a final at the MCG in the first week against either Essendon or Richmond in front of more than 90,000 fans. That would be some game!
R20: Sydney, ANZ Stadium
R21: Hawthorn, MCG
R22: West Coast, MCG
R23: North Melbourne, MCG
7. Richmond: They probably have the biggest chance of winning the Premiership from outside the four after a win against the Hawks. They should win their remaining four games and make fifth. However, if Sydney lose three games then Richmond will be in the top four. A semi-final is a pass mark for the Tigers this year, and anything more is a bonus.
R20: Brisbane Lions, MCG
R21: Carlton, MCG
R22: Greater Western Sydney, Skoda Stadium
R23: Essendon, MCG
8. Port Adelaide: Angus Monfries’ big off-spinner has spun Port Adelaide into the finals. Eighth spot is now their’s to lose, and two wins should be enough to keep Port in the eight. They could go higher, but face tough games against Geelong and Freo (both away). They should be heading to the G to take on the Tigers in week 1 of the finals, and who knows, maybe make a semi-final?
R20: Geelong, Simonds Stadium
R21: Gold Coast, AAMI Stadium
R22: Fremantle, Patersons Stadium
R23: Carlton, AAMI Stadium
9. Carlton: After the loss to Fremantle, Carlton are now hoping for ASADA to gift them a finals’ berth. Their only chance to take eighth spot is if they can win two games and then beat Port in round 23, a hard task for a side that is dreadfully out of form. If they lose this weekend, then it might be time to start planning for a September holiday.
R20: Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium
R21: Richmond, MCG
R22: Essendon, MCG
R23: Port Adelaide, AAMI Stadium
10. North Melbourne: The only chance that North have of making the eight is if Essendon lose points and can get above Carlton. There are no easy games for the Roos, but the team needs to win three to make ninth spot. Therefore, it looks really out of their hands.
R20: Adelaide, AAMI Stadium
R21: Essendon, Etihad Stadium
R22: Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium
R23: Collingwood, MCG
11. West Coast: It’s probably time to plan an early holiday for the Eagles. They are on the same number of points as North, so they mathematically still have a chance, but are ravaged by injury and have a poor percentage.
R20: Essendon, Etihad Stadium
R21: Geelong, Patersons Stadium
R22: Collingwood, MCG
R23: Adelaide, Patersons Stadium
All the other sides cannot make the finals.
Therefore, the predicted final eight (presuming Essendon don’t lose points) are:
1. Hawthorn
2. Sydney
3. Geelong
4. Fremantle
5. Richmond
6. Collingwood
7. Essendon
8. Port Adelaide
That would mean that week one of the finals would look like this:
Hawthorn vs Freo
Sydney vs Geelong
Richmond vs Port Adelaide
Collingwood vs Essendon
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